Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bethel, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...
-Warming trend through the weekend. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s today increase into the mid to upper 60s Friday and to near 70 this weekend for Interior valleys.

-Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening along elevated terrain in the White Mountains, Fortymile Country, and Northern Interior south of the Brooks Range. Thunderstorms possible in the Fortymile Country and near the Canadian border Thursday and Friday. Thunderstorm risk increases for much of the Interior Sunday and Monday.

-Some light showers remain in the Central Interior and diminish Thursday. Isolated showers possible each afternoon across the Interior into next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
-Warming trend through the weekend. Highs near 50 in the Western Interior today increase to the upper 50s by Friday and low 60s this weekend.

-Scattered to numerous showers in the Southwest Interior and Yukon Delta through Thursday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
-East Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph west of Point Barrow and 10 to 20 mph east of Point Barrow.

-Areas of low stratus persist through the weekend.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 530 dam upper level low moves into the Gulf of Alaska this evening. Ridging builds in the Interior today and disrupts the broad troughing pattern seen over the first half of the week. An Arctic low and the low in the Gulf of Alaska slowly chip at the front keeping it from building much stronger through the end of the week. Under the ridge temperatures across the Interior and West Coast increase with highs rising about 10 degrees by Saturday for most places. As the lows chip away at the ridge additional instability is generated which will help generate isolated thunderstorms across the Interior each afternoon and evening through the end of the week.

FIRE WEATHER
Isolated thunderstorms expected in the Fortymile Country and White Mountains Wednesday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms forming along elevated terrain of the Central Interior around the Dalton Highway and Koyukuk Valley. Thunderstorm chances continue Thursday and Friday with isolated storms possible in the Fortymile country Thursday and in the Fortymile Country and upper Kuskokwim Valley Friday. A strengthening ridge over the Interior will cause a warming trend into the weekend with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s today increasing to the upper 60s to near 70 this weekend.
Minimum RHs in the upper 20s to mid 30s in the Interior today decrease slightly with building temperatures to the mid 20s. Winds remain generally calm in the Interior through the weekend.

Sunday and Monday sees the ridge begin to break down in the Interior which leads to greater thunderstorm potential Sunday and Monday. The finer details are still uncertain, but increased thunderstorm potential across the Interior is expected when the ridge begins to break down.

HYDROLOGY
Degraded ice remains in place at the mouth of the Yukon River.
Snowmelt has begun in the Porcupine watershed in Canada and water is starting to pool on the ice of the Porcupine River. Tributaries are rising more rapidly today after strong melt on Sunday, but the ice cover remains almost entirely intact on the Porcupine in Canada. Between the border and the Yukon River ice is degrading with some areas opening up.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Sunday into Monday sees movement in the pattern with a 520 dam low moving through the Bering Sea and a 516 to 526 dam low moving through the Arctic which will force ridge breakdown in the Interior. As the ridge breaks down a large spike in instability will increase thunderstorm potential across the Interior for Sunday and Monday. The low previously in the Gulf will likely wrap around the approaching 520 dam low as a strong shortwave feature causing an easterly wave in the Interior increasing thunderstorm potential further Monday. Ridge breakdown and the easterly wave will lead to elevated thunderstorm potential early next week. We will continue to monitor this feature as it develops.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-811-850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.