Wednesday, April21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hope, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 9:40PM Wednesday April 21, 2021 3:53 AM AKDT (11:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:04PMMoonset 5:10AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 345 Am Akdt Wed Apr 21 2021
.small craft advisory tonight and Thursday...
Today..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Tonight..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Thu..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Thu night..N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat through Sun..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hope, AK
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location: 61.15, -149.76     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 210137 CCA AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion . CORRECTED National Weather Service Anchorage AK 537 PM AKDT Tue Apr 20 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A vertically stacked low south of the Eastern Aleutians continues to weaken as it sinks slowly southward into the North Pacific. Areas of rain persist along the Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians, especially on the Pacific side. A large area of high end small craft winds extend from the Alaska Peninsula and across the eastern to central Bering Sea. Other than the winds, high pressure over the western Bering is leading to quiet conditions across much of the Bering and Aleutian chain.

A broad upper level trough extends north and east from the aforementioned low center across Southwest Alaska and into the Gulf of Alaska, with embedded weak waves rotating westward into the eastern Bering. The trough is blocked from making any northward progression due to an Arctic trough digging southeastward across the eastern Alaska interior. The south end of this short-wave is crossing the Alaska Range and the northern Copper River Basin. There is little precipitation with any of the troughs. The primary impact is an increase in cloud cover across southern Alaska and marginally cooler temperatures than recent days.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models remain in excellent agreement with large scale features through Thursday. Solutions diverge with a Pacific low tracking south of the Aleutians on Thursday, with uncertainty in the depth of the low as well as how close it gets to the chain. For now, don't have a preferred solution. Will just get the general idea of a low into the forecast and update as we get closer in time.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Quiet and dry weather is expected for the forecast period with loads of sunny weather as the upper level high rebuilds over the region. Temperatures will be mainly in the 50s and 60s across Southcentral for the next few days with each day slightly warmer than the last. With the upper level high overhead, a decent radiational cooling setup is expected each night with temperatures falling mainly into the mid to upper 20s area-wide with lows in the low 30s to near freezing for Anchorage. Areas of patchy fog are also possible through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours around Valdez to Thompson Pass before winds begin to pick up overnight to mix out any of the fog. There are also some areas of fog around the Kodiak area this afternoon which is expected to remain through Wednesday morning. The Turnagain Arm wind is also expected to pick back up Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, though, expect these winds to bend down Cook Inlet and not move over any land areas.

The only other item to note will be a gale force frontal system associated with a low pressure moving towards the Aleutian Islands. This will send copious amounts of rain to the Kodiak area beginning Wednesday morning. Rain is expected to fall fairly continuously from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening with anywhere from 2 to 3 inches expected, with locally 3+ inches possible. This front is expected to push up to about the southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula Thursday before the upper level high pushes this front back down to the south on Friday.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Thursday) .

With the exception of some low cloud cover, subsidence under a ridge of high pressure aloft is keeping much of Kuskokwim Delta and the middle Kuskokwim Valley relatively quite today with mostly clear skies and Spring-like temperatures. Meanwhile, a North Pacific low will track westward along the Aleutian Chain late tonight into Wednesday. A deep fetch of tropical moisture associated with this low will move northward, bringing a chance of rain showers over parts Y-K Delta and Bristol Bay Coast through late Thursday night. Areas south and east of Toksook Bay should remain rain free during this time period. The main impact will be gusty, easterly winds on the backside of the low through the gaps and passes of the Alaska Range and across parts of Bristol Bay through late Wednesday night before diminishing. Otherwise, the aforementioned ridge will be anchored over the forecast area and bring fair, mild conditions with increasing clouds at times through the end of the week.

showers

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Thursday) .

Wrap around moisture associated with a weak low south of Dutch Harbor will continue to bring isolated rain showers along the Aleutian Chain before tapering off this evening. After a brief lull, another frontal boundary associated with a North Pacific low is expected to arrive late tonight into Wednesday. This storm system will have a deep fetch of tropical moisture and will bring widespread rain along the Eastern and Central Aleutians, spreading northward over the Pribilofs. As the low deepens and tracks westward early Wednesday morning, a low-level easterly barrier jet will form along the coastline of the Eastern Aleutians with the strongest winds and gusts expected over the offshore islands especially near Sand Point. Elsewhere, expect gusty, easterly winds across much of the forecast area through the usual gaps and passes and the Bering Sea as well. Precipitation will taper off along with diminishing winds by late Thursday night as the low weakens.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Friday through Sunday). A North Pacific low will track in the vicinity of the Aleutians Friday through Friday night. There is forecast uncertainty in the exact track and depth of this storm. At this point in time it looks like it will remain just south of the Aleutian Islands and produce small craft winds. However, there is potential for gale force winds if the low ends up being a bit stronger. In any case, it will begin to weaken by Saturday as it heads into the southern Bering Sea.

Elsewhere, expect winds less than 35 kts and seas less than 20 ft.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Saturday through Tuesday). A blocking ridge will hold firmly over mainland Alaska through the weekend, continuing the recent stretch of mostly sunny and warm weather. The storm track will be focused from the North Pacific up into the Bering Sea. At this point, it doesn't look like any of these storms will be particularly strong, but do expect occasional stronger winds and rain along the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula and across the Bering Sea.

Medium range models indicate the blocking ridge may weaken or shift away from mainland Alaska early next week, but diverge on how and when this might occur. All solutions show a strong Arctic trough dropping down the east side of the ridge. Some of these drive the trough southwestward across Alaska while others keep most of the energy over western Canada. This would certainly affect the temperature forecast, though conditions would likely remain dry under either scenario. Meanwhile, models are in agreement on increased ridging over the Bering Sea as the long- wave trough shifts back southward into the North Pacific. Thus, would generally expect quieter weather. Stay tuned as we try to figure out when the blocking pattern will break and what the new pattern will look like.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Flood Advisory Anchor River (121). MARINE . Gale Warnings 150-170 172 180 414 130 131 132 138 352. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . SEB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . MV SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . MF MARINE/LONG TERM . RC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 9 mi83 min NE 1.9 G 1.9 37°F 33°F1030.9 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 73 mi59 min 41°F1029.1 hPa
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 82 mi63 min NNW 3.9 G 3.9 42°F 44°F1029.9 hPa (-0.9)40°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK6 mi60 minNE 310.00 miFair35°F28°F76%1030.2 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK8 mi57 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds36°F31°F80%1029.8 hPa
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK11 mi60 minESE 310.00 miFair32°F31°F96%1030.5 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK13 mi60 minN 010.00 miFair33°F28°F82%1030.3 hPa
Birchwood, Birchwood Airport, AK23 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair34°F30°F85%1031.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAMR

Wind History from AMR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3E5E3W4N3N3W6W8SW6S12SW8NW7W9W6W6N5NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmN5N4NW3N4N6N6N5W5W4NW3S6SE3N3NW4CalmCalmCalm3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmNE3NE5NE6NE4N5N5N4N5N4NE4N3NW3CalmN3CalmN5NE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Alaska (2) (expired 1999-08-03)
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:30 AM AKDT     24.22 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:11 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:18 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:38 AM AKDT     10.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:03 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:56 PM AKDT     22.57 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:57 PM AKDT     3.83 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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15.519.322.3242422.118.815.112.210.610.512.215.819.121.722.621.61915.411.88.353.85.4

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:30 AM AKDT     24.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:11 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:18 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:38 AM AKDT     10.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:03 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:56 PM AKDT     22.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:57 PM AKDT     4.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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15.719.622.624.324.322.419.115.412.410.910.812.416.119.421.922.821.919.315.612.18.65.34.15.6

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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