Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Anchorage, AK

FXAK68 PAFC 100027 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 427 PM AKDT Fri Oct 9 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows mostly clear skies over much of Interior Southcentral as the axis of a ridge sits over Gulf to the Wrangell Mountains. Cloud coverage has increased for Kodiak Island and the southern portions of Cook Inlet and the Kenai Peninsula ahead of a strong frontal system currently draped over Southwest Alaska/Bristol Bay. Cloud coverage increases from southwest to northeast throughout the evening as the front continues to move further into Southcentral. Rain has reached southern Kodiak Island, and will continue to work northeastward to the rest of Kodiak Island this evening, then to the Cook Inlet, Kenai Peninsula, western Susitna Valley, and the northern Gulf Coast overnight tonight.

The arrival of the front marks the beginning of a wet weekend for much of Southcentral. Temperatures across most of the road system should remain warm enough for precipitation this weekend to be rain. However, especially tonight, there is a high likelihood (80-90 percent) for the higher passes (Broad Pass, Thompson Pass, Eureka) to see some snow. Most snowfall will be tonight with slightly cooler temperatures, with light accumulations (2-4 inches) expected at the passes. Confidence is also high (80-90 percent) for higher elevations of Hatcher Pass (above 3,000 feet)
to see 6-12 inches of snow with this system. Temperatures may also be cool enough tonight for some snow to mix in with rain in Valdez tonight. Temperatures will continue to warm throughout the weekend as this system moves through. Most areas on the road system receiving snow Friday night likely see a transition to rain by Saturday afternoon as snow levels rise.

This front will stream moisture into the region through the weekend due to southerly winds in the lower atmosphere and southwesterly winds well aloft. This drives ample moisture advection and will maintain steady precipitation for much of the region through Sunday afternoon. Regarding precipitation amounts, the heaviest and most persistent precipitation is expected to be along the northern Gulf Coast (widespread 2-3 inches through Sunday afternoon with some locally higher amounts possible) and the western Alaska Range to the northern Susitna Valley (1-3 inches through Sunday afternoon with some locally higher amounts possible). Downsloping winds will result in lower total precipitation amounts for the western Kenai, Anchorage, lower Mat-Su Valley, and the Copper River Basin.

As the front approaches, a pressure gradient tightens between the exiting Gulf ridge and the front. This will allow southeasterly gap winds to ramp up this evening and continue through tomorrow evening (Saturday), with high confidence of gusts up to 55 mph through Turnagain Arm and the Anchorage Hillside and up to 40 mph for Knik River and Copper River Valleys. Southerly small-craft force winds persist through the Gulf on Saturday, with some gales possible in the southern portion of Cook Inlet. By late Saturday, models show a shortwave driving northward along the front which will spin up a new surface low NE of Kodiak as the upper-level wave becomes more negatively tilted. Again, there is good model agreement that this new feature and its front then drive toward the northern Gulf for late Saturday with the development of a coastal ridge out ahead of the front. There is high confidence (80-90 percent) that this solution will further enhance SE gap winds through typical locations; however, with the low south of the Kenai Peninsula, a down inlet flow will set up with high confidence (80-90 percent) that the Turnagain Arm jet bend south and away from Anchorage by Saturday afternoon. The strong southeasterly flow aloft will also increase downsloping with precipitation chances in the lee of the coastal mountains diminishing from 60-80 percent Friday night and into Saturday to 40-50 percent by Saturday evening (hence lower expected precip amounts). Downsloping winds off the Chugach will keep most of the central and northern Copper River Basin dry on Saturday as well.

As the low and its associated upper-level trough continues to lift north Saturday night into Sunday, the barrier jet off the northern Gulf Coast accelerates to gale-force. Some easterly gale-force winds likely make it into Price William Sound Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Winds quickly decrease for across Southcentral once the front moves through, with the Turnagain Arm wind decreasing Saturday night and the barrier jet decreasing Sunday morning. With decreasing winds, the effects of downsloping also decrease for the western Chugach and Kenai Peninsula. This will allow precipitation to fill in across the Cook Inlet and Anchorage Bowl as cross-barrier flow diminishes and gusty southwesterly flow (especially aloft) redevelops. Rain may also make it over the Chugach and into the Copper river Basin Sunday morning as the low moves into the coast and quickly dissipates.

Troughing continues over Southcentral through Monday. Clouds and rain showers will likely (60 to 70 percent) linger through Monday across coastal Southcentral, the Cook Inlet through Mat-Su Valleys, and along the Alaska Range, with heaviest rain along the northern Gulf Coast. Some light overnight snow (up to 1 inch) may fall at the highest passes Sunday night.

-TM/PA
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