Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kotlik, AK

FXAK69 PAFG 102145 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 145 PM AKDT Thu Oct 10 2024


SYNOPSIS

The light snow that moved across parts of the interior yesterday has since come to an end. However there are still a few light snow showers ongoing along the Chukchi Sea and Bering Straight coastlines this afternoon. Meanwhile strong northerly flow will develop over the Bering Strait and Saint Lawrence Island Friday and continue into the weekend along with the potential for heavier snow showers throughout that corridor. In addition a strong low will push northward over the Interior this weekend bringing accumulating snow from the central Interior to the Brooks Range and eventually the eastern North Slope. Heavy snow accumulation is possible for the Dalton Highway from Atigun Pass to Prudhoe Bay east through Kaktovik. Gusty Northeasterly winds will also develop over the higher terrain of the Interior Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION
Upper Level Analysis...

While the entire state of Alaska remains under the influence of a long wave trough, the primary feature on this afternoons analysis is a deepening upper low tracking eastward across the southern Bering Sea in route to a position in the north central Gulf of Alaska by this weekend. This low upper low will eventually bottom out at with a depth of about 504 dam before eventually starting to fill late in the weekend. As this primary closed low begins to weaken, an impressive shortwave trough will get ejected northward from the low center and will track over the Interior Saturday and eventually form another potent 516 closed upper low over the eastern Beaufort Sea by Sunday evening. This feature will begin to depart early next week but will be followed by another wave of upper energy dropping south and east through northern Alaska, thus keeping the region under the long wave trough pattern for several days to come.

Central and Eastern Interior...

Generally quiet weather with seasonable temperatures will prevail over the next two days as southerly flow aloft develops behind the departing shortwave trough that brought us the first accumulating snowfall of the season. Gusty Northeast winds will develop over higher terrain of the Northern Interior on Friday and Saturday as well as a decent Tanana Valley Jet near Delta Junction. Gusty south winds will develop in the E Alaska Range as well. Low pressure will develop over the Central Interior with precip beginning Saturday evening into Sunday. Several inches of snow will be possible with this second system. Most of the snow will be north of Fairbanks, but there is still a chance for a rain/snow mix for Fairbanks Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...

As the strong Bering Sea low continues to move to a final position in the northern Gulf of Alaska, strong northerly winds will gust up to 55 mph across St Lawrence Island, the Bering Strait and the YK Delta Coast. There will be elevated water offshore and high wave heights but not expecting coastal flooding due to the northerly wind direction. There will be occasional snow squalls producing low visibility. Winds will gradually weaken during the day Sunday as the storm weakens in the Gulf of Alaska.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

A shortwave trough and cold northwest flow off the Arctic rotating into Utqiagvik will bring scattered snow showers to that region through Friday with little to no snow accumulation expected.
Meanwhile a much more potent shortwave trough will lift northeastward across the Brooks Range over the weekend setting the stage for more impactful weather conditions, especially for the central and eastern Brooks range and areas along the North Slope east of Utqiagvik.

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for heavy snowfall expected this weekend across portions of the E Brooks Range and Eastern North Slope. The upper shortwave will form into a closed upper low over the eastern Beaufort Sea with a surface low developing along the AK/YT border. Strong northerly flow developing on the west side of this low will push abundant moisture from a still unfrozen ocean surface and eventually colder air onshore and up the higher terrain of the Brooks Range. 24-48 hours of continuous snowfall for Atigun Pass on the Dalton and nearby areas will likely yield over a foot of snowfall. Combined with windy conditions, visibility will be significantly reduced at times.

Closer to shore from Prudhoe Bay to Kaktovik, heavy snow is expected there as well. Strong northerly flow developing on the backside of the system may bring gusts upwards of 40 mph which will reduce visibility, possibly significantly at times.

Snow will gradually taper downwards early in the week, but a lingering upper-level trough and very cold air flowing off the Arctic will promote light snow showers through at least the first half of the week.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...

The extended period will feature yet another trough dropping out of the Chukchi Sea and crossing much of the state, which in turn will continue accumulating snow chances into early next week, including portions of the Central Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...

None.
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