Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 9:36 PM Moonrise 3:24 PM   Moonset 5:14 AM

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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
.small craft advisory Thursday - .
Today - W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.Tonight - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Thu - W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near whittier in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.Thu night - W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.Fri - W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.Sat - W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.Sun - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 200011 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 411 PM AKDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/This afternoon through Monday afternoon)...

Few major changes to the previous forecast, though forecast rain amounts continue to drop for Kodiak Island this weekend. Kodiak Island continues to experience the highest impact weather, with a Flood Advisory in effect for Kodiak City and surrounding areas, while a Flood Watch remains in effect for the remainder of the island.

Diving into the details... a large vertically stacked low continues to spin south of the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island, embedded within a high amplitude negatively tilted trough which extends well down into the Northeast Pacific. In between the trough and ridge is deep strong southeast flow, with an atmospheric river pointed right at Kodiak Island and the northwestern Gulf of Alaska. A stationary front is positioned over the southwestern Gulf just south of Kodiak Island. Heavier rain today will taper off by evening as the responsible shortwave trough continues past Kodiak and towards Southwest Alaska.

From tonight through Saturday, there will be a fundamental change in what has been a stationary pattern. The upper level trough in the Pacific will continue to dog all the way toward the Northwest CONUS, cutting off the atmospheric river. At the same time, the upper level ridge will begin to retreat to the north and east, allowing winds to weaken at all levels of the atmosphere.
Therefore, by Saturday a much weakened front will be positioned over the southern Gulf and Kodiak Island with much weaker upper level short-waves embedded in the flow across the Gulf. Kodiak Island will still see periods of rain tonight through Saturday night, but intensity will be light. Thus, the threat of flooding and landslides will diminish greatly as we head through the weekend. By Sunday, multiple short-waves along with the remnants of the current upper center will all morph into a newly formed upper low south of Kodiak Island. Precipitation will become more showery, with some breaks from the rain.

Meanwhile, the upper level ridge will continue to produce warm and dry conditions over nearly all of Southcentral. The only exception is the southern Kenai Peninsula, which will remain along the northern periphery of the precipitation shield. Cloud cover has been extensive the past couple days. However, as the upper trough digs across the northeast Pacific and becomes more negatively tilted, flow between the trough and ridge will back toward the east. This will help clear out clouds for all except the Kenai Peninsula, bringing a return to sunny skies. The upper level ridge over Mainland Alaska will weaken on Sunday, allowing the upper low and trough over the Gulf to lift northward toward Southcentral. Overall, models are trending towards less impactful weather with this system. While the corresponding surface low looks to bring winds of about 25 kt to Gulf waters for Monday, as well as increasing cloud cover and precipitation chances along the coast, a progressive upper level pattern looks to push the system east before it gets too close to the Southcentral Alaska coast.

-SEB/KC

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A shortwave associated with the low south of the Eastern Aleutians continues to move west over the Pribilof Islands, where a Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow is currently in effect through this evening. Precipitation along the Alaska Peninsula and westward to Dutch Harbor will subside later tonight as the shortwave weakens. Gusty winds for Southwest Alaska will continue through tonight before a new shortwave moves north into the area.

The new shortwave will provide another round of precipitation for the Bristol Bay area into Saturday afternoon before the wave moves west into the Bering. The Pribilof Islands will again get snow showers before the shortwave dissipates Saturday night.
Consistent onshore flow along the Eastern Aleutians will allow for showery precipitation to occur through Sunday afternoon.
Moisture associated with the atmospheric river over Kodiak Island will continue to move over Southwest through Sunday, providing the chance for precipitation in the meantime.

The next main area of concern will take place over the far Western Aleutians, as a shortwave low from the North Pacific and an upper-level low from eastern Russia interact Sunday morning. The two systems will phase together north of Shemya and develop into a mature low over the western Bering. An occluded front from the low will begin to move eastward Monday morning as widespread gale- force winds and heavier precipitation will spread over the Aleutians and Central Bering through Monday evening. The majority of precipitation along the Aleutians should be in the form of rain as warmer southerly air surges northward. The Pribilof Islands may get a rain/snow mix, and areas near the low center will likely stay as snow with colder air wrapping in behind the front.

-BS

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

A pattern shift is expected as we go into the weekend with the synoptic pattern breaking down. Sunday into Monday, a strong low develops as it moves into the western Bering Sea that will track a front eastward next week. While the pattern is expected to break down leading into the long term forecast, high pressure will remain somewhat stubborn over Canada and stretching into the interior of mainland Alaska. The strength and placement of the ridge will influence the direction of the upstream flow. Expect unsettled weather to continue through next week. Periods of rain spread across Southcentral Alaska through Wednesday from the Kenai Peninsula to the Canadian Border.

Additional subtropical moisture will be drawn into the developing western Aleutian low early next week. Heavy precipitation will spread across the Aleutians beginning as rain and transitions to snow. Cold air wrapping into the low will help reinforce the potential for strong, storm force winds. The influence of the front appears to stretch into the northern Bering, affecting the Pribilofs and St Matthew.

Potentially heavy rainfall continues to spread into the Alaska Peninsula with the front through Tuesday, and into Southwest Alaska late Tuesday and Wednesday. Another round of locally heavy rains moves into Kodiak Island late Tuesday through Thursday.
Gusty, southeasterly winds moves through the Barren Island into Kamishak Bay Wednesday and Thursday. Some of the moisture could be diverted south depending on the interior ridge, but heavy precipitation remains possible and the amounts will depend on whether there is additional support from a secondary trough phasing with the front. Model agreement also breaks down towards the end of the week.

rux

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Sunrise
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:35 AM AKDT     4.50 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:14 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:14 AM AKDT     30.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:23 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:23 PM AKDT     4.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:24 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:24 PM AKDT     29.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:31 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sunrise, Turnagain Arm, Alaska, Tide feet

Sunrise
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:35 AM AKDT     4.50 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:14 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:14 AM AKDT     30.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:23 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:23 PM AKDT     4.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:24 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:24 PM AKDT     29.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:31 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sunrise, Turnagain Arm #11, Alaska, Tide feet

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