Sunday, May31, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tatitlek, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:31AMSunset 11:22PM Sunday May 31, 2020 7:57 AM AKDT (15:57 UTC) Moonrise 2:16PMMoonset 2:50AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ128 Valdez Arm- 342 Am Akdt Sun May 31 2020
Today..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
Mon night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue through Thu..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tatitlek, AK
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location: 60.9, -146.7     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 311257 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 457 AM AKDT Sun May 31 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The pattern remains amplified as a large upper ridge extends along the west coast of North America into the northeastern Alaskan Interior. A broad upper trough currently extends from eastern Siberia and across the Bering/Aleutians. A closed upper level low is currently weakening over the eastern Gulf of Alaska while gradually weakening. A developing low is currently near 49N 167W and is moving northeastward. Water vapor imagery shows the trough-axis associated with this low changing from a positive to a negative tilt which is more conducive to cyclogenesis. An occluded front associated with this low is currently moving northeastward across the eastern Aleutians into the AKPEN. This front will bring rain to the eastern Aleutians northeastward through the APKEN.

At the surface, radar imagery shows showers moving southwestward across the Kuskokwim Valley into the Kuskokwim Delta. Another area of showers is moving southwestward across the AKPEN. Middleton Island radar shows showers moving westward across the northern Gulf. Temperatures continue to remain above normal due to the aforementioned Rossby Wave pattern with upper level ridging extending over the Alaskan mainland.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

The pattern remains amplified across the region with upper level ridging along western North America into mainland Alaska while upper level troughing persists across eastern Siberia through the Bering/Aleutians. Teleconnections (oscillations that effect the long wave pattern) support a change in the orientation of the Rossby Waves (long wave pattern) over the next week. During the next week the Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) will change from the positive to negative phase while the Eastern Pacific Oscillation will change from the negative to the positive phase. At the same time, Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) will change from the positive phase to the negative phase. The ECMWF, GFS and GEM ensembles reflect these phase changes of the WPO, EPO and PNA and are in good agreement with the 500 mb height forecast as they show upper troughing develop over the eastern portion of the Alaskan mainland while upper ridging develop over the Bering/Aleutians, extending into Southwest Alaska. The result of this pattern change will allow for a warming trend across the Bering/Aleutians into Southwest Alaska over the next week while a cooling trend is to be expected across the eastern portions of the Alaskan mainland (Copper River Basin). This pattern will also allow for low pressure to more likely develop in the eastern Gulf as this location will be under an upper trough.

On the synoptic scale, guidance is in good agreement with respect to the placement and intensity of the aformentioned developing low that is moving northeastward over the next 1-2 days and then in fair agreement on day 3. The ECMWF appears to have a fast bias as the low center is much farther to the northeast on day 3 than the rest of guidance. Due to this forecast confidence remains high through Monday evening and then fair on Tuesday.

On the mesoscale, high resolution models were favored to better resolve local effects such as the Turnagain Arm wind.

AVIATION. PANC . Conditions will remain VFR through the TAF period. There is a chance of southeasterly gusts between 15-20kts through 16z today. As pressure gradients increase this afternoon in Turnagain Arm with the potential for up-inlet flow, there is the chance for southeasterly Turnagain winds after 00z. As the up-inlet flow weakens with down-inlet flow developing, these Turnagain winds are expected to ease after 14z.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

An upper low which has been over the Gulf of Alaska over the last several days moves slowly north and weakens tonight. A secondary long wave trough moves north into the Gulf on Monday with a new upper low center developing. As a result, broad easterly flow continues across Southcentral through Monday. Embedded Easterly Waves in the upper flow track west bringing periods of showers or rain through tonight. Even though the thermal trough weakens and slips north, there still may be enough instability over the western Copper River Basin/Talkeetna Mountains to kick off a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A weather front, associated with the north moving upper long wave, heads north toward Kodiak and the Gulf on Monday. This system will bring rain to Kodiak Island and perhaps the eastern Kenai Peninsula. Showers are expected elsewhere across Southcentral.

