Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Valdez, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:45AMSunset 11:25PM Monday July 13, 2020 4:12 AM AKDT (12:12 UTC) Moonrise 12:21AMMoonset 2:26PM Illumination 44% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ126 Port Valdez- 351 Am Akdt Mon Jul 13 2020
Today..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Valdez, AK
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location: 61.08, -146.32     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 130123 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 523 PM AKDT Sun Jul 12 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A cut-off upper level low is over Southwest Alaska this afternoon and is slowly moving toward the southeast. This low is cut-off from the main upper low which is just off the Arctic Coast near Point Barrow. The Southwest Alaska low is keeping the atmosphere unstable and producing thunderstorms in its vicinity once again today.

An upper level disturbance is tracking through Cook Inlet through the Susitna Valley today bringing a line of sometimes-heavy showers along it. Conditions in the northern Copper River Basin are also unstable enough to support thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, though the rest of Southcentral should only be unstable enough for showers.

There remains high pressure over the Bering Sea and its associated low level stratus.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Overall, models are in good synoptic agreement through the middle of the week. Even so, the NAM was shied away from in the Gulf of Alaska over the next day as it is a noticeable outlier to the other models with the low being weaker and farther east Monday night and Tuesday. Models also differ in speeds with tracking a low near the western and central Aleutians Tuesday through Thursday. The good news is that the spectrum of models is converging on a solution as they are in much better agreement with this low than they were a few days ago.

AVIATION. PANC . Southeast winds will persist into the evening and then taper off toward midnight. VFR conditions are expected throughout the period, though there could be some ceilings below 5000 ft at times overnight.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

An upper level low over Southwest Alaska will continue to bring southwesterly flow aloft and allow for ample marine influence in the Anchorage Bowl and Mat-Su Valley. Radar imagery shows the majority of showers moving northeastward in the Susitna Valley. Isolated thunderstorms developed in the northwestern Copper Basin as satellite derived lightning detection detected a couple of strikes in this area.

The biggest forecast challenge was the wind forecast with the next approaching low pressure system. Gale force winds are expected in the northern Gulf of Alaska from Monday morning through Tuesday morning as a developing area of low pressure moves into the area. Due to the strong winds aloft that will be locally enhanced due to funneling along the coast, it is likely that ample mixing will occur and help mix stronger winds down to the surface from aloft. In this case, the GFS/GEM blend was the favored solution as the NAM was a significant outlier with having the position of the low far to the northeast and ECMWF being too slow on the winds. 12z guidance showed stronger winds than 00z guidance and helped support the reason for increasing the winds and expanding the area of Gale force winds from the last forecast package.

The best chance for thunderstorms in Southcentral is this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon in the northern Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin. Stability indices show an unstable atmosphere as negative LI values support lift. Due to less cloud cover and more diurnal heating expected on Tuesday afternoon in this area will further aid to the onset of convection.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

An upper level low is currently centered over Southwest AK this afternoon. This should bring isolated thunderstorms over areas of high terrain this afternoon and evening, with widespread chances for rain throughout Southwest. By Monday morning the upper level low will exit the region to the southeast, marking the end to more widespread convection. On Monday afternoon there is a chance for some isolated storms over high terrain due to diurnal heating; however, instability parameters are not as impressive over these areas as on Sunday. By Tuesday, a upper level ridge will push in from the west, bringing calm weather to the area.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

High pressure, light winds, and low stratus will persist over the Central Bering Sea through the forecast period. Over the Aleutian Chain, a series of low pressure systems will interact with the aforementioned high to the north. The first system is currently over the Central Aleutians, bringing light rain to the area. This system should shear out by Tuesday morning as the low over the central Bering moves eastward. Forecast uncertainty increases Tuesday afternoon as the next low moves over the Western Bering. Models are hinting at small craft advisory winds over the area, but the exact location of the low center is uncertain.

MARINE (Days 3-5: Wednesday through Friday).

Models are in better agreement today with a low lifting over the central Aleutians by Wednesday afternoon, but some uncertainty in the strength. This system will drift southward on Friday, with some models trying too bring high pressure back into the Bering as this system weakens. The next North Pacific low approaches the region late Friday into Saturday, which models are having a difficult time resolving the strength and placement of this system.

Over the Gulf, winds will shift on Wednesday once a low pressure system shifts into the eastern Gulf. Models diverge a bit on Thursday in whether upper level ridging tries to build in, which could bring strong winds through Shelikof Strait and around Kodiak Island through Friday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4-7: Thursday through Sunday).

An upper level ridge over the eastern Bering and Southwest Alaska continues to move into Southcentral spreading farther eastward through the middle of the week. This is a favorable pattern that will allow for low stratus to move into Southwest under the high pressure, keeping the area relatively dry through mid-week, aside from afternoon showers over higher terrain. Chances for precipitation across the region towards the end of the week as an upper level wave begins move southward from northern interior Alaska.

The weekend becomes a bit more uncertain as a front associated with a North Pacific low begins to move over the Alaska Peninsula and spread farther northward across Southwest and Southcentral Alaska through Sunday. Models are struggling on the placement and timing of the associated low center as it moves across the eastern Bering and into the mainland.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Flood Advisory 141 (Kennicott River) MARINE . Gale Warning 119 120 131 351. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . EZ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . ED SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CJ MARINE/LONG TERM . AH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VDZA2 - 9454240 - Valdez, AK 4 mi55 min Calm G 1 49°F 1017.1 hPa
MRKA2 - Middle Rock Light, AK 18 mi43 min NE 4.1 G 4.1 50°F 1016.9 hPa
POTA2 - Potato Point, AK 20 mi43 min NNE 4.1 G 7 51°F 1017.3 hPa
BLIA2 - Bligh Reef Light, AK 34 mi43 min NE 6 G 7 1016 hPa
46060 - West Orca Bay 36NM South Southwest of Valdez, AK 43 mi83 min E 12 G 14 55°F 59°F1 ft1015.7 hPa (+0.0)
CRVA2 - 9454050- Cordova, AK 47 mi55 min NE 1 G 2.9 52°F 53°F1016.4 hPa

Wind History for Valdez, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdez 2, AK5 mi17 minE 510.00 miLight Rain47°F46°F97%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAVD

Wind History from AVD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW85SW5CalmCalmSW6SW63SW5SW6SW4SW63W4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmE3E5
1 day agoE5CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmSW5SW4SW6S6CalmS5E7CalmCalmE3E4E3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalm
2 days agoE4NE4E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmW12W6E5S3E7E5E3E3E4CalmE4

Tide / Current Tables for Valdez, Alaska
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Valdez
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:20 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:58 AM AKDT     3.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:35 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:11 AM AKDT     7.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:44 PM AKDT     3.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:26 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:45 PM AKDT     10.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:05 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.13.93.53.94.85.86.87.57.97.76.95.64.23.33.13.74.96.37.89.19.910.19.58.2

Tide / Current Tables for Landlocked Bay, Port Fidalgo, Alaska
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Landlocked Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:21 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:49 AM AKDT     3.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:39 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:56 AM AKDT     7.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:41 PM AKDT     2.83 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:26 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:32 PM AKDT     9.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:03 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.73.73.43.94.75.76.57.27.47.16.253.932.93.64.86.27.68.89.69.68.87.5

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.