Sunday, January24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tatitlek, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:34AMSunset 4:48PM Sunday January 24, 2021 7:32 AM AKST (16:32 UTC) Moonrise 12:24PMMoonset 6:39AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ128 Valdez Arm- 352 Am Akst Sun Jan 24 2021
Today..N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Tonight..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon night..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue through Wed..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Thu..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tatitlek, AK
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location: 60.9, -146.7     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 241436 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 536 AM AKST Sun Jan 24 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A narrow longwave trough spans along an axis from the Bering Strait all the way down to the Northern Gulf this morning, and the base of this trough is now closing off into a separate upper level low. The upper level ridge that has been the primary weather driver of much of the mainland for the past few days has become mostly cut off from the flow and has drifted well north up towards the Brooks Range. A small, tightly wound surface low that has been the subject of much scrutiny over the past day or so now sits near Middleton Island underneath the developing closed upper wave. The deformation band associated with the low and the remnants of a front the low developed on yesterday morning brought several inches of snow to the western Kenai Peninsula Saturday afternoon and evening, with up to 6 inches of new snowfall reported in Homer.

The dry cross-barrier flow north of the low has held off most of the more intense snowfall in the Anchorage bowl over much of the past 24 hours. However, a subtle northerly wave coming in with a push of northwest flow is now spreading a new round of snow into the Mat-Su valleys from north to south. This quick round of ongoing snow should finally bring around an inch or so of new snow accumulation this morning across the lower elevations from Palmer to Anchorage (and a few inches to the upper hillsides) before it clears out from northwest to southeast throughout the day today.

Out west, an upper ridge and associated anticyclonic jet streak extend across the southern Bering and most of the Aleutian Chain. A gale force low is just now crossing into the Bering from the North Pacific close to Attu, and its occluded front drapes across the central Bering with a frontal triple point near the crest of the ridge, or in the vicinity of Nikolski. A weakly unstable and showery regime exists behind the frontal boundary and near the low with gale force winds persisting south and west of the center roughly between Kiska and Attu. Northwest flow just south of the stationary trough axis is advecting cooler air into the interior Southwest. Moisture trapped at the low levels by a strong temperature inversion is supporting low clouds and areas of fog for parts of the area this morning.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models are in very good synoptic agreement through the middle of next week, and forecast confidence is therefore moderate to high. One point of contention will be where fog and low stratus develops over some mainland valleys and low elevations for parts of Southcentral by this evening. Model soundings show favorable profiles for fog or very low clouds to develop at some point across the Copper River Basin and along the coast of the Cook Inlet or Knik/Turnagain Arms by late tonight into Monday. This may also lead to discrepancies in temperatures that models may not be capturing, with areas that see persistent fog and stratus possibly remaining much warmer than what guidance suggests as radiational cooling is inhibited. Similar issues may arise over the next day or so across the Southwest with the shifting regions of stubborn low clouds already in place.

AVIATION.

PANC . Snow will continue to bring MVFR conditions with brief periods of IFR ceilings and visibility possible with any more moderate snowfall as is passes through. Conditions should improve markedly as snow ends by midday today, and expect MVFR ceilings and VFR visibility from there on through the evening. However, fog and low stratus coming off of the Knik Arm may move into the terminal by late tonight, bringing back the potential for IFR ceilings and possible visibility restrictions. Light winds will persist throughout the period.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Light snow will linger from the Susitna Valley south across the Kenai Peninsula this morning before tapering off by early afternoon. The snow is a result of an upper-level wave dropping south from the Susitna Valley coupled with cold air advection working in from the northwest in the wake of an area of low pressure sliding into the eastern Gulf. Snow totals are expected to be generally light, with another one to two inches of accumulation expected this morning. Upwards to 4 to 6 inches of snow is still possible for favored upslope areas, including the Anchorage Hillside.

As this wave departs, outflow winds will begin to ramp up in intensity from Seward to Whittier. Northerly winds will also be on the increase across Prince William Sound, including Valdez, and Thompson Pass later today. Gales will also continue throughout the day across the Barren Islands.

The biggest challenge in the short term forecast will be the potential for low stratus and/or fog over Cook Inlet and across the Copper River Basin overnight tonight though Monday morning due to low-level moisture remaining in place along with clearing skies and light winds. The outflow winds along the coast will diminish by Monday morning as an area of low pressure moves across the southern Gulf and the flow turns easterly along the immediate Southcentral coast. This pattern could also keep any lingering low stratus over Cook Inlet and the Copper River Basin from completely scouring out, resulting in another round of patchy fog overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. The outflow winds are expected to ramp back up late Monday into Tuesday as the low moves east and the cold, northerly flow reestablishes itself.

