Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Point MacKenzie, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Sunday evening)...

The forecast remains on track with an upper-level low currently over the Middle Yukon Valley in the vicinity of Galena. This low will continue to dig south the rest of tonight and into Friday when it moves into the Kuskokwim Valley. This system will be accompanied by cold air aloft and an unstable airmass. Most showery activity will remain along the Western Alaska Range the rest of today. Shower coverage looks to expand for Friday to include the interior Bristol Bay mountain ranges and along the Kuskokwim Mountains as well. For Saturday, a North Pacific low will lift into Gulf of Alaska. This low will interact with the upper-level low over the Kuskokwim Valley and help to produce a deformation precipitation band over Saturday morning. As the upper-level low over the Kuskokwim Valley drifts west to the Kuskokwim Delta the rest of the day Saturday, this deformation band will also drift west into interior Southwest. Precipitation intensity within this bad Saturday evening through Sunday morning could be enough to bring cold air aloft down to the surface.
Therefore, light snow is possible from Sleetmute to Iliamna Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Precipitation will continue to linger along the interior through Sunday.

Farther out west, an upper-level low, currently across Kamchatka, extends a front across the western Bering and the Western Aleutians. This trough is helping to keep showers going across Adak and Atka. The frontal boundary over Adak and Atka will continue to decay through Saturday morning as showers will begin to taper off by then. A ridge over the northern Bering extending into the central Bering will continue to weaken and break down through Saturday as it retreats to Siberia. This will open the door for a more progressive pattern across the Bering as a low just south of Kamchatka Saturday afternoon sends its front to the western Bering and Western Aleutians by Saturday evening. This front does not look overly strong with patchy low-end gales likely along the western Bering and Western Aleutian Chain. Moderate rain will accompany this front as it moves over Shemya. This front then moves to and spreads light rain over Adak/Atka by Sunday morning as it continues to weaken. The front and associated light rain eventually moves to Nikolski/Unalaska by Sunday evening.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

Models continue to remain in fair agreement on an active and progressive pattern through the long term forecast. A strong front pushes through the Aleutian Islands Monday, attached to an Aleutian low. This progresses eastward to the AK Pen by Tuesday afternoon, Kodiak Island Wednesday night, then reaching the Gulf by Thursday. Periods of wind and rain will be generated along the path of the low, including the Northern Gulf Coast.

Another Aleutian low, not as strong as the previous one, inters the region Wednesday afternoon. There is significant disagreement on the track of the low. However, there is an upper level low over the Western Aleutians that will influence the surface low to take a more northerly track.



AVIATION

PANC...Light rain showers will linger through this evening. Gusty southerly winds will continue through this afternoon before weakening. Winds will flip to northerly later Friday morning. VFR conditions expected.