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FXUS61 KCAR 191700 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 100 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure begins to move east of the region today. An occluded front approaches tonight, crosses the region Saturday, then exits across the Maritimes Sunday. A cold front crosses the region Sunday night into Monday. High pressure then builds across the region later Monday into Tuesday. Low pressure approaches from the west Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Update...
Surface/upper level ridging begin to move east of the region today, with an occluded front approaching western New England late. An area of clouds will slowly move east across the forecast area in advance of the occlusion this afternoon. Across western portions of the forecast area, expect increasing clouds this afternoon. Across eastern areas, expect a mostly/partly sunny afternoon. High temperatures will range from the upper 50s to around 60 across much of the region. However, increasing onshore winds from the Gulf of Maine will keep cooler temperatures along the Downeast coast where high temperatures will generally range from the lower to mid 50s. Have updated to adjust for current conditions along with expected afternoon temperatures and clouds.

Previous Discussion...
As the front enters the area tonight, little precip is expected as the initial shortwave energy will be well north of the forecast area. However, a second shortwave rotating around the base of the large scale upper trough in the Great Lakes region will reinvigorate the front. Recent guidance has gained much more consensus on the rapid development in a fairly narrow axis from southern Penobscot County towards southern Aroostook County. In this corridor, mid-lvl thermal packing quickly increases late tonight with enhancements to lift and QPF. Still not expecting more than a tenth or two of one inch of rainfall by early Saturday morning.

Cloud cover and warm advection will limit lows tonight to the lower 40s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A weak cold front crosses the region on Saturday. QPF models have increased rainfall amounts since the last model run with accumulations nearing 0.5 inches across Downeast Saturday morning. SW flow is expected to increase, especially in the north due to the tightening pressure gradients near the occlusion. Expect temps in the low 50s. By Saturday night, the front will exit over the waters with a weak trof behind the front assisting in some convective development in the south. All rain showers should end after midnight with upper level ridging moving in. Clouds should begin to clear later in the night, dropping temps towards freezing.

By Sunday, another cold front approaches with shortwave energy ahead of the front. Though weak, showers are expected across the north, with possible snow showers in the North Woods in the morning. Temps should be above normal in the 50s. By Sunday night, the cold front will push through the region by late night. The 925mb model temps show cold air advecting into the region after midnight, thus a steady decrease through the night.
Due to the decreasing temps, any showers in the north should switch to snow.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As the cold front exits over the waters on Monday, high pressure should move in. Cold air from the front should keep temps below normal. Though cloud cover should decrease to make for sunny skies during the day, breezy W winds will mix the cold air down keeping the north in the mid 30s and south in the mid 40s. The next system is expected to move into the area by Wednesday.
Models are still inconsistent with the track and timing of the system. The Canadian has the system much further north, while GFS and Euro have the center of the system moving over the state. Nevertheless, the models due agree on a tight temp gradient moving through the region by Wednesday night through Thursday, which will switch rain over to snow through the Central Highlands and north. Snow is possible further south as surface temps could fall to freezing. By next weekend, high pressure should return.

AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected this afternoon through early tonight. MVFR conditions with scattered showers or rain are then expected later tonight. Tempo IFR ceilings are possible by early Saturday morning. LLWS is expected after midnight with southwesterly winds up to 45 kt at FL020.

SHORT TERM: Saturday...MVFR possible in showers. LLWS possible.
S winds 5-15 kts.

Saturday night...VFR. W winds around 5 kts.

Sunday...VFR south, MVFR north in rain showers. WSW winds 5-15 kts.

Sunday night-Monday...VFR, except chance MVFR SHSN Sunday night north. NW wind gusts may approach 30 to 35 kt on Monday.

Monday night-Tuesday...VFR.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels this afternoon through tonight. Scattered showers later tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels until briefly on Sunday night, with increased winds. Winds should decrease again Monday morning, then increase Monday afternoon.
Winds return to SCA Tuesday afternoon, then decrease for the night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

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