Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Anchorage, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 9:55AMSunset 3:47PM Sunday December 8, 2019 12:05 AM AKST (09:05 UTC) Moonrise 3:04PMMoonset 4:59AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 405 Pm Akst Sat Dec 7 2019
.small craft advisory tonight and Sunday night...
Tonight..E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
Sun..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun night..E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
Mon..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue through Wed..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Anchorage , AK
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location: 61.18, -149.27     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 080150 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 450 PM AKST Sat Dec 7 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A high amplitude pattern has set up with a ridge axis over eastern Alaska and longwave trough axis bisecting the central Aleutians. There is a potent jet core south of the Aleutians with an intensity of 170+ knots. A fetch of warm air is pushing up the Cook Inlet. This morning the observed temperature at Seldovia was 52 degrees Fahrenheit. On the latest satellite imagery there is a low near Kodiak and another low near Nunivak Island. The precipitation shield spans from the central Bering across Southwest Alaska into portions of Southcentral and back into the north Pacific. Meanwhile farther west, a low continues to spin near Attu Island.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models continue to move towards a consensus with the primary surface lows that will impact AK over the next couple of days. They have all converged on a solution that carries tonight's system up through the Kenai Peninsula and Northern Cook Inlet. Then, shifting to the storm on Sun night, there is some marginal discrepancy between the NAM and some of the other models on the exact strength and track of the low as it hugs the Western AK coast. In general though, most of the impacts associated with this would be much the same. However, we will continue to refine the track to assess the need for any High Wind Warnings or Winter Weather products. The higher resolution guidance was used this afternoon to hone in on a deformation band of snow setting up across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley this evening.

AVIATION. PANC . Wind shear remains the main concern today as winds at the terminal will remain out of the north with stronger southeasterly flow aloft and over the Turnagain Arm. As a frontal boundary approaches tonight, it will bring southeast winds into the airport. The timing of these winds could vary by an hour or two. There will be a brief shot of precipitation as the front passes through that could briefly lower the ceilings.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

An active weather pattern will continue through early next week. Strong southerly flow aloft is advecting a stream of subtropical moisture into Southcentral this evening. Rain, heavy at times, is occurring over the southern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound. Snow is seen farther north in the western Susitna Valley as well as wind gusts up to 55 mph over Turnagain Arm. All of this will continue though Sunday morning as the associated low tracks northward. Precipitation will remain all rain over the Kenai Peninsula. Surface temperatures are expected to remain at or just above freezing overnight across the Anchorage Bowl and much of the Mat-Su. However, some models are hinting at slightly cooler air briefly building in behind the aforementioned low. As such, precipitation type north of and including Anchorage remains somewhat uncertain. Given the current southeasterly surface winds, much areas from approximately from the city of Kenai northward will be downsloped for the majority of the event. Thus, any wintery mix that does occur early Sunday morning will be light and likely short-lived.

After a break midday Sunday, a second similar system will approach Southcentral in the evening. This will again bring strong winds along Turnagain Arm and the Anchorage Hillside by early Monday morning. With the exception of higher elevations, an all rain event is expected, with several inches possible over the southern Kenai Peninsula.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Active weather continues across Southwest as the relentless North Pacific wave-train of lows continues to barrage the region. One departing strong gale force low is now lifting into the Bering Strait, bringing strong southerly winds to the Kusko Delta while another deformation zone tracks north into the Bristol Bay and Kusko Valley. This second feature will bring rain/snow mix turning to snow over the eastern Bristol Bay area and Alaska Range, with heavier snow over the Kusko Valley. The bulk of snow ends tonight with a brief respite in weather Sunday. Very quickly Sunday evening and Sunday night, the next storm force low barrels into the Bristol Bay region with the front plowing across Southwest, bringing snow which will then transition to rain (mainly over Bristol Bay). The bigger impact will be snow and blowing snow once again over the Kusko Delta, however, this time, there will likely be limited amounts of snow before the front clears into the Bering Sea. However, with 35+ MPH winds, there will likely be reduced visibility in brief heavy snow Sunday night and Monday morning. Powerful E-SE winds will also blast through parts of the region with this low, especially across Bristol Bay and the Alaska Range where wind gusts will reach 60+ MPH.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

One storm force low departs the Bering into the Strait, another is right on its heels Sunday evening as it moves into Bristol Bay and slowly tracks northward through Monday. This will bring more rain/snow quickly turning to all rain to the Eastern Aleutians. Broad cyclonic flow will remain over the Bering Sea as the low tracks north, with cold air advection rain/snow showers spreading over the remainder of the Chain and Bering Sea.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5).

