Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aniak, AK

SYNOPSIS
Upper level shortwave trofs with associated upper-level vorticity-maximums, providing lift, moving from Southeast to Northwest periodically through the rest of this weekend & next week will bring some periods of isolated to scattered light snow showers to the region. A tightened pressure gradient from an area of high pressure over the Arctic Ocean keeps gusty winds over the Arctic Coast, generally through the forecast period. The exception will be the Chukchi Sea Coast / Bering Strait area, where the wind gusts will subside for the latter half of the weekend & Monday as the gradient there relaxes a bit. Temperatures across the region will finally be dropping to around normal values starting the latter half of this weekend. The winds to the east will increase, once again, for Monday night through the majority of the work-week as the pressure gradient tightens up, again. This may cause a bit of periodic blowing snow around the Arctic Coast during the peak of the winds from Monday night through Tuesday night for areas that receive any light snowfall, appreciably reducing visibilities, at times.
Then, winds over the region significantly subside by Friday & heading into next weekend as that gradient relaxes as the Gulf low weakens & drifts east-southeastward.

SHORT TERM
/Through Monday Night/...The overall weather pattern shows broad trofing is in place over northern Alaska with a strong ridge of high pressure of about 1030mb set-up over the Arctic Ocean. Looking up at the 500mb heights/vorticity model forecast output, several weak shortwave trofs with associated lift-providing vort-maxes look to move over our region, rotating counterclockwise around a quick series of strong SFC lows of about 970mb poised over the Gulf of Alaska.
These will bring some isolated to scattered snow showers with light accumulations to the region through much of next week.

As we move into next week, colder & drier air advects into the region, finally cooling the Interior down to around normal values, which is confirmed by model forecast 850mb temperature & 700mb moisture advection. Any breaks in the clouds during the overnight hours, which are becoming more likely as time progresses, will assist in this. Additional weaker shortwave trofs will continue to rotate around the parent low in the Gulf as we move into next week, with less energy & moisture to work with, bringing our AOR more snow showers, but they will be lighter/weaker & more scattered/isolated in coverage as time progresses.

As far as the winds are concerned, the tightened North to South pressure gradient over the Arctic Coast down to the Bering Strait will be generally keeping winds gusty between an area of high pressure over the Arctic Ocean & lower pressure to the south. The high has shifted westward for this weekend, keeping winds increased for the Chukchi Sea Coast & Bering Strait areas & decreasing winds for the Beaufort Sea Coast. The Arctic high will then shift back eastward on Monday, increasing winds, once again, for the Beaufort Sea coast & decreasing them for the Bering Strait area. These increased winds over the Arctic Coastal areas may cause periodic blowing snow, reducing visibilities, at times.

These wind gusts look to particularly ramp up later Monday night & last through the Tuesday night timeframe & may get up to around 50 mph. As the snow character will be fluffy with any light snow showers that may occur in that area as temperatures throughout the atmospheric column will remain quite cold, the aforementioned strong wind gusts could blow the snow around, significantly reduce visibilities, impacting travel for several hours during that timeframe. As this is getting out into the Long Term forecast period, will continue to monitor the situation as the timeframe grows closer & will provide further updates as expected conditions warrant.

LONG TERM
/Tuesday through Friday/...The weather pattern generally remains the same through the rest of the forecast period.
The strong Arctic high will remain parked over the Arctic Ocean, & strong lows will continue to track from WNW to ESE through the Gulf of Alaska with general broad trofing remaining over the majority of Alaska with weaker shortwaves of energy rotating counterclockwise around the Gulf lows, periodically bringing continued chances light isolated to scattered snow showers through the period. Those snow showers will be lighter & more isolated in nature as time progresses as low pressure becomes less dominant. Along with this, the area will see more breaks in the clouds over time, as well.

Gusty winds will remain in place over the Arctic Coastal areas due to the tightened North to South pressure gradient that will already be in place, causing some blowing snow at times, reducing visibilities. Notably, temperatures will continue to cool to around normal values for this time of year for the Interior along with the rest of our AOR, potentially dipping to around or a bit below zero for overnight lows, especially for some areas outside & to the East & North of Fairbanks, especially if we see some more appreciable breaks in the clouds, which looks more likely as we move further into next week. This outcome is further supported by model forecast CAA & less moisture advecting over the area for the period.

Winds for the Arctic Coastal areas start to taper down on Thursday as a change in the general weather pattern takes place, & that will continue through the end of the forecast period as the pressure gradient relaxes between the aforementioned high over the Arctic Ocean & low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska as the low slides east- southeastward while gradually weakening.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL
No coastal hazard concerns are anticipated at this time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ810>812- 856>858.
Gale Warning until noon AKST Sunday for PKZ811.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon AKST Sunday for PKZ812.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 PM to 6 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ812-814-861.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for PKZ813- 860.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ813.
Brisk Wind Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ814.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for PKZ814.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 9 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ814- 860.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ815- 859.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ817.
Gale Warning until 6 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ857.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for PKZ859.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ859.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until noon AKST Sunday for PKZ861.