Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Valdez, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday)...

Fog/low stratus persists over the Bering due to continued ridging.
The growth and decay of fog and low stratus over the Aleutians will follow the familiar pattern of decaying during the day and building during the evening. Over the Southwest Mainland, showers and isolated thunderstorms are forming over inland areas with the Lower Kuskokwim Valley seeing the most activity. These showers and thunderstorms are drifting southward toward the Iliamna area and will taper off by the end of the day. Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms (20 to 30% chance) will continue in the Lower Kuskokwim Valley during daytime hours into the weekend. An upper low will move over the area from the north by Thursday, allowing for cooler temperatures and non-convective rainfall over the Kuskokwim Delta.

Back in the Bering, a low southwest of Attu Island is pushing a front into the Attu/Shemya region, bringing gusty, easterly winds and light rainfall. The front will stall against the ridge and will slowly weaken through Friday. The ridge will eventually be squeezed by the low out west and the low dropping into the Southwest Mainland. This means that fog/low stratus coverage will shrink to middle of the Bering between the Adak/Atka and Pribilof Islands area by Friday into the weekend. Moisture from a low will push into Southwest Alaska by Saturday, allowing for increased rain chances over the Southwest Mainland including the Alaska Peninsula. This will be non-convective, but isolated thunderstorms over the Kuskokwim regions will be possible (10 to 20% chance)
before the moisture and cooler air makes its way north.

-JAR/ER

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Sunday will see unsettled weather for Southwest and Southcentral Alaska due to a low moving into the western Gulf south of Kodiak Island. This low will push moisture into the Southwest Mainland and coastal Southcentral Alaska including Kodiak Island.
Widespread rainfall over the aforementioned regions will result.
Easterly waves moving into Southcentral will allow for shower activity over the Copper River Basin and the Mat-Su through Wednesday. The Bering will be in-between lows and will be relatively calm through Monday. The Gulf low will begin to progress eastward on Monday, which will decrease rain chances for the Alaska Peninsula and coastal Southcentral while the Aleutian ridge erodes during that time frame. The Bering low will slowly move eastward through Wednesday due to a blocking high over the Bering Strait.

A front from the Bering low will track across the Aleutians, bringing a period of rain and gusty winds before the front stalls and weakens between the Pribilof Islands and Unalaska by Wednesday. For Southcentral, the Gulf Low continues moving east through Wednesday, but rainfall will linger over coastal Southcentral and Kodiak Island. An upper level ridge will begin to build over the interior Monday night. There is higher confidence for continued scattered showers and thunderstorms for the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska from the anticyclonic flow and easterly waves.

-SS/JAR


AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least tonight. Guidance is hinting at some low stratus and fog developing along Cook Inlet and possibly nudging into the terminal after 08-10Z as high pressure moves in for Thursday. Any fog or stratus that does develop should erode by mid to late morning Thursday as daytime mixing increases.