. Bering Sea and Aleutian Coastal Waters .

An area of low pressure near Nunivak Island early Tuesday morning will bring high sustained gale force winds to the eastern Bering Sea and Bristol Bay region, with perhaps some low-end storm force winds just offshore from the Kuskokwim Delta. This low will then retrograde (move west) and slowly weaken as it reaches Saint Matthew Island by evening, with the winds having subsided to less than 30 knots by then. For the remainder of the region, winds and waves will generally be less than 25 knots with waves generally less than 15 feet. This will continue into Wednesday and Thursday for all of the forecast area.

. Gulf of Alaska .

Sustained storm force winds ahead of a surface front will plague the northern Gulf early Tuesday morning. A favorable dynamic fetch ahead of this feature will allow seas to build into the 25 to 30 feet range. These winds will rapidly drop to the small craft variety by the afternoon, as the best dynamics associated with the front pushes inland. The wave heights will also drop due to the decrease in wind energy.

This reprieve will be short- lived though, as yet another front, associated with a north Pacific low, moves into the region late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Sustained winds will increase to gale force, with the long fetch allowing waves to once again increase into the 20 to 25 feet range.

Heading into Thursday, both the waves and winds will subside as a weakening area of low pressure enters the southwestern Gulf.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).

The forecast remains fraught with uncertainty due to model discrepancy, but some items remain consistent. Synoptically, a progressive pattern will persist over the Bering and Alaska. Starting Tuesday, a vertically stacked low will drift to the northern Bering, steering modified Arctic air over the Aleutians and Bering. The low will gradually weaken and shift towards Siberia, but in the meantime expect scattered showers over much of the Bering/Aleutians through Thursday. Meanwhile, a North Pacific low will drift northward and push a warm occluded front toward the Southern Mainland. Models are consistent bringing decent precipitation to the AKPEN/eastern Aleutians, but how far north and east precipitation reaches is tough to discern, given the lack of consistency with track of the steering low and potential for a triple-point low to develop. But, right now it looks likely that the North Gulf Coast will see precipitation as a front pushes north in the Wednesday to Friday timeframe. By Friday, a strong low will approach the western Aleutians and bring a good swath of precipitation and gusty winds. The front will quickly traverse the chain Friday, possibly turning the Southwest Mainland wet Saturday.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . WSW 155. MARINE . Storms 120 130-132 138 352. Gales 119 125 139-141 150 155 160 165 180 181 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . PS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . AP SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . JA MARINE/LONG TERM . MM/PD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 33 mi54 min NE 5.1 G 8 34°F 32°F989.5 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 74 mi54 min 44°F990.1 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Birchwood, Birchwood Airport, AK21 mi10 minS 7 G 2310.00 miLight Rain44°F33°F65%989 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PABV

Wind History from ABV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS5CalmS3SW3SW5CalmS3S8S6SW5S5CalmCalmCalm4SW63SE4NE14
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1 day agoS4S3S4S4S4S3S3S4S4CalmCalmCalmS3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3SE4CalmS4CalmCalm
2 days agoSE4SE4SE5S3SE4SE3SE3SE4SE3SE4SW4CalmSW4S4S5S3SE3S4S5S6S4S3S4S3

Tide / Current Tables for Sunrise, Turnagain Arm, Alaska
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Sunrise
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:59 AM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:23 AM AKST     29.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:54 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:09 PM AKST     4.74 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:04 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:45 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:12 PM AKST     32.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.85.614.221.326.729.429.226.421.816.812.37.84.8816.923.528.932.231.427.822.917.512.16.7

Tide / Current Tables for Sunrise, Turnagain Arm #11, Alaska
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Sunrise
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:59 AM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:23 AM AKST     29.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:53 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:09 PM AKST     4.74 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:05 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:45 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:12 PM AKST     32.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.85.614.221.326.729.429.226.421.816.812.37.84.8816.923.528.932.231.427.822.917.512.16.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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