Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Beluga, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Sunday through Wednesday)...

An upper-level low continues northward across the Alaska Peninsula Sunday, with several shortwaves rotating around the circulation bringing widespread rain to much of Southwest Alaska. Gusty southerly winds will also persist across portions of Bristol Bay before gradually diminishing. By Sunday night into Monday, the upper low moves over the Southwest mainland, allowing rain showers to continue wrapping around the circulation. Cooler temperatures accompanying the system, resulting in a more typical cool and wet August pattern across Southwest Alaska.

Meanwhile, unsettled conditions continue across the Aleutian Islands as anther upper-level low moves southeastward across the southern Bering Monday. Rain and gusty winds spread eastward along the Aleutian chain and toward the AKPEN Monday into Tuesday as the system progresses eastward.

By Tuesday into Wednesday, the upper-level pattern remains active as the second low tracks toward the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska. Guidance differs somewhat on the exact position and strength of the low by Wednesday, but generally supports continued unsettled conditions across the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, with increasing chances for precipitation spreading toward Southwest Alaska.

LM

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

By Wednesday morning, broad troughing is anticipated across mainland Alaska with an upper level low sitting at the base of the trough over the AKPen. This low looks to move across the Gulf Wednesday and into the Alaska Panhandle on Thursday. There is general agreement at least a weak surface low will develop in the southwestern Gulf by Wednesday morning ahead of the upper low and move into the northern Gulf Coast around Prince William Sound Wednesday night into Thursday. This will bring more precipitation (possibly heavy) for the northern Gulf Coast and eastern Kodiak Island. Depending on the strength of the coastal ridge, offshore winds in the Gulf and southeasterly gap winds in Southcentral (Turnagain, Knik, Copper River) may also increase on Wednesday.
Some light precipitation may spill over into interior locations of Southcentral and Southwest, with highest chances around higher terrain. Otherwise, mostly overcast skies and cooler temperatures persist on Wednesday. By Thursday morning, after the low reaches shore, winds should weaken and precipitation should become lighter.

Behind the low, troughing persists as shortwaves continue to move through Southwest and the northern AKPen into Southcentral and the Gulf. Though details are still uncertain, this general pattern looks to maintain cooler temperatures and mostly cloudy skies with occasional rain through the end of the week. Depending on wave positioning, rainfall is possible across the Bering and Aleutians into the AKPen and Kodiak Island as well. One other detail that will be watched is how models continue to resolve a potential stronger low from Siberia moving into the Seward Peninsula next Friday-Saturday, which could bring another round of heavier rainfall for Southwest and stronger winds across the Bering. Details will become more clear in the coming days.

-PA


AVIATION

PANC...Light rain showers and MVFR ceilings remain possible this morning as a frontal system pushes through the region. Showers are expected to diminish by mid-morning as downslope flow develops off the Chugach. By early afternoon, Turnagain Arm winds will become active, bringing southeasterly gusts to 30 kts through the overnight hours. The challenge with the winds is that these strong southeasterly surface winds may be in-and-out during the afternoon and evening hours causing low level wind shear to come and go with changes in surface wind direction and strength.