DISCUSSION

Analysis...Aloft at 500 mb, ridging is in place over the West Coast with mostly clear skies and some areas of fog and stratus beneath it. A shortwave trough is working its way eastward across the state and is currently from Howard Pass to Tanana to McGrath.
Numerous showers are present ahead of this feature, and will be further enhanced as the shortwave wraps into a fairly robust vorticity max over the Yukon Flats this afternoon. As this happens, winds aloft will also increase and may mix down into the Yukon Flats and Tanana Valley this afternoon. We have opted to increase gusts to 20 to 25 mph across both of those areas. By late Saturday night the shortwave trough will be east of the Alcan Border with ridging building over the central Interior. Out west, a frontal system will arrive at the coast late this morning bringing wind and rain. This will be followed by southwest flow aloft which will push the front into the Interior, bringing rain showers to most areas by Sunday. Another frontal system will arrive at the west coast on Monday and push inland early next week.

Models are in overall good agreement on the pattern but differ on precipitation. We will take a similar approach to last night to deal with this by not using the NAM, which continues to be the outlier in the Interior. We'll use a blend of the SREF and NBM for precipitation and the only notable change will be the increase in wind gusts today across the Yukon Flats and Tanana Valley and across the Tanana Valley tomorrow with the next frontal system.

Central and Eastern Interior...Showers today will diminish from west to east before increasing from the west Sunday morning with the arrival of the next frontal system. Forecast precipitable water values will be above the 90th percentile for Saturday and Sunday, so showers could be briefly heavy. Most areas can expect 0.1-0.3" of rainfall through Sunday, except areas from Tok east along the Alaska Highway will be drier. Monday will feature isolated to scattered showers. With the cooldown from yesterday, temperatures will be fairly steady and near normal with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s through Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...A frontal system will arrive at the coast today bringing rain, wind, and elevated water levels.
The front will push inland to the Western Interior, bringing rain on Saturday night and Sunday. Sea levels look to rise 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide line on Saturday for areas south of the Bering Strait. Areas north of the Strait can expect water to rise 1 to 2.5 feet above normal high tide. Water levels will remain elevated through Tuesday as another system arrives Monday, though winds appear to be weaker with this system.

North Slope and Brooks Range...A weak cold front moving across the North Slope this morning is bringing light rain with a bit of snow mixed in in some spots. This front will move east of the area by late tonight and a sharp warm up will commence as flow turns southerly. Expect highs mostly in the 50s Sunday through Tuesday.
Areas west of Utqiagvik and the Brooks Range can expect showers tonight through midweek as the remnants of West Coast frontal systems bring moisture. Rainfall amounts are not expected to be heavy.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Another low pressure system will likely impact the West Coast on Monday. This will keep water levels slightly elevated through Tuesday, though water levels look to generally be lower than what is expected from the storm today and tomorrow.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...Overall guidance is in generally good agreement that above normal temperatures are expected early next week across Northern Alaska before cooling back to near normal later in the week. The Interior is expected to begin the work week near normal, but cool to below normal by the end of the week.
Above normal precipitation is also expected for most of Northern Alaska. The general troughing pattern will continue with an increase in shower activity likely in the Interior from Monday through the middle of next week.

HYDROLOGY
A front moving to the West Coast and Western Interior this weekend will produce a quarter of an inch to half an inch of rainfall from the Bering Strait south to the Y-K Delta.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-810.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-853-856-857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809-855.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-851-854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.