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PKZ801 Etolin Strait To Dall Point Out To 15 Nm- 321 Pm Akdt Wed Oct 4 2023
.gale warning in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..NE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..NE winds 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri..NE winds 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat night..N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sun..N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Mon..NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

PKZ800
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 042259 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 259 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SYNOPSIS

Snow showers will prevail with westerly flow along the western coast of the North Slope. Showers around Norton Sound will taper off as northeasterly winds ramp up through the Bering Strait, Norton Sound, and the Yukon Delta tonight and lasting into this weekend. Good chance for elevated surf that could lead to minor beach erosion. Snow chances increase over the Interior again Thursday night. Models have captured the overall weather picture well, but has continued to struggle with the details.

DISCUSSION

Upper Levels and Analysis... Upper level flow spans zonally across the Bering Strait and through the Alaska Canadian Border with a 100 kt jet streak near Seward Peninsula to the Central Interior. A ridge stretches from the Gulf of Alaska to the Gulf of Anadyr is being sandwiched between an Arctic low and a broad trough with a couple of surface lows across the Aleutians and the North Pacific. Other than snow showers along the northwestern coast, high pressure is keeping weather cool and relatively quiet across the mainland with fog this morning over locations that had snow the day prior.

Central and Eastern Interior... Fog is lifting across portions of the interior leaving scattered high clouds, clear skies, and quieter weather for many areas today and tonight. Overnight lows will vary with clear and calm locations potentially plunging into the teens and even the single digits. Other areas that keep a little cloud cover or a slight breeze, could remain in the 20s.
The pressure gradient will tighten over most of the state on Thursday, and there could be some gusty northeast winds over higher terrain and the Tanana Valley Jet setting up over the southern Interior. Higher elevations along the Elliott, Dalton, and Steese Highway could have gusts around 30 mph. Winds could linger through Friday. A warm front from a low tracking to Bristol Bay will lift into the interior Thursday that will increase snow potential beginning with the Richardson and Alaska Highways. There is quite a bit of differences in the models with flow turning southerly that could lead to downsloping and cutting off precipitation on the leeside of the mountains. The snow forecast for the last half of the week is challenge. It will depend on the strength of the southerly cross barrier flow and the strength of the ridge moving across the Alaska Range. There could be some degree of gusty, southerly gap wind flow, but nothing too strong to cut off too much precipitation. While precipitation type is expected to be snow, a wintry mix cannot be ruled out.

West Coast and Western Interior... Surface high pressure building across the interior midweek with low pressure systems in the North Pacific and Bering Seas will help to substantially ramp up winds out of the northeast Thursday into Friday. Northeast winds around 25 to 40 mph with some gusts over 50 mph on Saint Lawrence Island are possible. Elevated surf is expected to develop along the coast near the Yukon Delta and St Lawrence Island. North to northeasterly winds will increase Thursday morning and continue through the day. Winds will gradually decrease Friday through Saturday morning. Wave action may cause minor erosion. Residents with items on the beach should move them inland to prevent them from washing away.

North Slope and Brooks Range... Snow showers will prevail through at least Thursday along the western North Slope coast, carrying a little more east and spreading along the northern coast through the end of this week. Westerly winds of 15 to 25 mph is expected to last into Thursday. Cold air will remain in place with temperatures near the coast around freezing during the day and the upper 20s overnight. Further inland, closer to the Brooks Range, span from the single digits to the teens at night and teens and 20s during the day. Winds shifting northerly this weekend and even to the northeast will only reinforce cold air to remain across the North Slope. Away from the coast, snow showers may occur, but no substantially moisture will move inland.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7... A front lifting into the interior this weekend will stall enough to bring potentially prolonged periods of snowfall for the central and eastern interior into next week. The extent north and westward will depend on the orientation of the front, the position of the low moving out of Bristol Bay, and the resulting interaction and associated energy over the central interior to the arctic low.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4... Northeasterly winds will develop for the later half of the week. Winds through the Bering Strait could raise surf along St Lawrence Island and northern facing coastlines of the Seward Peninsula and Yukon Delta. Winds and subsequent seas will gradually subside over the weekend.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ850.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-802-850-853.
Gale Warning for PKZ803>805-851-852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ860.

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Kokechik Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:40 AM AKDT     1.69 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:18 AM AKDT     5.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:18 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:35 PM AKDT     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:00 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:31 PM AKDT     7.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:25 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:33 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kokechik Bay, Cape Romanzof, Alaska, Tide feet

Cape Romanzof
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:15 AM AKDT     1.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:41 AM AKDT     5.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:19 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:10 PM AKDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:07 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:54 PM AKDT     7.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:25 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:27 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Romanzof, Alaska, Tide feet

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