Temperatures during through the short term will begin to trend downward as colder air from the interior filters across Southcentral. Low temperature Tuesday morning could be the coldest we have seen in nearly a month, especially if any lingering stratus and fog is scoured away.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Southwest AK is currently catching a break in the weather, with all of the action in the Western Bering right now. Just some low level cloud cover and isolated patchy fog exist from onshore flow off the Bering. Southwest Alaska will remain largely quiet for the next few days. Tonight into tomorrow, a slowly approaching front in the Bering will get hung up along the coast and decay in place for a day or so. Just some light snow showers are expected with this weakening front along the coast. Temperatures for interior areas will continue to cool and we did drop them a few more degrees tonight. So, we're looking at a return to winter conditions for interior areas with generally quiet weather and high confidence in the forecast.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

The next low pressure system has arrived in the Western Bering. It's center is currently located over Attu Island. A tight pressure gradient around this low is making for some strong winds, with storm force winds immediately around the low center this morning and wide swaths of gales with this system. Another round of storm force winds is expected in the Western Aleutians tonight. This area of storms has been expanded tonight as the low looks to maintain is strength. This low will slowly move north and stay at least a gale force low. It is also sending a front across the Bering that models continue to slow, so we reflected this in the latest forecast. The front will then hang up along the Southwest Coast and Eastern Aleutians, producing snow across the area.

A North Pacific low will develop today just south of the Eastern Aleutians. It is currently under development, seen as an open wave on satellite with its northern end moving into the Eastern Aleutians this morning. When this wave develops into a low, it will pull cold air south from the Bering, creating storm force winds south of the Eastern Aleutians tonight and tomorrow. This push of cold air will also produce blowing snow across the Eastern Aleutians. At this time, there does not appear to be enough cold air to really get snow blowing around, so it should not reduce visibility enough to warrant and advisory.

The next low moves into the Western Bering on Tuesday. Confidence is high it will be a large storm force low. It should be noted that hurricane force gusts near this low are also possible. We will continue to update the forecast for this system, especially to see if the winds need to increased with this low. Stay tuned.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5): Tuesday through Thursday.

Gulf of Alaska: Small model variance, but forecast confidence is good. Light northerly winds for the Gulf, except along the Alaska Peninsula where a trough brings northwesterly small craft winds and waves through the Barren Islands and near Sitkinak into the Western Gulf, diminishing Wed. Wave heights over the Gulf to 19 feet, subsiding Wed. A front enters the Western Gulf Wed and moves to the Central Gulf Thu. Southerly small craft winds with the front through Thu.

Aleutians/Bering: Small model variance, but forecast confidence is good. A strong North Pacific low and front moves over the Bering through Thu. Widespread storm force winds and waves with areas of hurricane force winds with the wind wrapped low. This system diminishes to widespread high end gale force winds with local areas of storm force winds spreading over the Bering and to the Alaska Peninsula for Thu. Wave heights to 44 feet on the Pacific side and 33 feet bering side spreading north and east subsiding Thu.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday) .

Model solutions remain consistent with 2 key features in the long term. On Wednesday, a deep low over the western Bering combined with a strong upper level ridge over the Gulf will create a very amplified pattern. Stormy conditions can be expected across much of the Bering and Aleutians Wednesday as the low tracks to the northeast. This low will ultimately suppress the ridge, pushing it southward, however it is not likely to entirely displace it. Effectively, this will create a more zonal pattern, allowing for active weather across Southcentral for the end of next week as the upper level jet transports remnant energy from the Bering eastward. At this time, models are suggesting the development of a stout triple point low in the vicinity of Kodiak Island next Thursday into Friday. By the weekend, this low will have moved into the eastern Gulf, and a much colder airmass looks to arrive across much of the state by Saturday.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Storm Warning: 155,178. Gale Warning: 130,131,132,138,351,352,150,165,170-177,185. Heavy Freezing Spray: 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . AS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . TM SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . BB MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/KO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLIA2 - Bligh Reef Light, AK 11 mi32 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 1003.6 hPa (+1.4)
POTA2 - Potato Point, AK 11 mi32 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9 35°F 1004.4 hPa (+1.3)
MRKA2 - Middle Rock Light, AK 13 mi32 min ENE 2.9 G 2.9 34°F 1004.3 hPa (+1.4)
46060 - West Orca Bay 36NM South Southwest of Valdez, AK 23 mi42 min W 9.7 G 9.7 40°F 41°F2 ft1003.3 hPa (+1.2)
VDZA2 - 9454240 - Valdez, AK 24 mi44 min NNE 1 G 1.9 42°F1004.2 hPa
46061 - Seal Rocks 55NM South of Valdez, AK 46 mi42 min E 1.9 G 3.9 39°F 41°F6 ft1003.9 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for Valdez, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdez 2, AK29 mi36 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy28°F28°F100%1006.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAVD

Wind History from AVD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3CalmN3CalmN3NE4W3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmNE3S4S3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmE3CalmCalmE4S3S3N3N3CalmCalmCalmE3E4CalmS5Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Ellamar, Tatitlek Narrows, Valdez Arm, Alaska
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Ellamar
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:09 AM AKST     5.38 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:39 AM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:19 AM AKST     10.91 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:22 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:24 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:35 PM AKST     1.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:36 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 11:08 PM AKST     8.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.16.45.75.45.66.37.6910.210.910.79.78.1642.31.21.223.55.36.988.5

Tide / Current Tables for Landlocked Bay, Port Fidalgo, Alaska
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Landlocked Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:24 AM AKST     5.46 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:38 AM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:21 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:34 AM AKST     10.91 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:24 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:35 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:54 PM AKST     1.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:19 PM AKST     8.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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76.55.95.55.66.27.38.69.910.810.8108.66.74.72.81.51.21.72.94.66.37.68.2

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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