Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chevak, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...
-A front brings widespread showers to the Southern Interior Monday through Tuesday. Most rain will be from Fairbanks south to the Alaska Range. Rain totals of 1 to 2 tenths of an inch expected.
The most likely scenario for Fairbanks still appears to be just a short period of light rain overnight Monday into Tuesday

-Easterly winds increase ahead of the front Sunday night with gusts up to 25 mph expected in many valleys and up to 35 mph possible at elevation. Winds diminish Tuesday.

-Precipitation with the front will begin as rain, but snow levels will fall to around 1500 feet Monday night, with accumulating snow possible along the Parks and Richardson Highways through the Alaska Range. See Special Weather Statement for more details.

West Coast and Western Interior...
-A low-pressure system moves into the eastern Bering Sea this morning. A front ahead of it will bring widespread rainfall to the West Coast from the Bering Strait south and to the southwestern Interior Sunday night through Tuesday, with rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 tenths of an inch possible south of Nome.

-Gusty easterly winds ahead of the front ramp up Sunday with coastal areas from the Bering Strait south seeing sustained speeds of 25 to 30 mph and gusts to near 40 mph possible. St.
Lawrence Island and the YK Delta will see stronger winds with sustained values of 30 to 40 mph and gusts up to 50 mph possible.
Winds ease Monday.

-Showery conditions from the Seward Peninsula south on Tuesday, then drying and warming expected Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
-Blizzard conditions persist at Barter Island through Sunday afternoon and into the early evening.

-Light snow across the North Slope tapers off overnight Sunday, though low stratus will persist as high pressure drifts south over the area.

-Winds turn easterly overnight Sunday and increase to 20 to 30 mph through the day Monday. Blowing snow could reduce visibility, especially near Point Lay. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
High pressure persists over the Chukchi Sea while a trough swinging down from the Arctic continues to bring light snow to the Arctic Coast. Blizzard conditions continue this afternoon at Point Thomson and Kaktovik.
Winds are expected to ease this evening and turn back to easterly tomorrow. Northwest flow across the Interior with a building ridge to the south is keeping skies mostly clear, temperatures near climatological norms, and winds breezy. Significant change will come to most areas south of the Brooks Range early this week as a front originating from the vertically stacked low pressure system in the Bering Sea brings rain from the Yukon Delta late this evening and pushes into the Interior Monday. Snow levels will fall to around 1500 feet Monday night into Tuesday, meaning snow is likely along the Parks and Richardson Highways through the Alaska Range. Have issued a Special Weather Statement for that and made adjustments to the forecast. Precipitation will start as rain there Monday mid-day then turn to snow in the late evening and overnight. Total precipitation amounts will range from 0.5" near the Yukon Delta and in the Eastern Alaska Range to 0.25" near Nome to 0.1" or less for Fairbanks. A warming and drying trend begins again on Wednesday for most of the area as an upper high over the Arctic nudges its way south over the area.

FIRE WEATHER
Relative humidity will drop into the teens across Interior Valleys today with breezy west winds especially across the Tanana Valley east of Salcha. Wind gusts should remain 25 mph or less. The arrival of a front from the Bering Sea overnight tonight and into Monday will moderate conditions considerably.
Minimum RH values increase to around 30% for Monday and 40% on Tuesday before another drying trend begins Wednesday. The front from the Bering Sea will be quite stable, so no thunderstorms are expected. Wetting rains are likely from the Yukon Delta to the Seward Peninsula and south of a line from Kaltag to Nenana to Chicken through Tuesday. Areas north of this line will have difficulty accumulating much rainfall due to a northerly gradient bringing in dry air at the surface from the Arctic. The Fairbanks area may only see a brief period of light rain on Monday night with little if any precipitation expected north of Fairbanks.

HYDROLOGY
Based on ice running by Galena for most of the day on Saturday, it is likely that the in-place ice on the Yukon River from the Boneyard to the Nowitna River is getting pushed out. The river is open from Ruby down to Kaltag with continuing ice and ice stranded in shallow areas. In-place ice remains several miles below Kaltag as of Saturday evening. On the Koyukuk River, the river ice at Huslia lifted on Friday and is thermally degraded but in-place down to Winthrop Point. Below Winthrop Point the river is a mix of degraded in-place ice on bends alternating with open stretches to near the mouth which is open for several miles upstream from Koyukuk community.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...High pressure persists over the Arctic until early next week. There is above average uncertainty on how the pattern plays out over the West Coast, though features generally look weak and . Across the interior, weak ridging should keep precipitation limited and skies mostly sunny, though the high pressure to the north along with low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska should allow for some showers near the Alaska Range, mainly south of Fairbanks. Temperatures climb each day across Northern Alaska through next week. By next weekend, 70 degrees will be possible in the Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-852-853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-806.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
Gale Warning for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ817.
Gale Warning for PKZ850.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.
Gale Warning for PKZ854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.