Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kotlik, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Cooler temperatures remain through the end of the week with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s for most areas.

- Scattered snow showers may continue to linger across the Central Interior and higher elevations across the Eastern Interior today. Little to no accumulation is expected.

- An E-W oriented front sets up, from Eilson to Nome, by Wednesday afternoon. This will bring another round of widespread rain/snow showers across the Interior. Precipitation types will be dynamically driven with a rain/snow mix during the day, mostly rain at lower elevations, and mostly snow during the overnight hours.
- Total snowfall accumulations through the end of the week from this front are expected to be between 1" and 3".

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Breezy northeasterly winds will continue throughout the day today, with the strongest winds from the Bering Strait to St.
Lawrence Island. Gusts are expected to be between 25 and 35 mph.

- Another round of precipitation approaches the West Coast today bringing periods of light rain, snow, and mixed precipitation to portions of the West Coast and Western Interior through the end of the week. Precipitation will be most consistent for areas south of the Bering Strait along the West Coast and south of Huslia across the Western Interior.
- Precipitation will be mostly snow today and become more diurnally driven by Wednesday afternoon with a rain/snow mix during the day, mostly rain at lower elevations, and mostly snow during the overnight hours.

- Temperatures cool throughout the week with highs in the 20s and overnight lows in the teens to single digits above zero.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Scattered snow showers linger across the Brooks Range into next week, especially along southern facing slopes. Travel through Anaktuvuk Pass or Atigun Pass may be slightly impacted by light snowfall and breezy northerly winds.

- Periods of gusty winds return to the northwest Arctic Coast today through the end of the week. Gusts as high as 45 mph possible between Point Hope and Point Lay. Periods of blowing snow may reduce visibility and make travel difficult. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.

- Temperatures continue to rapidly cool and are expected to remain cool through the end of the week. Highs fall to the single digits above zero while overnight lows reach as cold as the teens below zero.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
For Tuesday through Friday.
Little to no change has been made to the overall forecast as persistence continues to hold strong. Satellite images from this morning shows a low, previously in the northern Gulf of Alaska, weakening and shifting SE down the Alaska Panhandle. Over the Bering, a ridge continues to build. behind this ridge is a defined front that is expected to move over the state by the start of the afternoon. With the building ridge in the Bering, this has allowed for quieter weather over the West Coast, however some low clouds and scattered patches of fog continue to linger from the previous system. Over the Arctic, a distinctive trough is beginning to push farther south toward the northern Arctic Coast, providing most of the north slope with a shallow cloud deck, scattered snow showers, and patchy fog.

The short term portion of the forecast will be largely driven by the front in the Bering and the trough digging south over the Arctic. Depending on how fast the trough is able to move south, will determine how far north the front will be able to push before stalling. Latest guidance shows the front's associated shortwave moving W/NW over the YK-Delta by this afternoon. While over the Bering, an E-W oriented 522 decameter low sets up over the North Slope. As the front moves over the YK-Delta, the front will get stretch zonally across the central portion of the state and stalling along a line from the southern Yukon Flats to the southern Seward Peninsula. Most of the precipitation with this system will start off as snow. However, the associated shortwave moving across the state will result in westerly/southwesterly flow aloft. This will allow for slightly warmer temperatures to move in from the tropics. By the time Wednesday rolls around, precipitation types will become diurnally driven with a rain/snow mix during the day, mostly rain at lower elevations, and mostly snow during the overnight hours. Precipitation chances will be widespread across most of the southern half of the state by Wednesday and lasting through the end of the week.

A surface low will be slowing pushing east behind this front as it sets up across the central portion of the state. Meanwhile, a surface high will already have been set up in the northern Chukchi. This will allow for the gradient to tighten as the low moves toward the YK-Delta, resulting in gusty NE winds across a majority of the West Coast. The strongest winds are expected over the NW Arctic Coast, with slightly weaker winds through the Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island. Winds will begin to peak by this evening, allowing for blowing snow potential to return over the Lisburne Peninsula. With the Arctic Trough moving over the North Slope, this will allow for temperatures to remain on the cooler side, allowing for better chances for blowing snow.

The short term portion of the forecast comes to an end with the surface low continuing to progress inland over the YK-Delta. This will set up the, all to familiar, "troughiness" pattern across a good portion of the state. A more pronounce upper level trough will also begin to move south from the Arctic, which may continue to support the troughiness pattern and colder temperatures to continue to the start of the weekend.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For late Friday through next Tuesday.
Compared to yesterday's discussion, a decent bit of model disagreement creeps in early in the extended forecast period. All of the global models show a pronounced trough to form over the state, with a ridge building over the Bering by the start of the weekend. They also show the potential for another upper level low to move north from the western Aleutians by the mid weekend.
Beyond this, model agreement begins to decline.

The GFS and Canadian are in agreement in showing a ridge becoming more pronounced and extending farther north into the Chukchi. This would push the upper level trough, that was previously over the Arctic Plains, east of the Al-Can boarder. Meanwhile, the ECMWF does not have this strong more pronounced ridge building in and having the low from the western Aleutians moving over Bristol Bay. It also shows an additional shortwave working its way south along the West Coast and getting wrapped into this low as it continues to shift east. The GFS and Canadian show a system moving along a similar trajectory, although this is from a shortwave that gets wrapped into the broad trough, over the state, from the low over the western Aleutians. The EC solution shows a more widespread area of precipitation across the state as it pushes east, compared to the GFS and the Canadian. By the time the end of the weekend rolls around, all of the models are showing northerly flow setting up over the West Coast. This will have to continue to be watched as this may bring another round of seasonably colder temperatures back across the state by the mid-week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-856>858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.