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PKZ740 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 358 Pm Akdt Fri Sep 22 2023
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
Sun and Sun night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue through Wed..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 230001 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 401 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2023

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS

A vertically stacked low is drifting eastward across the northern Bering Sea, with an occluded front dissipating along the Southwest Alaska coast. There is a narrow band of light rain just ahead of the front. Winds are strongest behind the front, with gusty westerly winds being observed along the southern Alaska Peninsula and eastern Bering Sea. Benign conditions prevail further west along the Aleutian chain and the southern Bering Sea. Meanwhile, a high amplitude short-wave ridge centered over interior Southwest Alaska is also leading to quiet conditions across most of Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. Weak short-wave troughs transiting the periphery of the ridge combined with weak low level flow are leading to areas of clouds and localized fog.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Model guidance is in fair agreement with the overall pattern.
There are differences with depiction of the many weak short-waves transiting the region. This creates quite the challenge for the sky cover and temperature forecasts.

AVIATION

PANC...Generally expect VFR conditions and light winds to prevail.
The one wild card is potential for a repeat of this morning, when fog and stratus with IFR conditions formed over parts of Anchorage. The atmosphere does not change much, so this is possible and will have to closely monitor overnight into early Saturday.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Rather seasonable weather will continue for southcentral Alaska through the first few days of astronomical Autumn, with a reprieve from the rather wet weather that's persist over much of the last month.

GOES satellite imagery shows a broad area of low pressure meandering across the eastern Gulf of Alaska, with scattered showers manifesting near the center of the low where cold air aloft is maintaining lapse rates great enough to allow for some convection. Meanwhile, ridging is established across western Alaska, allowing for much of southcentral to receive benign and rather pleasant weather conditions. Satellite imagery shows sky cover clearing with the onset of dry air and mixing. A mostly clear sky and little wind will allow for optimal radiational cooling. Temperatures will thus fall into the 30s tonight for most valley locations, with 20s once again likely in the Copper River Basin and other typically- cooler valley spots.

Much of the weekend into early next week will be similar to Friday as the area remains in rather weak flow in the upper-level pattern. The aforementioned low may drift a bit west on Saturday such that southern/coastal Prince William Sound may receive some shower activity and an uptick in clouds over Friday.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday)...

Weakening low pressure across the northern Bering Sea is dragging a weak front across the western coast of the state. Light rain stretching from Nelson Lagoon, north by northwest through the western Kuskokwim Delta is all but stalled out this afternoon.
Sprinkles to light showers may be brief near and west of Bethel, but should primarily hug the coastal areas. Areas along the AKPEN (King Cove through Pilot point) have the highest (50 to 70%)
chances tonight and into tomorrow for rain. Any of this precipitation has a very low chance (10 to 15%) of reaching areas deeper inland, such as King Salmon, Dillingham and even Egegik.

Behind this front are strong, high end small craft, to low end gale force winds as well as highly scattered showers (you could consider it popcorn in nature) across much of the Bering. These will persist through Saturday night before weakening into Sunday morning.

There are no expected wild fluctuations with temperatures through the weekend. Cloudcover with no significant advection (warm or cold) will drive temperatures in one direction or the other.
Inland, many areas may clear out overnight, and areas deep inland from Bristol Bay into the Lower Y-K Valley could flirt with freezing temperatures.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The extended period is largely characterized by the building ridge over Southern Alaska promoting largely benign conditions across our region for the most part. A few shortwaves in the upper-levels appear to support some weak transient waves into Southwest Alaska through Tuesday and Wednesday. These may produce very weak and sparse showers in Southwest, however will likely allow for some scattered cloud coverage. Further west and removed from the direct influence of the ridge, the Western Bering and Aleutians will likely see a unsettled pattern as a handful of shortwaves traverse across the Bering. Model consensus regarding these waves is poor, with the GFS advertising a more resilient ridge than the other deterministic model runs, which is initially attractive because a typical fault of models is a break- down of a ridge quicker than experience suggests. There is growing consensus among model solutions that a deeper trough will approach our area from the North Pacific by the end of the week, though there is little confidence on the timing and track of this feature. By Friday morning, the EC is suggesting a broad, strong low pressure system entering the Central Bering, while the GFS solution keeps the low smaller and weaker and swings it into the Southern Gulf of Alaska.

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North Foreland
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:56 AM AKDT     4.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:51 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:49 PM AKDT     15.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:18 PM AKDT     10.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:57 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:01 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:48 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North Foreland, Alaska, Tide feet

East Foreland
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Sat -- 05:48 AM AKDT     4.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:52 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:39 PM AKDT     15.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:10 PM AKDT     9.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:49 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:02 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:58 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:45 PM AKDT     17.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

East Foreland, Alaska, Tide feet

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