A weak coastal ridge and lower pressure inland increase pressure gradients along Turnagain Arm this evening. So expected gusty easterly winds to develop and likely clip south and west Anchorage before diminishing overnight tonight. Winds will likely develop again across Turnagain Arm and bend into town Monday afternoon as the coastal ridge strengthens some. Gusty southerly winds can also be expected along the Copper River.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Rainfall continues this morning across the Alaska Peninsula and the Kuskokwim Valley and Delta as seen on radar. Rainfall will continue throughout the day, with gusty winds possible, as upper level shortwaves continue to influence the area. Weak instability will be present this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon for the northern parts of the Kuskokwim Delta and Valley which will provide another chance for thunderstorm development in these areas. Temperatures look to be cooler today than they have been and will continue to cool into Monday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

A front associated with a low pressure system south of Dutch Harbor is bringing gusty winds and rain to the eastern and central Aleutians as confirmed by METAR observations. These winds will continue to strengthen throughout the day, with the anticipation being that gale force will be reached later this morning. These winds will weaken to small craft before Monday morning, as the low remains nearly stationary south of Dutch Harbor. After this, the low will propagate eastward towards the Alaska Peninsula bringing continued rainfall to the eastern Aleutians and the AKPEN.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5). Gulf Of Alaska: A weak surface low situated in the northern Gulf on Tuesday will dissipate by Wednesday as it lifts north and west. Easterly small craft advisory winds associated with this system will also diminish by Wednesday. Areas of rain will continue across the northern half of the Gulf through Wednesday, reinforced by a secondary surface trough moving through the Gulf. Weak ridging then develops over the Gulf for Thursday in the wake of the trough.

Bering: A surface low south of the AKPEN Tuesday will bring northerly winds to much of the Bering into Wednesday. As this system tracks east, ridging will build in behind it, helping to further diminish wind speeds and cloud cover over the central and eastern Bering. A second system moving from west of Attu to the northern Bering on Thursday will bring increasing clouds, precipitation, and southerly winds to the western Bering.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7). On Wednesday, the long wave pattern continues to show an extensive trough across much of the state. Embedded within the long-wave trough are two well defined upper level lows. The first is a vertically stacked low south of the AKPEN that will slowly work its way southeast and out of the Gulf by Friday. The second upper level low will transit from the Russian coast to Norton Sound by the end of the week. Between the two, a ridge will extend from Southwest Alaska to the Arctic ocean. As the first low moves east, the southerly flow aloft will return to a more northeasterly flow, allowing weak shortwaves to periodically move across Southcentral. This will reestablish the pattern of scattered afternoon and evening shower activity. The second upper level low will help spin up a frontal system that will cross the northern Bering through Friday before weakening as it runs into the ridge. A flat ridge will also remain in place across the Aleutian Chain, limiting clouds and precipitation and keeping temperatures on the milder side. Temperatures across the southern Mainland will also trend warmer through the extended forecast, but remain cooler than what we have seen the past couple of days.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale Warning 155 165 170. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . ED SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CK MARINE/LONG TERM . CJ/TM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLIA2 - Bligh Reef Light, AK 11 mi57 min NW 6 G 7 47°F 1006.7 hPa (-0.8)
POTA2 - Potato Point, AK 11 mi57 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 47°F 1007.5 hPa (-0.7)
MRKA2 - Middle Rock Light, AK 13 mi57 min SSW 5.1 G 6 47°F 1007.1 hPa (-0.8)
46060 - West Orca Bay 36NM South Southwest of Valdez, AK 23 mi67 min WNW 3.9 G 3.9 49°F 51°F1 ft1006.6 hPa (-0.8)
VDZA2 - 9454240 - Valdez, AK 24 mi57 min ESE 1.9 G 1.9 45°F 54°F1007.1 hPa (-0.8)
46061 - Seal Rocks 55NM South of Valdez, AK 46 mi67 min N 7.8 G 9.7 48°F 48°F4 ft1006.7 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Valdez, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdez 2, AK29 mi61 minN 010.00 miOvercast46°F43°F89%1009.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAVD

Wind History from AVD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3SE3CalmCalmS3S3CalmW33SW7W8W10W7SW3W5CalmCalmCalmE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmW4SW3W7SW7SW7SW7W6W7W6SW5SW5CalmCalmE4E5E3E4CalmCalmNE4E4CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW3W5SW5S5SW6SW8SW9SW6SW7W6SW4E4SE6NE5E4NE3CalmCalmE3E3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Ellamar, Tatitlek Narrows, Valdez Arm, Alaska
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Ellamar
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:30 AM AKDT     3.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:49 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:27 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:41 AM AKDT     9.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:47 PM AKDT     0.97 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:16 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:38 PM AKDT     11.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:03 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.14.43.43.44.25.56.98.29.19.28.56.84.72.71.311.83.45.57.79.610.81110

Tide / Current Tables for Landlocked Bay, Port Fidalgo, Alaska
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Landlocked Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:53 AM AKDT     3.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:48 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:26 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:06 AM AKDT     9.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:12 PM AKDT     0.95 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:15 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:57 PM AKDT     10.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:02 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.74.93.63.23.74.86.27.58.69.18.87.55.53.51.811.32.64.56.78.810.310.910.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.