DISCUSSION

Analysis...A shortwave continues to push precipitation northeast through the Brooks Range and North Slope while a weak area of ridging is drying the Interior. Just off the west coast of Kodiak Island, a 991 mb surface low continues to get pushed to the northeast over the Gulf of Alaska. This will increase rain chances over the south Western Interior tonight before the Central and East Interior on Thursday and Friday before the system enters the Yukon, taking showers north up the Alcan border on Saturday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Along the Arctic Coast, 15 to 25 mph winds are expected east of Utqiagvik on the Arctic Coast through Friday before winds move off the coast on Saturday.
Through the day tomorrow, precipitation is expected along the Brooks Range (rain and snow) and west of Utqiagvik (rain), but most of the eastern North Slope is expected to remain dry.

West Coast and Western Interior...
In the coming hours, upper ridging will begin to work over the West Coast, resulting in dry conditions. The southern Western Interior will begin to see showers work in from the south ahead of a low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies and seasonal temperatures are expected. Winds generally less than 10 mph through Thursday. Thursday night into Friday with the approach and passage of a weak front, winds become southerly and increase to 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts along the coast.

Central and Eastern Interior...Currently, radar and ground observations show that a weak ridge is working northeast across the state to dry the region. Only a few isolated showers remain in the White Mountains. Tomorrow afternoon and evening, rain showers will begin to work into the region as the system in the Gulf of Alaska moves to the northeast. Highs are expected to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s into the weekend. Lows are expected to fall into the upper 30s to low 40s.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...The struggle continues in the extended range as models continue to have a difficult time in resolving a low pressure system moving across Kamchatka and the Bering Sea Friday into the weekend. This low pressure system will push a front to the West Coast Saturday into Sunday, bringing gale force winds, heavy precipitation, and the potential for elevated water along the West Coast. Confidence remains low with the details of this system. Moving into early next week, troughing spreads eastward across much of mainland Alaska, maintaining unsettled conditions, a mix of sun and clouds, and seasonal temperatures.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A low pressure system moving across Kamchatka and the Bering Sea will push a front to the West Coast Saturday into Sunday. Gale force winds will accompany this front, bringing the potential for elevated water along the West Coast. There has been some improvements in the guidance of the track of the storm, but enough spread remains to limit confidence in the forecast. Wind direction and water levels will be highly dependent on the low track.

HYDROLOGY...
Rivers across the Interior will rise slightly over the next several days as recent rainfall moves into the river basins.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815-861.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ860.