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PKZ804 Cape Stephens To Moses Point Out To 15 Nm- 134 Pm Akst Thu Dec 7 2023
Tonight..S winds 5 kt becoming e. Freezing fog.
Fri..E winds 10 kt.
Fri night..NE winds 15 kt.
Sat..N winds 15 kt.
Sat night..N winds 15 kt.
Sun..N winds 15 kt.
Sun night..N winds 20 kt.
Mon..N winds 25 kt.
Tue..N winds 35 kt.

PKZ800
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 072342 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 242 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS

Our active pattern continues, particularly for the West Coast with continuing rounds of high winds and heavy snow persisting, leading to winter weather impacts. Slightly more settled over the Interior with chances for light snow. Still more quiet along the North Slope with passing flurries. Should become colder again into the weekend for much of the area.

DISCUSSION

Upper Levels...

Good agreement aloft with a 490 decameter low over the Bering Strait matching up fairly well with observations and satellite showing this strong 500mb low continuing its push across the northern Bering Sea, with an attending secondary weaker low devloping over the Yukon Delta and across towards the Cook Inlet.
The dominating low over the northern Bering Sea has persisted in strength today with continuing rounds of strong snow showers and winds. There is good upper pattern agreement through Saturday amongst models for this low to spin and progress across the YK Delta and southern portions of the Western Interior into Saturday.
Beyond that, there is okay agreement for large scale troughing to develop over the Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska into the work week.
WPC cluster analysis mostly agrees with a 500mb low height anomaly digging into this area around Days 4-7 but there is still some decent disagreement for exact placement and shape especially between GEFS and EPS guidance.

At the Surface....

The prominent feature continues to be a 980mb low pressure over the northern Bering Sea which continues to move southeast into the YK Delta tonight, with several attending fronts and local shortwaves that have helped to further areas of snow and strong winds across the West Coast and into the Western Interior. The remnants of a low spinning out in the northeast Gulf of Alaska continue to throw some small areas of clouds and light snow along the Canadian Border moving east.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong low pressure system continues to progress across the northern Bering Sea this afternoon and will push southeast over the YK Delta overnight, bringing continued winter weather conditions to portions of the West Coast. A tight pressure gradient around the center of the low center has led to strong easterly winds over the Seward Peninsula and equally strong northerly winds on the other side of the Bering Strait with scatterometer winds showing gale force winds coming across St.
Lawerence Island into the YK Delta. This will lead to blowing snow and very low visibilities and we have upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for the Yukon Delta.

As the low pushes southeast a tight pressure gradient will persist on the backside. This will lead to strong winds shooting down the Bering Strait and into St. Lawerence Island. These winds of 35 to 45 mph, with gusts over 50 mph are expected to linger into the weekend. This will also lead to a strong convergence zone creating a single band ocean-effect type snowband impacted Little Diomede and St. Lawerence Islands. This will likely be a healthy snow band with ocean-induced CAPE of 300-400 J/kg and a moist model sounding through and beyond the DGZ. These conditions should persist at least through Friday. Strong winds and high waves could also lead to freezing spray causing ice accumulations along portions of St.
Lawerence and Diomede islands. Elsewhere, expect on and off squally activity to continue with cold air advection over the Bering Sea with mostly open waters. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for portions of the West Coast and St. Lawerence Island.
Elsehwere across the Western Interior, light on and off snow showers are possible, with much colder air infiltrating behind the low pressure system into the weekend. Expect temperatures 10-20 degrees colder this weekend than they are today.

Central and Eastern Interior...

Partially clear skies this afternoon will persist a little this evening before the edge of the Bering Sea's low pressure system starts to influence the area's weather overnight into Friday. This should bring another period of clouds, flurries, and light snow across much of the area tomorrow. Mostly an inch or less is expected for additional accumulations. Behind this, expect stout cold air advection and a drop in temperatures into the weekend with highs below zero. Ensemble 850 temperature anomalies show 850 temps 5 to 10 degrees below normal at least through the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

Pretty quiet conditions continue for the North Slope. Could see some flurries and low ceilings return once again as a weak front aloft moves over and some light snow Friday and Saturday remains possible for the Brooks Range with a couple inches possible.
Colder temperatures are expected here as well as we go into the weekend behind stout cold air advection. That cold air could stick around this area into next week as an arctic front develops across the Interior thanks to high pressure development in the Eastern Pacific and an active pattern across the Gulf of Alaska.
Ensemble temperatures show 850 anomalies 5 to 15 degrees below normal persisting not only through the weekend but into much of next week, especially along the Brooks Range.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...

Looking into next week, the general pattern is one for extended troughing to develop over the Gulf of Alaska, tying in Pacific moisture blasting up to the state. However, there is a wide spread amongst solutions for the placement, strength, and shape of the low that will form around early to mid week. Exactly what form this takes will determine whether the Alaska Range experiences some Chinook winds and prolongs a dry period for the Central/Eastern Interior or we enter a period of precipitation sooner. There is actually better agreement in the global ensembles at Day 6 and beyond with Gulf of a Alaska troughing becoming more oriented southeast to northwest allowing a wave of disturbances to push in from the AK panhandle and Yukon territory which should bring chances of precipitation Additionally, with persisting cold air advectionand northerly flow over the Chukchi Sea and into the Bering Sea, a band of snowfall may linger through and south of the Bering Strait. Cold temperatures may linger across much of the CWA, with the highest confidence for those along and north of the Brooks Range

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820-821-827.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ825.
Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-807-816-817-850-851-853- 854-856-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Gale Warning for PKZ811.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ850.
Gale Warning for PKZ853.
Gale Warning for PKZ856.
Gale Warning for PKZ857.

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