Hughes, AK Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hughes, AK

April 14, 2024 12:07 AM AKDT (08:07 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 9:28 PM
Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hughes, AK
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Area Discussion for - Fairbanks, AK
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FXAK69 PAFG 132214 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 214 PM AKDT Sat Apr 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
Active weather pattern persists across Northern Alaska as a series of storms move east in fast westerly zonal flow. A low pressure system this weekend is expected to bring another round of strong southerly winds, snow, and blowing snow from St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait north to Point Hope Sunday afternoon into Monday. Another system will move out of the southern Bering and to the Y-K Delta Monday.

DISCUSSION
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a 480 dam low in the high Arctic north of Utqiagvik of this afternoon moves towards the North Pole through Tuesday. A 523 dam low in the Gulf of Alaska slides eastward to southeast Alaska and British Columbia through Monday. Weak ridging building northeast out of the North Pacific across the central and eastern Bering Sea to the southwestern Interior slides southeast with the axis stretching from the North Pacific to to Sand Point to Aniak to Ambler Sunday afternoon and then moving east with the axis stretching across the Gulf of Alaska to Fort Greely to Demarcation Point by Monday afternoon. A 537 dam low 150 NM west of Shemya moves northeast across the Bering Sea through Monday and weakens. A shortwave tracks east across eastern Russia and into the Gulf of Anadyr Monday into Tuesday.

At the surface, a 1014 mb high centered over Inuvik moves northeast to Banks Island and strengthens to 1017 mb by Sunday afternoon, as a 985 mb low 350 NM northwest of Wrangel Island lifts north towards the pole through Monday, resulting in broad troughing encompassing much of the offshore Arctic waters through Monday morning. A 1021 mb high over the northeastern Chukotsk Peninsula pushes east to the Seward Peninsula overnight and then inland Sunday. High pressure builds east across the Arctic Plains tonight and Sunday with a 1026 mb high moving to Mackenzie Bay Sunday afternoon continuing east into Canada Monday. A 1001 mb low pushes northeast of the Chukotsk Peninsula Monday morning to be 150 NM northwest of Point Hope and then tracks northeast along the northwest Arctic Coast. A 1034 mb high is centered south of Atka in the North Pacific this afternoon with high pressure extending north across the central and eastern Bering Sea. This high pressure will track southeast through Sunday. A 996 mb low near Amchitka Sunday afternoon lifts northeast through Monday to be centered 75 NM southeast of St Matthew Island at 994 mb low.

Models...
The 13/12Z models initialized well against the 12Z RAOBS and surface obs and are in better agreement with the overall synoptic pattern. Models continue to struggle with the low moving north across the Bering with quite the spread in strength and placement of the feature. The 12Z ECMWF, GFS, and NAM are in fair agreement with the placement of the feature, while the 12Z Canadian keeps the feature further south. The spread in the strength of this low is quite large with the Canadian being the weakest and the NAM the strongest. This translates down to the strength in the surface features. Opted to lean towards a blend towards the ECMWF and Canadian for today’s forecast package as their evolution looks to be the most likely given the synoptic setup. Blended the ECMWF and Canadian for winds and for pops.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A front continues to track eastward across the Eastern Beaufort Sea coast this afternoon, bringing snow to the eastern Brooks Range and Eastern Beaufort Sea coast through tonight. A low moving northeast off the Chukotsk Peninsula will drag a front across the region Sunday into Monday, bringing another round of snow, blowing snow, and gusty winds, especially to the Northwest Arctic Coast and Brooks Range. South to southwest winds increase to 20 to 35 mph Sunday and Monday for the western and northwest Arctic coast with south winds of 20 to 20 mph anticipated Monday for Utqiagvik. These winds combined with falling snow will produce areas of blowing snow, that may reduce visibility to one half mile or less at times. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty in models, so will hold off at this time on issuing any WWA products.
Further east, drier conditions are expected and south to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph will prevail. As southerly flow becomes established temperatures trend upwards, with highs in the teens to 20s above by Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A low pressure system this weekend is expected to bring another round of strong southerly winds, snow, and blowing snow from St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait north to Point Hope Sunday afternoon into Monday. Gusts of 30 to 50 mph are possible, with near blizzard conditions in snow and blowing snow. Snow fall amounts of 2 to 6 inches are possible, with the heaviest amounts in favored upslope area near Kivalina, Point Hope and Red Dog Mine. The strongest winds and lowest visibility are expected in the Bering Strait and near Red Dog and Kivalina from Sunday night into Monday. There is still much uncertainty on this exact storm track, so forecasted conditions could change. Another low moving across the Bering Monday will bring yet another round of strong winds, snow and a rain snow mix from the Bering Strait south Monday afternoon and Monday night.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Not a lot going on across the Central and Eastern Interior over the next several days. A shortwave moving east across the Interior this afternoon and tonight, combined with a front moving over the northern Interior will support snow isolated to scattered snow showers through early Sunday. A front moving out of eastern Russia may clip the northern half of the Interior Sunday night into early Monday morning with most snow remaining north of Beaver. Snow accumulations tonight through Monday generally two inches or less. West to southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph prevail for much of the Interior through Sunday, with winds of 15 to 25 mph expected over the Interior summits. Winds diminish Sunday night. Southerly gap flow develops late Monday in the Alaska Range.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...An Arctic low remains in place in the high Arctic next week while an upper level ridge axis becomes situated over the Eastern Interior and the Yukon. Over the Bering an upper level low will dive south south of the Aleutians by Wednesday before moving east towards the Gulf of Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-817-851-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-813.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.




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