Wednesday, August12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Michael, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 10:08PM Wednesday August 12, 2020 4:30 PM AKDT (00:30 UTC) Moonrise 10:40PMMoonset 4:42PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ200 Norton Sound- 404 Pm Akdt Wed Aug 12 2020
Tonight..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
Thu..NW winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. Fog.
Thu night..NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
Fri..NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
Fri night..NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
Sat..NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
Sat night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot.
Mon..E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
PKZ200 Norton Sound- 404 Pm Akdt Wed Aug 12 2020
Tonight..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
Thu..NW winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. Fog.
Thu night..NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
Fri..NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
Fri night..NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
Sat..NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
Sat night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot.
Mon..E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Michael, AK
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location: 63.62, -162     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK69 PAFG 122224 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 224 PM AKDT Wed Aug 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected in the Eastern Interior this afternoon as a weak upper level low near Circle weakens in place. Some stratus is hanging around in Norton Sound, but otherwise mostly clear skies in the Western Interior and West Coast. A cold front will traverse west to east across the Arctic Coast bringing low stratus especially from Utqiagvik west. Moving into the end of the week and weekend, a building ridge will lead to sunny, warmer, and drier weather throughout most of Northern Alaska.

DISCUSSION.

Upper Levels and Analysis . 12z models initialize well with the major feature being a longwave trough over all of mainland Alaska anchored by a 5540 meter height closed low centered over Skwentna. Additional closed lows are present over the Western Aleutians, NW of Wrangel Island, and over interior British Columbia. Models are now in agreement that the closed low NW of Wrangel Island will retrograde to the north and west, rather than progress eastward nearing the Arctic Coast. This opens the door for a ridge currently over the Western Bering to build over Northern Alaska toward the end of this week and hold in place through the weekend. The highest heights will remain over the Bering Sea and West Coast, with precipitation and isolated thunderstorms still possible over the far SE Interior as the longwave trough and associated thermal trough progress to the east and slowly weaken in place.

The ECMWF and Canadian are stronger than the the NAM and GFS with the ridge over the West Coast, while the GFS and the NAM spread the ridge further north and east. Aside from this difference, models are generally in excellent agreement as we head into a quieter, warmer, and drier pattern. The next disturbance looks to be a strong shortwave moving into the SE Interior on Sunday night and Monday, though models do not yet agree on the strength and position of this feature. The ECMWF has been consistent in its handling of the closed low NW of Wrangel Island, and generally looks like the best solution through the weekend.

Models show similar areal coverage for precipitation, other than the NAM showing widespread light precip over the Bering Sea Thursday through Friday. We will use a blend of the NAM/GFS and ECMWF for precip areal coverage and precip amounts, excluding the NAM precip over the Bering Sea Thursday through Saturday.

At the surface at 15z, models verify well on most features, except that the thermal trough from Ruby to Circle and east is 2 mb deeper than models verify. This may lead to slightly more convection over the Yukon Flats this afternoon than most models indicate due to stronger convergence along this trough, and also because this is the area with the highest moisture levels, while moisture west of Livengood is more limited. Otherwise models show similar solutions through 4pm Thursday. After that time, models differ on location and strength of lows moving north of the Russian coast near Wrangel Island, but over Alaskan waters and NW Alaska all models indicate winds less than 20 knots with the exception of right at Cape Lisburne which has SW winds 25G40 mph today through Friday.

Central and Eastern Interior . Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected today and tomorrow, otherwise expect a warming trend heading into the weekend with mostly clear skies and high temperatures in the 70s. The exception will be the far SE interior where showers and isolated thunderstorms may persist into Friday and showers through the weekend as a thermal trough associated with the longwave trough lingers.

West Coast and Western Interior . Mostly clear skies and warming temperatures through the weekend are expected. Some low stratus may linger in and around Norton Sound through Friday, but expect little in the way of clouds inland with light winds and highs in the 60s and 70s as a ridge over the Bering builds eastward.

North Slope and Brooks Range . Several weather fronts moving east across the North Slope will bring periods of rain to the Arctic Coast the next several days, with periods of warmer conditions in between. Expect pleasant conditions in the Brooks Range with just a chance of rain in the Central and Eastern Brooks Range on Friday with the passage of a surface low from NE to SW.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4 . None

FIRE WEATHER. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tomorrow in the Eastern Interior and Alaska Range, mostly associated with a weak upper level low near Circle that is gradually weakening in place. The West Coast and Western Interior will remain mostly clear. A warming and drying trend will prevail moving into the end of the week and the weekend as a ridge builds from west to east over all of Northern Alaska. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the far SE Interior on Friday, but otherwise expect clear skies with high temperatures in the 70s for much of the Western and Central Interior from Thursday through the weekend. Mins RHs will drop to the 40% range from west to east through the weekend while overnight recovery will remain excellent under mostly clear skies.

HYDROLOGY. Heavy rainfall earlier this week over the Eastern Alaska Range north to Eagle Summit and Coal Creek has creeks and rivers draining this area running high and fast, though flooding is not expected. This water will eventually all come through the Tanana River, which will remain near bankfull near Fairbanks through Thursday. This heavy rain has also caused a sharp rises on most Eastern Interior rivers including the Salcha, Fortymile, Charley, and Goodpaster, but those are also expected to remain below flood stage.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225.



CHRIEST/JB AUG 20


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Michael, AK11 mi34 minN 910.00 miFair57°F46°F67%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAMK

Wind History from AMK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10N9NW11N7N6N4NW4W5W6W7W7W6W7W6W5W4NW4N4N4NE5NE6N7N6N9
1 day agoN9N7N10N7N6NW6NW7NW6W6W7W8W7W6W6W6W5W5NW5W4N7N6N6N6N7
2 days agoW6NE8NE7NE5NE3E3E4CalmS4S4SW4CalmW3W4W5W4W3W3NW5NE3N4N8NE7N8

Tide / Current Tables for St. Michael, Alaska
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St. Michael
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:35 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:54 AM AKDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:40 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:42 PM AKDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:06 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.72.12.52.83.13.23.12.82.52.221.81.71.61.61.61.51.51.31.110.91.1

Tide / Current Tables for North Bay, Stuart Island, Norton Sound, Alaska
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North Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:36 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:32 AM AKDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:44 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:20 PM AKDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:09 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.31.61.92.12.32.32.11.91.71.51.41.31.21.21.11.11.110.90.80.70.70.8

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.