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PKZ803 Kwikpak Pass To Cape Stephens Out To 15 Nm- 243 Pm Akst Mon Nov 27 2023
.brisk wind advisory in effect through late this afternoon...
Tonight..S winds 15 kt.
Tue..E winds 15 kt.
Tue night..S winds 10 kt.
Wed..SE winds 15 kt.
Wed night..E winds 15 kt.
Thu..NE winds 20 kt.
Thu night..E winds 15 kt.
Fri..NE winds 15 kt.
Sat..E winds 10 kt.

PKZ800
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 272334 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 234 PM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

SYNOPSIS

Elevated water levels of 2 to 3 feet above normal high tide remain expected into Tuesday along the West Coast. Moderate to potentially heavy snowfall is expected in the West Interior Tuesday late morning to evening. Very strong southerly winds, gusting 60 to 80 mph, within and immediately north of the Alaska Range are possible Tuesday afternoon to late Tuesday night. Blowing snow may occur on the Parks Highway within the Alaska Range Tuesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures returning to near-normal remain expected starting Saturday night and Sunday daytime.

DISCUSSION

Upper levels, analysis and model discussion...

A closed low set up over the north-central Bering Sea this morning and remains around 972 mb this afternoon. Models have continued to struggle with the placement of a shortwave currently over Unalaska as it lifts northward tonight over Bristol Bay and enters the Alaskan Peninsula tomorrow morning. There was a notable shift eastward in the overnight 06Z and 12Z deterministic guidance in the main band of possible heavy snowfall for the West Interior. This trend was reversed somewhat with the 18Z guidance as the main band shifted slight back further westward. This ongoing trend keeps high uncertainty in the actual placement of the main band of heavy snowfall, but moderate confidence in moderate snowfall within the Winter Storm Watches. Models have trended even further up in expected wind speeds for Tuesday afternoon and overnight along the and immediately north of the Alaska Range. Gap winds of 70 to 80 mph are entirely possible Tuesday afternoon to early overnight.

Central and Eastern Interior...

A cold front moving northward this afternoon and tonight brings very light snowfall to the area. The more impactful time period is likely to be Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night over and north of the Alaska Range when a shortwave passing from south to north over the West Interior increases the pressure gradient along the Range.
Southerly gap winds are enhanced as a low-level jet will already be in place from 50-60 knots per high res model guidance. The western AK Range and northward High Wind Watch remains in effect, with an expansion now into the the eastern Range and encompassing Delta Junction. While winds in Delta Junction and immediate surrounding areas likely will not reach Warning criteria, there is still fair confidence for the Watch with a possible upgrade to an Advisory down the road. Gap winds between Isabella Pass and north to Fort Greely could gust to 80 mph tomorrow night. The strongest winds are expected from early Tuesday evening to early Tuesday night. As the shortwave lifts into the western Arctic by Wednesday morning, winds drop off fairly quickly into mid-day so the Watch currently ends in the eastern zones at 6 AM Wed. Blowing snow may occur along the Parks Highway between Summit and Denali Airports Tuesday evening, which could drop visibility down to 1 mile from downstream snow being blown in from the west, even if winds are only 25 to 35 mph along the Highway. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for these blowing snow conditions. Temperatures five to ten degrees above normal persist into mid- week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

A front lifting northward this afternoon is located from Kotzebue Sound to the central Alaska Range and bringing scattered light rain/snow mix to the immediate coastline of the West Coast and snow to the West Interior. A few locations in the West Interior may see a quick inch or two of snowfall tonight into Tuesday morning, but impactful snowfall is not expected for the next 18 hours. A quick moving shortwave lifts northward from the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday early morning. This will be a time when a quick 3 to 6 inches, locally up to 7 inches, may fall for the Lower Kuskowim Valley, including west of McGrath, and the central and lower Yukon River valleys throughout the West Interior. Winter Storm Watches remain in effect for the Lower/Central Yukon River zones and was expanded into the Kuskowin Valley zone, including McGrath, for that potential of moderate to locally heavy snowfall by Tuesday night. Winds also quickly increase and may gust to 45 mph in McGrath, to create blowing snow and limited visibility concerns. Strong winds are also possible in the southwestern Alaska Range Tuesday late morning to Tuesday night, with a High Wind Watch remaining in effect.

Ongoing strong southerly winds 25 to 35 knots are expected to continue to build water levels against the southwest Seward Peninsula Coast, Bering Strait Coastlines, the south side of St Lawrence Island and possibly the Yukon Delta. Ensemble guidance still shows the most likely elevated water levels from 2 to 3 feet lasting into Tuesday. Those water levels through Tuesday afternoon recede Tuesday night and return to near-normal by Wednesday evening.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

Ongoing freezing fog along the eastern half of the Arctic Ocean tapers this evening as onshore to shore parallel flow veers offshore across the entire Coast tonight. The next few days will feature multiple chances of light snowfall. The incoming cold front from the south first brings very light snowfall to the central and western North Slope region tonight. South to southwest flow continues into tomorrow ahead of an advancing shortwave through the West Interior.
The western Brooks Range and northwest Arctic Coast may see a few inches of snowfall late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
As a low deepens over the West Interior Thursday morning, another weak shortwave rotates through the mean easterly trough rotates northwestward and could bring another chance of very light snow.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...

Still warm, southerly air advects into the Interior Thursday PM and Friday. This will lead to temperatures remaining 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Easterly off-shore flow over the West Coast leads to drier conditions, except the Yukon Delta where a low pressure over the southeast Bering keeps shore-parallel moisture in the southwest coastlines. Colder air slides into the Interior Saturday night from east to west and then spreads at or slightly below normal temperatures areawide into early next week. Expect at or below zero temperatures beginning Saturday night and carrying forward.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ829.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ830-852.
High Wind Watch for AKZ837-849.
High Wind Watch for AKZ847-851.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-805-852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-850-856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.

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Kawanak Pass entrance
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Tue -- 01:17 AM AKST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:03 AM AKST     1.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:54 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:01 PM AKST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:36 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:41 PM AKST     2.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kawanak Pass entrance, Yukon River, Alaska, Tide feet

Kwikluak Pass
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Tue -- 01:28 AM AKST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:24 AM AKST     1.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:52 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:12 PM AKST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:42 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:02 PM AKST     1.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kwikluak Pass, Yukon River, Alaska, Tide feet

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