Valdez, AK Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Valdez, AK


November 29, 2023 7:05 AM AKST (16:05 UTC)
Sunrise 9:37AM   Sunset 3:57PM   Moonrise  4:00PM   Moonset 1:46PM 

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

Marine Forecasts
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PKZ720 Port Of Valdez- 318 Am Akst Wed Nov 29 2023
Today..E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
Tonight..E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
Thu..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow showers.
Thu night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

PKZ700
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Valdez, AK
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Area Discussion for - Anchorage, AK
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FXAK68 PAFC 291403 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 503 AM AKST Wed Nov 29 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Friday night)...

A high amplitude negatively tilted trough extends from the eastern Bering Sea southeastward into the northeast Pacific. A corresponding high amplitude ridge is positioned downstream over western Canada and up along the AlCAN border. A deepening low out ahead of the trough is tracking northward into the Gulf of Alaska this morning, gradually being pulled a little toward the west as the trough continues to dig and become more negatively tilted. To the north of the low, upper level deformation and low level upslope and convergence are producing a narrow band of moderate precipitation from the western Susitna Valley/Western Alaska Range southward to Kodiak Island. Short-waves ejecting out of the trough in the Gulf combined with low level instability are producing showers along the north Gulf coast/Prince William Sound and the eastern Kenai Peninsula. Some of these showers trained over the same areas overnight, producing as much as 8" of snow in the interior Kenai based on SNOTEL data. Widespread gusty southeast winds which affected much of Southcentral yesterday are finally starting to diminish as flow begins to back toward the east to northeast in response to the low in the Gulf. Where the wind is still blowing, temperatures are quite balmy - in the upper 30s to around 40. Temperatures are beginning to fall through the 30s as the winds diminish.

The big forecast challenge for today is the track of the low across the Gulf today and then onshore of Southcentral tonight through Thursday. There is still a fairly large spread in model guidance, with hi-res guidance generally bringing the low track further north and west this afternoon through tonight compared to the global models. This greatly affects the marine forecast for the Gulf offshore and coastal waters. However, the low position also affects the northward progression of the leading frontal system and the amount of precipitation and wind pushing onshore of Southcentral today through tonight. For the sake of consistency and desire not to chase any particular solution, have made little change to the existing forecast which leans toward the more northern solution with stronger winds and heavier precipitation - especially across the eastern Kenai Peninsula. Where there is agreement is that easterly upslope flow will strengthen ahead of the low and front and upper level short-waves ejecting out of the trough will drive northwestward from the Gulf and across the Kenai Peninsula. When combined with and remaining low level instability, this suggest a high chance of a period of moderate to heavy precipitation this afternoon and evening. The heaviest precipitation will be along western Prince William Sound, but some of that will extend inland toward Turnagain Pass and east Turnagain Arm areas. If the more southerly and easterly low track wins out, low level flow will ultimately back toward the northeast causing precipitation over the interior Kenai to diminish in intensity sometime this evening. Precipitation will be primarily in the form of rain near sea level, with snow levels rising to around 1000 feet by this evening.

There may be some light spill-over precipitation, particularly for the western Kenai Peninsula, but most areas inland from the coastal mountains will stay dry. Eastern Prince William Sound (Cordova/Valdez areas) will initially stay drier due to the strong low level easterly flow, but steadier precipitation will move onshore with the front tonight. As we head to Thursday, forecast confidence takes a big drop, as guidance is really struggling with where and when the low will ultimately track onshore. Keep an eye out for forecast updates, as the forecast for Thursday and Thursday night will likely change once we have a better idea of where the low will track. The entire upper trough will lift north and east in a much weakened form, bringing a chance of precipitation to inland areas, but if anything does fall it will likely be brief and light in nature.

A new trough will enter the Gulf from the Aleutians Thursday, with potential for multiple lows to spin up along the leading edge of the trough. Model guidance is really struggling with run-to- run consistency Thursday through Friday. The latest trends indicate a large well-formed low over crossing the southern Gulf and perhaps producing some precipitation for Kodiak and the Gulf coast. The upper flow looks quite zonal and progressive with the arriving trough, so this favors confining the greatest impacts to the Gulf and Kodiak, with cooler and quieter conditions across Southcentral Friday on into the weekend.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday night)...

An upper-level trough will exit the Bering today and continue to flatten across Southwest Alaska on Thursday while high pressure lingers at the surface. Light winds and generally drier conditions are expected for Southwest today through the end of the week.
Areas of fog and low stratus are likely to form during the evening and overnight hours for various Southwest locations.

