DISCUSSION
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a 531 dam (decameter) low is northeast Wrangel Island with broad troughing extending across much of mainland Alaska. This upper low slowly moves north northwest into the high Arctic through Saturday. A shortwave extending from the low southeast to Allakaket to Anderson to Glennallen this morning will lift northeast to stretch from near Wainwright to Venetie and into the northern Yukon by Thursday morning, weakening through the day Thursday. A second shortwave stretches south from the low northeast of Wrangel Island across the Chukotsk Peninsula to the Pribilofs to a 545 dam low near Nikolski. This shortwave continues eastward stretching from the northwest Arctic coast and across the Western Interior to the Gulf of Alaska Thursday morning, lifting northeast across the Central Interior late Thursday. By Friday afternoon this shortwave extends from Utqiagvik to Anaktuvuk Pass to near Northway. Behind this second shortwave, weak ridging builds eastward across the Bering Sea through early Friday. By Friday afternoon, a low moves across the Kamchatka Peninsula and into the western Bering Sea, before tracking eastward toward the West Coast. Meanwhile, weak ridging over the Eastern Beaufort Sea moves north into the high Arctic by this afternoon, as a 537 dam low over the Queen Elizabeth Islands largely remains in place and deepens to 532 dam by Friday morning.

At the surface, a 1001 mb low is northeast of Wrangel Island with a front extending southeast to Wainwright to Eagle. As the low lifts north, the front moves northeast to stretch from near Utqiagvik to Arctic Village and into the northern Yukon, continuing east and weakening tonight into Thursday. A second front extends to Wainwright to near Kotzebue to the western tip of the Seward Peninsula this morning weakens today as it moves east northeast. A 997 mb low between the Pribilofs and False Pass tracks east to Port Heiden this afternoon and then into the Gulf of Alaska. Behind this low, weak high pressure builds east across the Bering Sea. A dissipating 990 mb low over the Western Bering Thursday morning pushes a weak front northeast across the Bering Thursday night and to the West Coast Friday. A 1022 mb high near the Pole, remains in place into Saturday, with high pressure stretching south to Mackenzie Bay, while a 1002 mb low moves out of northern Canada to the Queen Elizabeth Island Thursday night.
This low tracks northwest through Saturday into the high Arctic.

Models...
The 11/00Z model suite initialized well aloft and at the surface and solutions where in good agreement through early Friday.
Differences begin to appear Friday morning and continue into this weekend with the upper level low moving across Kamchatka and the Bering Sea. Models continue to struggle with resolving this feature, with quite the spread in strength and track. For the short-term, only minor edits were made to the inherited forecast package to account for ongoing precipitation and wind trends.
Nudged pops towards the NBM and AKSREF to bring in some higher values. Did a model blend for winds Friday afternoon and night to account for model disagreement with the front Saturday, this allowed for a middle ground for speed and timing.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Seasonal temperatures return today as southerly flow shuts off, with highs largely in the 40s by Thursday. Easterly winds of 15 to 25 mph persist through at least Saturday along the eastern and central Beaufort Sea Coast. Precip largely confined to the Brooks Range and east of Utqiagvik today and tonight, with precip shifting eastward Thursday. A mix of rain and snow expected in the Brooks Range, with mostly snow above 4500 feet. Only light snow accumulations are expected.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Quieter conditions anticipated over the next couple of days.
Shower activity will be isolated today, with even fewer showers on Thursday. Shower activity increases on Friday as a weak front approaches the West Coast and moves onshore. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies and seasonal temperatures are expected. Winds generally less than 10 mph through Thursday. Thursday night into Friday with the approach and passage of a weak front, winds become southerly and increase to 10 to 15 mph along the coast.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Shower activity tapers off from the southwest to the northeast today as the remnants of a front lifts northeast, with the exception of the Alaska Range, where shower activity persists. On Thursday and Friday, energy moving up and over the Alaska Range will support scattered showers over the southern Interior, in particular the southeast Interior, where rainfall totals of a quarter inch to half an inch are possible. An isolated thunderstorm or two remains possible this afternoon and evening near Eagle. Weak southerly gap flow develops briefly in the Alaska Range passes this afternoon, tapering off tonight. Near normal temperatures expected.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...The struggle continues in the extended range as models continue to have a difficult time in resolving a low pressure system moving across Kamchatka and the Bering Sea Friday into the weekend. This low pressure system will push a front to the West Coast Saturday into Sunday, bringing gale force winds, heavy precipitation, and the potential for elevated water along the West Coast. Confidence remains low with the details of this system. Moving into early next week, troughing spreads eastward across much of mainland Alaska, maintaining unsettled conditions, a mix of sun and clouds, and seasonal temperatures.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A low pressure system moving across Kamchatka and the Bering Sea will push a front to the West Coast Saturday into Sunday. Gale force winds will accompany this front, bringing the potential for elevated water along the West Coast. There remains great spread in the track of this system, resulting in low forecast confidence at this time.
Wind direction and water levels will be highly dependent on the low track. Confidence remains low with the details of this system.

HYDROLOGY
Rivers across the Interior will rise slightly over the next several days as recent rainfall moves into the river basins.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815-861.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ860.