Sunday, September27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Anchorage, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:56AMSunset 7:44PM Sunday September 27, 2020 3:40 PM AKDT (23:40 UTC) Moonrise 6:41PMMoonset 12:55AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 644 Am Akdt Sun Sep 27 2020
Today..E wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Tonight..W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Mon night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue through Thu..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Anchorage , AK
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location: 61.18, -149.27     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 271321 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 521 AM AKDT Sun Sep 27 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

Satellite imagery shows a strong, occluded cyclone rapidly approaching the Gulf of Alaska this morning. ASCAT data shows storm force winds in the cold sector to the south of the storm center. Bouy data is currently showing gusts up to 45 kts throughout the gulf, with wave heights up to 17 ft at buoys 001 and 085. The occluded front can be seen on the Middleton Island radar bringing stratiform rain over coastal areas with showers over the Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage Bowl visible on the Kenai radar. Over Southwest, radar indicates showers along the front extending into the AKPEN and Bristol Bay region. Cold air aloft that lead to snow over Bethel late Saturday night has been replaced by warm air from the system in the Gulf. As a result, precipitation over Southwest has transitioned to rain, although snow is still possible over the higher elevations.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models remain in excellent agreement with the cyclone moving into the Gulf this morning. There are slight disagreements on the possible development of a triple point low to the east of Kodiak along the occluded front; however, this should have little impact to the forecast as the overall pressure and wind field remains fairly uniform.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Low clouds this morning are not expected to materialize into a ceiling. Shower activity should taper off mid-morning as northerly surface winds begin to pick up.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday Night) .

The well-advertised large and powerful low is on track this morning. The low is near or has reached peak intensity as measured by the central pressure reaching its lowest point. However, the forecast hurricane force winds north of the low are not yet expected until later on this morning. These winds will form as the easterly flow ahead of the occluded front gets squeezed up against the coastal mountains, creating a narrowing corridor off the coast that the strengthening winds will need to pass through. The primary low will continue to track nearly due north, moving into Prince William Sound tonight, while its forward speed slows. A secondary low may develop west of the main low center, off the coast of Kodiak Island, which will allow the aforementioned corridor of strongest winds to extend westward to near the Barren Islands. The winds will rapidly weaken as the weakening low approaches this afternoon, so the hurricane force winds are only expected to impact the waters off the North Gulf Coast for the morning hours today.

Periods of moderate to heavy rain have begun on Kodiak Island while rainfall rates are increasing across the northern Gulf and eastern Kenai Peninsula as the mountains help lift the copious moisture and squeeze out heavier rain. Once the low moves inland Monday morning, the southerly return flow behind the low will keep periods of heavy rain ongoing, particularly across the northern and eastern Prince William Sound on Monday. That southerly flow will allow for rain and high elevation snow to develop along the mountains into the Copper River Basin on Monday as well.

On Monday night, the remnant surface low and associated upper level low will be absorbed into the upper level trough over Southwest Alaska. As this happens, and an upper level shortwave moves into the area as well, off-and-on rain is expected to impact the Cook Inlet region. This timing is a bit later from previous forecasts, which had most of the rain Monday afternoon. Nevertheless, most areas around Cook Inlet should hold at one tenth of an inch or less of rain.

Then on Tuesday, there will be a brief break in the action ahead of the next storm, with weak ridging and a cooler air mass moving into Southcentral. Thus, we currently expect much of the daylight hours to feature a mix of clouds and sun for all inland locations, while easterly flow keeps coastal locations under the clouds. Meanwhile, the next storm in this "parade of storms" that will impact Southcentral will already be racing across the Gulf. The parent low will track northwestward south and west of Kodiak Island. However, its leading front will impact much of the coast, reaching Kodiak Island Tuesday evening, and spreading across Southcentral Tuesday night. The front will also be strong regarding the winds, and storm force winds are in the forecast for much of the western Gulf late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Thus, the break in the action will be brief.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 3).

An upper level shortwave continues to push westward across the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta this morning. As a result, a few rain showers were occurring this morning with any threat diminishing by the afternoon. Some sleet has been mixing in at times with this shower activity in places like Kipnuk and Toksook Bay with temperatures in the mid 30s. Bethel is on the edge of a stratus deck that may occasionally result in lower ceilings/fog at times this morning. The flow is expected to become more northeasterly off the land late today and into tonight. This is a drying flow which will result in gradual clearing for the region overnight. 850mb temperatures won't be all that cold for Monday morning (generally 2-5 degrees Celsius) keeping generally mid 30s for low temperatures across the Middle Kuskokwim Valley and Yukon- Kuskokwim Delta.

