Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Golovin, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...
-A front that brought additional clouds cover and rain to the southern Interior Monday will dissipate today. Some heavier showers in the upper Tanana Valley this morning, but otherwise only light rain is expected in the southeastern Interior through this afternoon.

-Dry and breezy conditions return Wednesday and Thursday with northeast winds gusting up to 25 mph in the valleys and up to 35 mph over elevated terrain north of Fairbanks.

-Possible showers Thursday night into Friday across the southern Interior. Showers will be light and generally limited to higher terrain and the southeastern Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...
-Showery conditions from the Seward Peninsula south today, then drying and warming expected Wednesday through the end of the week.

-Winds remain offshore and 15 mph or less.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
-Easterly winds persist through the week generally 15 to 20 mph.

-Stronger winds at Point Lay will persist through this afternoon.
Easterly wind gusts up to 30 mph this morning will diminish through the day with some minor blowing and drifting snow this morning.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 987mb low in the Bering Sea is fueling a front that stretches from the Seward Peninsula through the middle Tanana Valley and to the Canadian border. This front produced significantly less rain than initially expected due to an overabundance of dry air along the northern edge of the front. Much of the rain fell as virga and never reached the ground which produced gusty winds from evaporative cooling aloft. The front is weakening this morning and will dissipate by this evening with very little additional rainfall expected. A shortwave moving south along the Alaska Canada border today will promote slightly more robust showers in the southeastern Interior through this evening, but rain accumulations are still expected to be generally light. This shortwave will stall near the border tonight and eventually split off of its parent low in northern Canada becoming a weak surface low in the eastern Interior by Thursday. Light rain showers are possible with this system Thursday through Friday, but expected dry conditions and moderate model disagreement significantly limit confidence of rainfall forecasts.

Another low moves from the north Pacific towards the Alaska Peninsula tonight which will cut off access to warm, moist air for the Bering Sea low causing it to weaken further. A persistent 1025mb high pressure sits in the eastern Arctic and will, combined with the lows to the southwest, promote broad northeasterly flow through Thursday. This northerly flow will keep much of the region clear and dry and allow the slow building of temperature through the weekend. The low moving towards the Alaska Peninsula will reach it by Wednesday afternoon and then move into Bristol Bay by Thursday morning. This will combine with the weakening low in the Bering to produce a large area of low pressure across southern Alaska that will slowly fill in through the end of the week as the Arctic high moves southeast Canada and weak low pressure overtakes the Interior Thursday night into Friday.



FIRE WEATHER
Dry and breezy conditions return following moderation by recent frontal passage. Temperatures and RH remain more mild today due to the weakening front keeping cloud cover and some showers over the southern Interior through this afternoon, but min RHs in areas that saw little precipitation from this front will still be dry with values in the upper 20s to mid 30s expected from Fairbanks north. Gusty northeasterly afternoon winds are expected to return Wednesday with gusts up to 25 mph possible in the valleys and to up to 35 mph possible along ridges and summits. Min RHs fall through Thursday with values in the low to mid 20s Wednesday and the upper teens to low 20s Thursday. High temperatures continue to rise through the weekend with values in the upper 60s to near 70 possible this weekend. Some showers are possible Thursday evening and Friday as weak low pressure sets up in the Interior, but dry conditions at the surface are expected to significantly limit rainfall and keeps wetting rains very unlikely.

HYDROLOGY
Breakup along the Upper Yukon River remains stalled below Fort Yukon since last Tuesday (May 6). The ice is degrading and breaking up locally but in-place ice remains intermittently below the mouth of the Porcupine River down to the confluence with the Tanana River. With water levels remaining low, there isn't much force to push the remaining ice out and it is expected to continue degrading over the next few days. The Yukon River is open from Tanana to Grayling and opening up at Anvik. Below Anvik the river is a mix of open areas and thermally degraded in-place ice.
The River Watch team will be in the air over the lower Yukon starting today and will provide updates daily. On the Koyukuk River, the river ice at Hughes lifted on Friday and is thermally degraded but in-place down to Winthrop Point. Below Winthrop Point the river is a mix of degraded in-place ice on bends alternating with open stretches of water to near the mouth which is open for several miles upstream of the community of Koyukuk.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Broad troughing expected through the extended period, but forecast details are quite uncertain. Models differ greatly on many features within the overall troughing pattern, but there is currently no indication of any potentially hazardous systems. Weak ridging may attempt to build into the pattern but will have difficulty overcoming the more broad trough. Weak low pressure at the surface will support some showers and seasonally normal temperatures. Thunderstorms are possible in this pattern, but likely to be extremely isolated through next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ811.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.