Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Anchorage, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Tuesday afternoon)...

Unsettled weather continues for Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands, albeit less active than what we've seen in recent days. The primary weather hazards to watch for will be hot temperatures and afternoon/evening thunderstorms for Southwest Alaska. For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, a North Pacific low moving towards the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula tonight will bring winds to gale force, as well as periods of moderate to heavy rain. Otherwise, scattered rain showers and winds up to about 20-30 kt for the remainder of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands.

The primary forecast challenge continues to be thunderstorm potential for interior Southwest Alaska. Max temperatures in the mid to high 70s over Kuskokwim Valley will provide good surface- based instability for robust convection. The difficulty is ascertaining where the lift will be; easterly shortwaves propagate off an upper low in the Gulf, but models continue to struggle with the location of these waves. This is especially the case for Tuesday afternoon, when 12z models differed over whether the best forcing would be over Kuskokwim Valley or further south in interior Bristol Bay. Generally, if you'll be outdoors in interior Southwest Alaska the next few days, be prepared for isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

-KC

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

Forecast models continue to agree with the overall development and changes to the broad scale features across the region. A closed upper level low over the Southern Gulf of Alaska drifts Southeastward through Thursday. Greatest uncertainty rests with the transient systems rotating around the closed upper level low across the Aleutians and Bering. The body of the upper low is expected to sag closer to the Aleutians through the forecast period. A number of shortwaves along the Eastern flank help erode an upper ridge that forms through the Central Mainland, linking with a closed center over the Arctic coast. the ridge continues to edge towards the Canadian border through the weekend.

Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms will be the order of the day over Interior Alaska, mostly South of the Alaska Range through Friday. A somewhat strong North Pacific surface low Wednesday spreads its locally moderate rain and gale force winds with high end gale force gusts across the Central Aleutians for Thursday. As the low tracks over the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay, then back into the Central Bering, its front brings locally moderate rain and gusty winds over the Northern Bering into Western Alaska, AKPEN, Kodiak Island and across the Southcentral coasts through the weekend.

- Kutz


AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions persist through the TAF period. Breezy south-to-southeasterly winds will veer to more southwesterly and decrease by this evening, but periods of southeasterly winds may still be able to work back in. Winds will remain dominantly out of the south to southeast Sunday.