Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sunrise, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday morning)...

Satellite imagery this morning shows a low pressure system continuing to spin in the southern Gulf of Alaska with a transient and weak upper-level ridge over the southwest interior. A shortwave trough is digging southward across Western Alaska this morning as the base of this trough makes it over Southwest Alaska through today. This feature, combined with weak waves rotating around the Gulf low, will help to kick off another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The best chances for isolated thunderstorms to develop will be along the eastern slopes of the Kuskokwim, Kilbuck, and Ahklun Mountains, as well as along the Western Alaska Range. Rain will continue overnight tonight along the Western Alaska Range and upper Aleutian Range as the atmosphere stabilizes from this afternoon and evening's convection.

Beginning Monday, a secondary trough, stronger than today's, will dig southward over Southwest Alaska. An attendant cold front, also moving south with the trough, will deliver another round of rain mostly to the southwestern interior. The airmass accompanying this feature is relatively cold, and temperatures across the Kuskokwim Valley and along the Western Alaska Range will struggle to get much higher than 60 degrees Monday and Tuesday. This relatively cooler air at the surface, in conjunction with cloud cover, should hinder thunderstorm formation both Monday and Tuesday. The front weakens by Tuesday morning as light showers make it to Iliamna by then. Rain tapers off by Tuesday afternoon across Mainland Southwest with a quiet and dry day expected for Wednesday.

Farther out west, flow remains out of the north across the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain due to the low in the Gulf of Alaska and high pressure centered just south of Kamchatka. The result of this pattern continues to be low stratus, fog, and misty conditions across much of the Bering, including the Bering side of the Alaska Peninsula, the Pribilof Islands, and along the Aleutian Chain.
Expect the core of the high pressure ridge to begin moving eastward Monday. The ridge will move over Shemya by Monday afternoon and across Adak/Atka by Tuesday evening into Wednesday.
The challenge with the movement of this ridge is tracking any fog development underneath it. There are indications that this ridge will continue moving east through the day Wednesday and Thursday, which could open the door for more in the way of unsettled weather in the form of a North Pacific low to send its front into the western Bering and Western Aleutians late Wednesday into early Thursday. This will be something to watch down the road.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

An upper level Arctic trough drops south across the Southern Mainland Monday afternoon and Tuesday, tracking northwest to southeast across Southwest and then Southcentral Alaska. A broad low will develop at the base of the trough in the Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday. There remains some uncertainty as to where the low will end up, with some models pushing the low towards Yakutat, while the GFS stays on a western track towards the Prince William Sound through Friday. There is fair confidence for widespread light rain showers as the trough tracks across the Mainland, on Tuesday, with the chance for drier conditions on Wednesday as the trough exits to the east. Multiple additional shortwaves may produce periods of light rain showers Thursday and Friday for both Southwest and Southcentral. Comparatively cooler temperatures Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon with the trough, with the chance for slightly above normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.

A North Pacific low looks to push south of the Alaska Peninsula late Friday night into early Saturday morning, with its front moving into the southern Gulf of Alaska later on Saturday. There is still a fair amount of model discrepancies regarding exact track, however, they are is decent agreement on the Friday night/Saturday morning timeframe. This may promote a wetter weekend for portions of Southern Alaska.

KM

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.
Southeast winds blowing out of the Turnagain Arm could briefly let up this morning, but will return by the afternoon hours. However, expect winds to stay considerably weaker compared to yesterday.
There will also be a chance for showers spilling over the coastal mountains to reach into the terminal this morning, but it will likely not amount to much more than sprinkles.