Further to the west, a strong front reaches the western Aleutians this morning and will continue lifting east across the Bering and rest of the Aleutians through the week. Steady precipitation and gale force winds will accompany the front. The low itself will track over the western Aleutians by early Thursday morning. West to southwesterly storm force winds along the southern periphery of the low are expected to reach the Pacific marine waters just south of the western Aleutians late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Models are indicating one or more additional lows developing along the front as it extends east towards the eastern Aleutians late Wednesday night. Depending on the location of these lows, isolated areas with storm force gusts could be possible, but honing in on their location is challenging at the moment due to a large model spread. Nonetheless, the Bering and Aleutians can expect to see generally active weather through at least the end of the week with this system as it lingers over the Bering.

-AF

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The long-term forecast period begins Saturday morning with fair model agreement depicting a broad upper-level trough stretched across the Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska, creating several surface low pressure centers in the southeastern Bering and northern Gulf. These lows will draw westerly gales across the Aleutian Chain and easterly gales across the northern Gulf coast into Prince William Sound. Generally a showery, wet pattern will be in place across all of Southern Alaska, with areas such as the lower Kuskokwim Valley, and Copper River Basin seeing the driest conditions. Looking into Sunday model uncertainty remains fair, with most solutions sinking the low in the Southern Bering across the Aleutian Chain, into the northern-most Pacific, south of Adak. By Monday morning, model disagreements become severe with some solutions keeping a low in the Southern Gulf of Alaska while keeping coastal Southcentral in a light rain and breezy pattern.
While other solutions take the low southeast, pushing into Juneau's region before advancing northward towards Southcentral.
By Monday afternoon, models seem to converge on a solution bringing a strong low pressure system towards the Southcentral coastline. Heavy rains and strong winds appear to move in, however timing the system's arrival is still debated. At latest, Tuesday afternoon will likely be rainy and windy in the Prince William Sound region. Overall, a wet pattern for the Aleutians and Southcentral regions, looking colder and drier from mid to late week for Southwest Alaska, and cooler and wetter for Southcentral.

CL

AVIATION

PANC...Winds are expected to shift northerly around 15Z. They will diminish this morning before picking back up this afternoon.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should continue through today.

KM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
VDXA2 3 mi30 min 0G1.9 32°F 32°F
VDZA2 - 9454240 - Valdez, AK 4 mi47 min 0G1 31°F 46°F29.78
MRKA2 - Middle Rock Light, AK 18 mi35 min NE 8.9G9.9 36°F 29.79
POTA2 - Potato Point, AK 20 mi35 min N 15G19 35°F 29.76
BLIA2 - Bligh Reef Light, AK 34 mi35 min N 17G19 42°F 29.73
46060 - West Orca Bay 36NM South Southwest of Valdez, AK 43 mi75 min E 19G21 43°F 46°F4 ft29.72
CRVA2 - 9454050- Cordova, AK 47 mi47 min ENE 5.1G8 42°F 46°F29.73

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Wind History for Valdez, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
PAVD VALDEZ PIONEER FIELD,AK 5 sm9 mincalm10 smOvercast28°F28°F100%29.84

Wind History from AVD
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Valdez, Alaska
   
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Valdez
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Wed -- 02:38 AM AKST     11.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:52 AM AKST     3.82 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:26 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:46 PM AKST     13.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:48 PM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:41 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 03:58 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:39 PM AKST     -1.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Valdez, Alaska, Tide feet
12
am
7.3
1
am
9.5
2
am
10.8
3
am
11
4
am
10
5
am
8.2
6
am
6
7
am
4.4
8
am
3.8
9
am
4.7
10
am
6.8
11
am
9.4
12
pm
11.7
1
pm
13.2
2
pm
13.5
3
pm
12.6
4
pm
10.5
5
pm
7.5
6
pm
4
7
pm
0.9
8
pm
-1
9
pm
-1.3
10
pm
0.1
11
pm
2.5



Tide / Current for Landlocked Bay, Port Fidalgo, Alaska
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Landlocked Bay
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Wed -- 02:31 AM AKST     11.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:47 AM AKST     4.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:24 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:39 PM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:40 PM AKST     13.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:44 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:07 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:32 PM AKST     -1.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Landlocked Bay, Port Fidalgo, Alaska, Tide feet
12
am
7.4
1
am
9.6
2
am
10.9
3
am
10.9
4
am
9.9
5
am
8.1
6
am
6.1
7
am
4.5
8
am
4
9
am
5.1
10
am
7.2
11
am
9.7
12
pm
11.9
1
pm
13.2
2
pm
13.4
3
pm
12.4
4
pm
10.1
5
pm
7
6
pm
3.6
7
pm
0.6
8
pm
-1.3
9
pm
-1.3
10
pm
0.2
11
pm
2.7




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Middleton,Island/Anchorage,AK



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