Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hope, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Scattered showers continue to move across the Southwest mainland this afternoon. These are being fueled by a low that is present south of the Alaska Peninsula. Gusty gale force winds are being felt in the Eastern Aleutians, particularly in gap regions. Gusty Kamishak gap winds are also being funneled into the mainland, being felt from Iliamna to Dillingham. Meanwhile, another low has moved into the western Aleutians, increasing precipitation chances from Shemya to Adak and also causing small craft winds.

On Thursday, the low will move into the Gulf of Alaska, allowing for the southwest mainland to have slight ridging and thus, drier and calmer conditions. However, chances for showers will linger, especially in the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley regions along higher terrain. Gap winds will also diminish in the Eastern Aleutians with the exit of the low. Also in the Bering, the other low will advance eastward, but will fizzle out as it reaches the Fox Islands. The low's front will bring a period of rainfall to the Fox Islands and briefly into Cold Bay before dissipating by Friday morning.

Friday will initially be uneventful as a broad ridge builds in the Bering, and as the southwest mainland continues to dry out.
However, a large low pushes into the western Aleutians by Friday afternoon, sending a large, strong front eastward. Heavy rainfall and small craft winds are associated with the front. Also, the mainland will have a potential for thunderstorms in the Lower Kuskokwim Delta. Come Saturday, the front will push into the Eastern Aleutians and Pribilofs, bringing small craft winds and heavy precipitation. The Pribilofs could see a brief period of snowfall before transitioning to rain in the afternoon.
Temperatures in the mainland become quite warm, reaching the 60s further from the coast. A better chance for thunderstorms is expected for Saturday afternoon, stretching from the Lower Kuskokwim Delta to inland parts of Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta. The front will move inland by Saturday night, bringing heavy rainfall and breezy winds to coastal regions of the mainland.

-JAR

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

A broad upper level low stretches from Siberia across the Bering before angling into the Gulf of Alaska. Several shortwaves help the low centers slip through the pattern as the low becomes more organized over the Eastern Bering and Western Mainland by the end of the forecast period. The most persistent low anchors over the Gulf of Alaska through midweek. Models favor the GFS through the new week maintaining strengths and tracks of features.

Lingering showers are expected over the Southern half of Mainland Alaska through Wednesday. A rain-wrapped low and front pushing across the Central Aleutians and Bering brings moderate rain and locally gusty winds into the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska through Monday. The low sweeps into the Gulf of Alaska, spreading the rain into Southcentral Alaska and North to the Alaska Range until Wednesday. Snow is expected over higher elevations, diminishing Tuesday. In the West, a well developed North Pacific low and front does a drive-by over the Western and Central Aleutians for Tuesday and Wednesday before curving back into the North Pacific.

- Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period.
Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds are ongoing and expected to persist through the evening hours before diminishing shortly before midnight.