For Bristol Bay today, a piece of upper level energy and a surface trough are expected to make it over the Aleutian/southern Alaska Range and bring a quick shot of rain to Dillingham and King Salmon later this morning into the early afternoon. This surface trough will drift southward and pivot over the AKPEN keeping areas from Pilot Point to Point Heiden in the threat for rain for much of the day and into the overnight hours ending from north to south.

For Tuesday, much of Southwest will remain quiet as the area will be in weak synoptic flow aloft. This will lead to mainly dry conditions for many areas.

Our attention then turns to the next storm system that will be approaching the southern AKPEN Tuesday evening. Basically, expect a return to unsettled conditions with rain and increasing winds beginning Tuesday night and continuing through Wednesday. There is expected to be a downsloping component to this system as well, but expect leeward side of the mountains to be drier with the windward side to be wetter due to upslope.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 3).

Much of the Bering Sea and the Aleutian Chain remains under the influence of northerly flow. This will continue to aid in cold air from the Arctic and Siberia to flow over the relatively warm Bering Sea waters continuing the cumulus cloud development with occasional showers underneath. The eastern Bering and Pribilofs will actually experience warming 850mb temperatures tonight leading to more widespread stratiform rain instead of the convective variety before another shot of colder air moves back in Monday morning.

A frontal system will graze the western Aleutians and Pacific side marine zones with small craft winds and chance of rain Monday into Tuesday.

Our attention then turns to the next storm system that will be approaching the southern AKPEN/eastern Aleutians Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday with storm force winds, increased wave heights and periods of rain.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Tuesday through Thursday).

A strong North Pacific low moves through the Western Gulf into the Eastern Bering for Thu. The track and development of the low vary somewhat as it moves over the Alaska Peninsula, but the system spreads widespread gale force and local storm force winds over the Western Gulf. It will be gustier around Kodiak Island and Shelikof Strait on Wed, and will continue through Thu.

For the Bering and Aleutians, the remains of a front over the Western Aleutians spreads small craft with local gale force winds through early Wed when it moves into the North Pacific. A Gulf of Alaska low moves into Bristol Bay Wed and continues into the eastern Bering for Thu. The track and development of the low vary, but widespread gale force winds move with the front into the eastern Bering slowly diminishing Thu.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Wednesday through Saturday) .

Cold air pooling over the North Pacific will generally maintain a broad upper level trough across the Central North Pacific. This will be the spawning ground for strong surface lows as strong upper short waves round the base of the trough and head north toward the Alaska Peninsula. The first of these strong surface cyclones pushes north toward the AK Peninsula Tuesday night into Wednesday and slowly weakens over the eastern Bering Sea early Thursday. This system along with the front will bring very strong winds and moderate to heavy rains, especially from the Alaska Peninsula to the northern Gulf Coast. The models struggle with the timing and intensity of the next system developing under favorable jet support Thursday/Friday. That said, it does appear that this low track will be further east. If so, then the brunt of the wind and rain will favor the Gulf of Alaska and Southcentral, and Bristol Bay Thursday night through early Saturday.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Hurricane Force Wind Warning . 119, 120. Storm Warning . 351, 352, 139, 130, 131, 132. Gale Warning . 138, 137, 136, 150, 125. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . CJ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . JPW SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . MV MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/BG/SEB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 33 mi53 min SSW 5.1 G 6 55°F 51°F
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 58 mi51 min NW 3.9 G 3.9 49°F 52°F982 hPa (+0.8)47°F
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 74 mi59 min 55°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Birchwood, Birchwood Airport, AK21 mi45 minNE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy58°F34°F41%980.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PABV

Wind History from ABV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S3NE5CalmSE63SE3CalmS4E3CalmNE8NE10NE11NE7NE12NE6NE8NE8NE8
1 day agoCalmNE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3
2 days agoSW3S3SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for Sunrise, Turnagain Arm, Alaska
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Sunrise
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:25 AM AKDT     7.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:58 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:11 AM AKDT     29.67 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:56 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:01 PM AKDT     1.79 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:28 PM AKDT     32.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:39 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.68.615.72226.929.628.725.621.716.9127.33.71.86.215.222.327.932.232.22923.718.814.1

Tide / Current Tables for Sunrise, Turnagain Arm #11, Alaska
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Sunrise
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:25 AM AKDT     7.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:58 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:11 AM AKDT     29.67 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:56 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:01 PM AKDT     1.79 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:28 PM AKDT     32.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:39 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.68.615.72226.929.628.725.621.716.9127.33.71.86.215.222.327.932.232.22923.718.814.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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