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PKZ851 Southwest Of Saint Lawrence Island From 15 To 100 Nm- 259 Pm Akdt Mon Oct 2 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through early Tuesday morning...
Tonight..W winds 25 kt becoming N 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Tue..E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue night..E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed..E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed night..E winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Thu..NE winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
Thu night..N winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
Fri..N winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
Sat..N winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

PKZ800
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 022251 AAA AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 251 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

SYNOPSIS

Snow is continuing for the Eastern Interior and expected to last through Tuesday morning. Strong winds could reduce visibility near Delta Junction and south along the Richardson Highway. While snow has mostly ended for Fairbanks, expect a returning chance for later Tuesday morning as a trough moves from the west coast tonight and quickly into the interior Tuesday morning. Snow showers will prevail through at least midweek for western North Slope.

DISCUSSION

Upper Levels and Analysis...

A high amplitude trough is digging across the center of Alaska stretching into the western Gulf of Alaska. At the base of the trough is a central surface low over the northern Gulf of Alaska. Embedded shortwaves continue to press north across the eastern interior of the state and along the AlCan border. A slot of clearing is notable with subsidence behind the trough. A upper level zonal jet is approaching the Seward Peninsula and will continue toward Norton Sound as the next, vigorous wave looks to dip across Alaska.

Central and Eastern Interior...

Snowfall is continuing south and east of Fairbanks. The forecast remains on track for significant snowfall and strong winds that could reduce visibility for the Eastern Alaska Range, including the Richardson Highway through Isabel Pass. Snowfall rates will gradually ease this afternoon and taper off overnight. Westerly winds along see an added surge with pressure rises following the trough along the Alaska Highway.

Some clearing was observed in the central interior this morning, but the window of clearing will narrow as the next trough quickly presses into the interior from the Seward Peninsula. Expect another wave of cool air and snow to begin Tuesday morning for the central interior and Fairbanks. While the synoptic setup is in reasonably good agreement, the details on how much the snow will hang around as the trough continues into the eastern interior is less certain. The southward extent of the base of this trough could play a role in totals. There is moderate confidence in the snowfall forecast overall, but lower confidence with snowfall amounts for areas around Delta Junction, south and east.

West Coast and Western Interior...

Widely scattered showers are moving into the west coast near the Seward Peninsula late this morning and is expected to continue into tonight. The trough will carry precipitation inland around midnight through Tuesday morning. Westerly winds could increase during the day today, but should diminish Tuesday and shift easterly. Precipitation will gradually decrease for Tuesday, but a few showers could linger in Kotzebue Sound into Wednesday morning.

Surface high pressure building across the interior midweek with low pressure systems in the North Pacific and Bering Seas will help to substantially ramp up winds out of the northeast for Wednesday through at least Thursday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

Upslope flow along the Brooks Range will continue to bring snow from the Dalton Highway east with higher amounts closer to the Range. Zonal flow will prevail in the short term that would keep snow showers streaming into the western portions of the North Slope through midweek. Probabilities will be highest during the daytime each day as embedded troughs continue to sweep through North Slope. Winds will range 10 to 20 mph with a more widespread increase Wednesday night, 15 to 25 mph, into Thursday morning.
Temperatures near the coast will be around freezing during the day and the upper 20s overnight. Further inland, closer to the Brooks Range, span from the single digits to the teens at night and teens and 20s during the day.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...

Cold air appears to remain in place through the extended period.
The arctic low moves more east as a ridge builds over the interior to the northern Bering. Low pressure over near the Alaska Peninsula will lift a front into the central and eastern interior for this weekend. More snowfall will be likely as this front stalls, but there is low confidence in the locations and amounts at this time. This will depend upon the placement of the low near the Alaska Peninsula and the blocking hold the high pressure has over the Bering Strait and Western Interior Alaska on any northward progression. By the end of next weekend into next week, models are hinting at some degree of phrasing of the Alaska Peninsula low, forming a new low that closes off and migrates southwestward across the state.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Northeasterly winds will develop for the later half of the week.
Winds through the Bering Strait could raise surf along St Lawrence Island and northern facing coastlines of the Seward Peninsula and Yukon Delta.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ849.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ850.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.

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Moghoweyik River entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:21 AM AKDT     1.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:57 AM AKDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:38 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:26 PM AKDT     1.72 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:55 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:36 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:48 PM AKDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:52 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Moghoweyik River entrance, St. Lawrence Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Niyrakpak Lagoon entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:14 AM AKDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:15 AM AKDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:37 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 03:56 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:19 PM AKDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:32 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:50 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:06 PM AKDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Niyrakpak Lagoon entrance, St. Lawrence Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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