Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 9:36 PM Moonrise 3:06 PM   Moonset 4:56 AM

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FXAK69 PAFG 182124 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 124 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows an upper low over eastern Russia, while upper riding continues to expand across Interior Alaska. Mid and upper level moisture and a weak upper disturbance has led to widespread cloud cover across much of Alaska. Dry air over western Canada should progress northeast over the next couple of days. Coastal snow and inland rain will continue through tonight, dissipating on Friday as the eastern Russia low lifts to the northeast. Northeasterly flow along the North Slope will keep temperatures cold, with fog and snow. Overall, models are in decent agreement through the weekend, with high pressure dominating across much of Alaska. By early to mid next week, unsettled weather looks to return to the West Coast, however, models and ensembles vary in timing and precipitation amounts.

DISCUSSION

Upper level ridging across Interior Alaska will expand and strengthen through the weekend. 500 mb heights look to exceed 565 dam on Friday. Drier air from western Canada will also fill in across Interior Alaska as the weak embedded energy responsible for the current cloud cover lifts to our north. This should allow for clearing conditions on Friday. Temperatures will remain warm through the weekend, with 40s to even a few lower 60s in the lee of the Alaska Range. Chinook winds will continue into this evening along the lee slopes of the Alaska Range, where wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will remain possible. These winds will decrease overnight as the gradient relaxes and upper ridging builds overhead. As we move late into the weekend and early next week, the upper ridge will begin to break down. Temperatures look to cool slightly as upper heights fall. Highs early next week will range from the lower 40s into the mid 50s. Overall, precipitation chances look low, with expanding potential over the interior western zones.

Precipitation looks to continue along the West Coast through Friday morning, decreasing tomorrow afternoon as the upper ridge expands across the region, and the upper low to the west lifts to the northeast. Light snow along the coast, and interior rain will continue overnight, with near steady temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Additional snow amounts will remain at less than an inch. Temperatures will then warm through the weekend into early next week with mid 30s to lower 40s. The next upper storm system looks to take shape in the Tuesday to Thursday time frame.
There are model differences, with the strength of an upper disturbance lifting north along the West Coast. The GFS and ECMWF both have an upper system, with the ECMWF on the stronger side, with more widespread western Alaska precipitation. The GFS is much weaker, with less precipitation. Attention then turns to a frontal boundary sometime Wednesday into Thursday, with better chances for precipitation and gusty winds. However, there is a lot of uncertainty with timing.

Areas along the North Slope will continue to see low stratus, fog and periods of light snowfall through the next several days.
Northeasterly flow will also continue, briefly turning northwesterly as the eastern Russia upper system ejects to the north. Flow will then return to northeasterly for early next week.
This will help keep temperatures in the teens to 20s, with continued fog and periods of light snowfall.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ847-849.
Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-850-857-858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-813.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.

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