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FXAK69 PAFG 231234 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 434 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SYNOPSIS
An arctic trough over Kaktovik is digging southeast and will lift to the northeast this afternoon with ridging building behind it.
This is bringing areas of light snow to the Eastern North Slope and Brooks Range and eventually rain and snow showers to the Eastern Interior later today. The ridging afterwards will result in quiet weather for most of Alaska with cooler than normal temperatures. The main concern over the mainland will be morning fog over the next several days.

DISCUSSION

Upper Level and Analysis...
A closed 525 decameter low centered nearly over Kaktovik. A building 545 decameter ridge over the West Coast and Western Interior with weakening 526 decameter low in the northern Bering Sea. There is a weak 537 decameter low in the northeast Gulf of Alaska. There is some light snow over the Eastern Brooks Range and Eastern North Slope, showers over the West Coast and clouds over the Interior with areas of fog developing this morning.

Model Discussion...
Overall quiet weather has lead to good model agreement with no siginifcant weather features expected for the next several days.
For the near term, the NAMnest and NAM12km are favored.

Central and Eastern Interior...
As an arctic front moves southeast over the Eastern Interior, scattered rain and snow showers are expected today from Fort Yukon south with more widespread showers along the AlCan border. Showers diminish in coverage tomorrow with mainly isolated activity over the higher terrain in the Eastern Interior. Fog will be around the Interior valleys for the next several mornings and will be locally dense where clear skies prevail. Cool and crisp mornings with partly cloudy afternoons gradually warming to the 40s will be the name of the game for most spots away from the terrain as quiet weather persists under the ridge.

West Coast and Western Interior...
High pressure aloft will continue to build overhead with isolated rain showers expected along the coast. These showers persist through early next week with areas of morning fog developing in the valleys for the next several mornings. Otherwise, quiet weather persists through at least the middle of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Northwest to westerly flow persists with areas of light snow and snow showers expected mainly southeast of Utqiagvik with the greatest risk being Atigun Pass east today. Additional snow accumulation around an inch or less expected southeast of Umiat.
Snow showers will become isolated tomorrow with a ridge building overhead.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

HYDROLOGY
No concerns.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...None.

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