Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Point MacKenzie, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Monday through Thursday afternoon)...

An active pattern continues across Southwest Alaska, the Bering Sea and Aleutians through the middle of the week as a series of upper-level disturbances track across the region. A compact upper- level low near the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutians today will gradually lift north and east, while another upper- level low approaches the western Aleutians from the North Pacific.

For today, the upper low near the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) will continue to support areas of rain and gusty winds across portions of Southwest Alaska, the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN. Farther west, the next system approaches the western Aleutians, with increasing winds and rain spreading into the region.

By Tuesday, the first upper low begins to weaken as it lifts farther into Southwest Alaska, while the western Aleutian system becomes the more dominant feature. This low and its associated front will progress eastward along the Aleutian Chain, bringing another round of rain and gusty winds from west to east. Periods of low clouds and fog will also remain possible across the Bering and Aleutians.

Wednesday into Thursday, the upper low continues eastward toward the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN. This will maintain unsettled conditions across much of the Aleutians and southern Bering , with rain and gusty winds gradually shifting east. Increasing chances for precipitation will spread toward Bristol Bay and portions of Southwest Alaska as the system approaches. Model agreement decreases somewhat with the exact position and strength of the low later Wednesday into Thursday, the overall pattern favors continued unsettled conditions through the end of the period.

LM



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

The long-term period starts with an upper-level low situated over Bristol Bay and a surface low over the Alaska Peninsula or extreme western Gulf of Alaska. These features will bring rain across the Southern Mainland through Thursday.

A stronger and potentially more impactful storm for Friday and the weekend across the Southern Mainland begins to take shape upstream in Kamchatka Thursday. A strong shortwave digs south from Siberia to the northern Bering Sea by Friday morning. A gale- force surface low Will move into the northern Bering around St.
Matthew Island to St. Lawrence Island by Friday morning. Moderate to heavy rain is likely to overspread the Southern Mainland, starting first with Southwest on Friday, and working east to Southcentral through Saturday. Showers continue across the Southern Mainland on Sunday as the low works farther into Western Alaska.

Trends with this system, deviations in track and strength, will have to be watched closely when it comes to determining coastal impacts along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast. Taking a quick look at ensemble data, the GFS and Canadian ensemble suites are more in line with each other with a slower and stronger solution. The European ensemble guidance is a little faster with the storm track which has the system moving inland of Western Alaska by Friday; this solution also features a weak system. Regardless, there will be a push of on-shore flow with this system, it will be a matter of its magnitude which will be ironed out in due time.

Farther out west, embedded shortwaves moving from west to east atop a strong North Pacific ridge will keep the Aleutian Chain showery at times for Thursday. The northern Bering low's front will also sweep across the Chain for Friday and make it to the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) for Friday night into Saturday. The southern AKPEN will see the wettest conditions with this front Friday night into Saturday as it only grazes the Aleutian Chain Friday. The AKPEN will remain showery for Saturday and Sunday as flow turns northerly behind the northern Bering low which is moving inland by then. A surface ridge works in across the Central and Eastern Aleutians Saturday and Sunday as shortwave and another round of showers approaches the Western Aleutians from the North Pacific.


AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to remain through the TAF period, though periods of showers may causing ceilings to dip to MVFR at times. Gusty southerly winds will persist through the day and start to diminish some overnight. As the surface winds and winds aloft are both from the south, low level wind shear is no longer expected.