Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hope, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Thunderstorm activity has diminished overnight with a lesser chance for reinvigoration this afternoon. A slightly more stable environment develops over Southwest Alaska as an easterly wave moves in, bringing increased cloud cover and light rain showers.
The wave moves through relatively quickly, moving off to the northwest by Thursday morning. Clearing skies and afternoon warming will allow for another round of thunderstorms for Southwest Alaska. Primary area for thunderstorm activity will again be in the lower Kuskokwim Valley, spilling into interior Bristol Bay and eastern portions of the Kuskokwim Delta. There is a lesser chance for thunderstorms reaching as far south as New Stuyahok or as far west as Bethel.

Out west, a front and associated low push over the Central Aleutians today. Widespread small craft winds and rain as well as a core of gale force winds move over the Central Aleutians into the southern Bering Sea through this evening. The front will continue tracking in a north-northeasterly manner, stretching across much of the Bering and over the Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula by Thursday afternoon. Expect wet and windy conditions across the Aleutian Islands, including the Pribilof Islands, and Bering Sea over the next couple of days.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

The weather pattern across the Alaskan region continues under a broad upper level trough centered mostly over the Bering.
Shortwaves and transient lows slip off across the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf of Alaska. These transient lows undercut a ridge that extends across Northern Alaska, with the Southern portions sliding into Canada. Individual models and model ensembles support the large scale pattern through the weekend, but begin to vary somewhat during the second half of the forecast period.

Scattered rain showers and possible thunderstorms will dot much of the Southern Mainland through the period. Continued warmer temperatures increase the likelihood of convection through Tuesday, especially around the Alaska Range and Eastern Interior.
A weakening Central Aleutian surface low extends a front over the Northern Bering into Western Alaska. Areas of rain associated with the front continue over across Southwest Alaska and the AKPEN into Kodiak Island through Sunday. Further West, a well developed Eastern Asian low and front pushes across the Western and Central Aleutians and Bering through Tuesday.

- Kutz


AVIATION

PANC.. MVFR to low VFR ceilings will erode this morning, lifting and scattering out by later this afternoon and evening. Winds will be light and variable this morning becoming more southwesterly by tonight.