Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sunrise, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A weakening surface low off of the Kuskokwim Delta coast and its broad trough axis extending across the southern Bering continues to promote a widespread area of showers and low stratus across the Bering. This system will continue to weaken and move inland as a ridge builds in over the Bering from the west. Minimal rain chances and a low stratus deck is expected across Southwest Alaska through Saturday, with the greatest chance for precipitation coming in the mountains and the Kuskokwim Valley.

Further west, a weakening low pressure system and its associated front moves across the western Aleutians for Saturday morning into Saturday night, giving the area a short window of rain and gusty winds. The front is expected to fall apart by early Sunday morning as the ridge in the Bering quickly steers the low south into the North Pacific. Attention then shifts to the end of the short term period where a more impressive Kamchatka low pressure system approaches the western Bering. Heavier precipitation and the potential for gale-force winds accompanying this low is expected for the western Aleutians by Monday afternoon into Tuesday.



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The broad upper level trough stretches from Siberia across the Bering Sea and Mainland Alaska. It will be undergoing significant changes to line up over Western Alaska through the forecast period. In the West, a ridge builds over the Aleutians from the North Pacific, changing the tracks of shortwaves slipping through the pattern. A weaker ridge builds into the Eastern Interior through the week. Model guidance with mostly ECMWF and GFS remains in decent agreement during the changes, with a bit less uncertainty aligned with the smaller details through Friday.

Scattered showers continue over most of the Southern Interior. A slight chance of more convective activity is possible in the warmest zones in Eastern Alaska. The main weather producers will be marching over the Southern and Western portions of the state through Friday. A well developed Central Kamchatka surface low and front pushes across the Western Aleutians and Bering. Moderate rain and some locally gusty offshore winds ride with the frontal passage before diminishing across the Eastern Aleutians late Wednesday. A second developed North Pacific low and front approaches the Western Aleutians for Wednesday. Widespread rain with the front sweeps across the Aleutians and Bering before the system recurves towards the Alaska Peninsula and North Pacific for friday. A strong third low and front awaits in the wings for the Western parts of the state for the following weekend.

- Kutz



AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will generally prevail through the TAF period along with light winds. Westerly winds this afternoon and evening will become more southerly overnight. Ceilings are also expected to lower overnight, with MVFR ceilings possible by early Saturday morning along with a chance for very light rain. Any lower clouds early Saturday morning should lift by late morning.
Light winds will then increase out of the south with gusts around 20 kt possible by Saturday afternoon.