Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Anchorage, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday afternoon)...

Generally, foggy/cloudy over much of the Bering Sea, Aleutian Islands, Alaska Peninsula, and coastal Southwest Alaska through about Friday morning. In interior Southwest Alaska, generally warm and dry, though parts of this region will see scattered rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms tomorrow and Friday afternoons. From Friday into Saturday, increasingly stormy for Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska as a somewhat unseasonable gale-force front and its low move in from the North Pacific.
Overall weather looks unsettled but not particularly hazardous.

Diving into the details... the forecast remains on track, with the big picture remaining largely unchanged. The main story in the near-term continues to be a ridge of high pressure that will linger in the Bering Sea through the first half of Friday, after which a strong North Pacific low will displace it north and westwards. Subsidence under the ridge is bringing widespread overcast skies to all but interior Southwest Alaska, with periods of low stratus and dense fog. Few changes were made to the fog forecast, though fog coverage was increased inland as onshore flow will bring in more moisture tonight. Fog chances look to diminish as early as Friday afternoon, as the incoming North Pacific low disrupts subsidence under the ridge.

The thunderstorm forecast looks mainly on track too. As with the previous discussions, while there is a slight chance of thunderstorms, a continued signal for weak upper level forcing suggests that any thunderstorms that form likely won't be very strong. This is particularly true for any thunderstorms that develop tomorrow afternoon; given weak flow aloft, storms will likely develop and then rain themselves out, as there isn't robust enough steering flow to allow these storms to further organize.
The bigger question will be convective potential Saturday afternoon. The current track of Friday/Saturday's North Pacific low suggests that the low will not move north of the Alaska Peninsula. As such, precipitation and cloud cover will likely remain out of Kuskokwim Delta and Valley, which means temperatures could stay warm enough to lead to a third day of convection and thunderstorm potential. While confidence is lower in that particular aspect of the forecast, confidence is quite high that the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula (including marine areas)
will see sustained gale-force winds and steady light to moderate rain as we head into the weekend.

-KC

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Showers are expected for Southwest Alaska and the eastern Aleutians through Tuesday from a Gulf low. An upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf will remain nearly stationary before moving eastward by Monday. These two systems are important to note as it blocks an originating Pacific Low from going into the eastern Gulf. The combination of the anticyclonic flow aloft from the ridge and cyclonic flow from the low pressure system will enhance southerly flow ushering in warm and moist air into the northern and western Gulf coast. This is expected to bring precipitation to Southcentral Alaska, the Alaska Peninsula, and Kodiak Island.
There is high confidence that there will be periods of heavy rain for Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound Saturday into Sunday. Lingering showers are possible Monday through Tuesday as the southerly enhanced flow shuts off. A weak upper level low over Kamchatka will move over the Aleutians Tuesday through Wednesday, generating showers.

-SS


AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Scattered showers will remain mostly tied to the Chugach mountains with low chances of a shower making it over the terminal. Showers will dissipate this evening with decreasing diurnal heating. The Turnagain Arm wind will increase this evening...bending into the terminal at times with gusts up to 25 kt.