Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sunrise, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A broad upper low remains over the Bering this morning, its front now lifting into the Southcentral gulf coast. Ongoing scattered showers will persist over the Bering and Aleutians, beneath the low. Scattered shower chances will also continue across Southwest Alaska, which remains downstream of the low in the path of expected shortwaves. One such shortwave will track across the Alaska Peninsula into Southwest Alaska on Monday with a weak surface low lifting along the Southwest coast. Expect to see an uptick in southeasterly winds, especially out of the Kamishak Gap up into the western Kuskokwim Valley late in the day. Late Tuesday into Wednesday the next deepening upper low moves into the Aleutians with a front reaching the Southwest Coast by Wednesday evening. While the current low over the Bering is weakening, general troughing will continue to bring multiple disturbances across the Aleutians and into Southwest Alaska on an almost daily basis. Long term model guidance shows little to no change in the overall pattern, with unsettled weather and rain chances persisting into the latter half of next week.

-BL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

A broad upper-level trough over the Bering Sea extending into the Gulf looks to remain in place through at least early to mid next week. This will support continued unsettled conditions across much of southern Alaska.

By midweek, focus shifts farther west as the active Bering Sea pattern continues. Another low is expected to move off Kamchatka, though model guidance remains split on its track. The European/Canadian models keep the low a bit farther north of the Aleutians, while the GFS favors the low just to the south of the Aleutian Chain. Regardless of the exact track, unsettled conditions are expected to persist across the Aleutian Chain as this system and its associated front progress eastward through Friday.

LM



AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Winds will turn northerly and diminish as the southeasterly winds coming out of Turnagain Arm turn down Cook Inlet by 13-15Z increasing the potential for LLWS as strong southeasterly winds aloft continue over the Chugach Mountains.
Turnagain Arm winds will ramp back up by late Sunday morning or early afternoon with south-southeasterly winds working back into the terminal through Sunday night. Chances for rain showers increase late Sunday as the upper trough lifts through.