Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Knik-Fairview, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday morning)...

Active weather continues as a low pressure system in the Bering Sea gradually weakens. With the front having exited east into Southcentral Alaska, showers and gusty winds will sweep across the region today due to a combination of cold air advection and upper level shortwaves rounding the low center.

While the current low weakens over the central Bering Sea through Wednesday, a couple other lows will approach from the Pacific.
The first will be a weak low approaching the central Aleutians on Tuesday, with an uptick in winds and another round of rain for the Central to Eastern Aleutians Tuesday through Tuesday night. A deeper low will approach the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday night through Wednesday, with a leading frontal system lifting northward into Bristol Bay. Expect strong and gusty easterly winds across the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay along with areas of rain. While the forecast remains largely on track, overnight forecast updates have led to shifts in the tracks of both lows. For the first low moving into the Aleutian Islands, the core of stronger winds have shifted eastward. For the second low moving towards the Alaska Peninsula, there have been minor timing changes through Tuesday night. By Wednesday morning, however, models begin to differ with how quickly and how far north the low and its front will move.
This will affect the northern extent of precipitation and gusty winds for Southwest Alaska.

-SEB/KC

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

The long-term period looks to stay mainly active from the Bering Sea, The Gulf of Alaska, and the southern mainland. A broad trough across the Bering Sea will extend eastward into the Gulf Thursday and into the weekend as the trough digs southward with time.
While there is good agreement synoptically with upper-level pattern, there are still questions and uncertainties regarding surface features. There is lots of ensemble spread with regards to surface low pressure centers Thursday through Sunday across the Bering Sea and Gulf. This will have implications on both the precipitation forecast as well as the wind forecast across both areas and locations that are inland. However, there is reasonable agreement between operational guidance and the ensemble suites that upper- level ridging will develop across the Western Aleutians/western Bering Sea Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION

PANC...Expect mostly MVFR conditions today as waves of rain showers move across the terminal. Winds could gust to 15-20 kts as Turnagain Arm winds bend into the terminal throughout today.
Winds relax late tonight into Tuesday morning as any shower activity will come to an end, permitting a return to VFR conditions.