Wednesday, August21, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Hughes, AK

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Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 9:53PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 8:03 AM AKDT (16:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:14PMMoonset 12:24PM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hughes, AK
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location: 66.69, -153.99     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak69 pafg 211355
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
555 am akdt Wed aug 21 2019

A vertically stacked low near eagle summit will move east to near
eagle by 4pm today, and then move east tonight. This is causing
moderate precipitation over the eastern interior with heavy
precipitation directly under the low aloft. This feature dropped
snow over higher elevations of the eastern brooks range and over
the highest parts of the white mountains. Expect .10 inch of
precip over the interior north and east of fairbanks today, with

25- 50 inch of liquid in the area between chena hot springs to ft
yukon to old crow to eagle to chena hot springs today. With snow
level near 3000 ft, expect another 2 inches of snow above 3000 ft
and will continue the snow advisory for the steese highway at
eagle and twelvemile summits, and mention 1-2 inches for the
taylor highway summits above 3000 ft north of chicken today. Will
also see much cooler temperatures today over the interior north
and east of fairbanks. Rain will diminish to scattered showers in
from fairbanks west by late morning, and to isolated showers this

After today, expect isolated to scattered showers and below
normal temperatures over the interior through the weekend, while
the coasts remain near normal for temperatures with periods of
showers and high elevation snow.


the long wave pattern consists of a strong ridge over eastern
russia and a deep trough stretching from the pole south over
alaska and western canada. Will see a series of short wave
troughs drop down the west side of this ridge the next several
days causing a slight cooling trend to near normal along the west
coast and north slope, while the interior remains cooler than

A strong low aloft currently near eagle summit will move east to
near eagle by 4pm today, and then move east tonight. This is
causing precipitation over the eastern interior, with heavy
precipitation directly under the low aloft.

A short wave over the northern chukchi sea will move south over
the chukchi sea today and tonight. This will push a weak cold
front south just ahead of the trough. Associated weather will be
addressed in the surface section.

A second short wave trough will move south over the west coast of
alaska Thu and Thu night. This will push a second cold front south
along the coast Thu and Thu night.


a low pressure trough from deadhorse north will persist today,
then move east and weaken tonight. There are light winds, isolated
showers, and fog associated with this over the eastern north

A 1003 mb low near eagle summit under will move to near eagle as
a 1001 mb low by 4pm wed, then move east tonight. As previously
mentioned, this is causing rain across the eastern interior east
of bettles and tanana, with moderate to heavy precip near the low
center. There is snow above 3000 ft with this low. The precip will
taper off to scattered showers from fairbanks north this morning,
and to isolated showers this afternoon and evening behind the low.

A weather front in the northern chukchi sea will move to
utqiagvik to the bering strait by 10 pm wed, and to demarcation
point to the yukon delta by 4pm Thu then weaken in place. This
will bring isolated to scattered showers to the north slope and
west coast with the front Wed night and thu, and to the interior
thu into fri. Will also see north winds 10-15 kt with the front.

A second weather front will move south over the chukchi sea thu,
and move to utqiagvik to the yukon delta by 4am fri, and to
deadhorse to bethel by 4pm fri. This will bring scattered showers
with it to the west coast and north slope on Thu into fri, with
likely rain snow over the north slope with snow above 2000 feet.

It will bring scattered showers to the interior fri.

Will also see n-nw winds 20-25kt along and following the front
along the west coast Thu into fri, and along the western north
slope fri.

Models initialize well aloft at 00z and show similar solutions
through 4pm thu. After that time, the GFS and NAM take more of the
short wave energy south along west coast, while the ecmf and
canadian models push more of the energy east across the beaufort
sea more quickly. Favor the GFS and NAM after 4pm Thu as the long
wave set up over mainland alaska favors these short waves dropping
down into the trough as depicted by the GFS and nam.

With precipitation, the GFS and ecmf verify better than the NAM in
the short term bringing the precip further south over fairbanks.

Favor using a blend of the ecmf and GFS through this evening to
capture the precipitation area and amount over the eastern

After tonight, favor the GFS precip field as it depicts the broad
area of light isolated to scattered showers better than the nam,
while the ecmf pushes precip over the north slope further east on
thu night and Fri following its further east short wave movement.

At the surface at 06z, models verify well. Models show similar
solutions through 4pm thu, then the GFS keep the cold front
approaching NW alaska further west than the ecmf. Will use the gfs
for surface field through fri, but will adjust the GFS to keep a
surface low under the low aloft through this evening as the low
aloft moves east.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...

a 500-600 mile fetch of the chukchi bering seas with N winds
blowing 20-25 kt from late Thu into early Sat will cause elevated
surf at shishmaref and the bering strait Thu pm into Sat am. At
this time we do not expect high surf as high surf normally
requires winds 25kt or greater, but there normally is not a 500+
mile fetch length for several days, so this needs to be watched as
we get closer to thu, fri. From utqiagvik west, expect NW winds
15-20 kt from late Fri through sun. This would cause elevated surf
from utqiagvik from late Fri into sun. Will issue sps about these

Fire weather
Highs are expected to remain in the 50s and lower 60s across the
interior through the weekend. Expect rh to remain above 40%
through the weekend with the exception of rh 30-40% in the
western interior today. Expect increasing winds on Fri in the
western interior but the winds should have moisture and cool
temperatures with them. &&

Although river levels are dropping, expect high levels for the
next few days across the tanana and chena river basins as flooded
areas slowly drain out. This means water levels along the tanana
from fairbanks to north pole will decrease slowly this week.

Flood advisories remain for low lying areas along the tanana river
from the fairbanks to tanana, for the nenana river near the
confluence of the tanana river, and for low lying areas along the
chena river.

Afg watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory for akz220.

Flood advisory for akz221-akz223.

Jb aug 19

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Link to 5 minute data for PAIM

Wind History from AIM (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE6SE6--CalmCalmSW6W6CalmCalmNE5W4NW4W3CalmCalm--------------SE7SE8
1 day agoCalmCalm--CalmE3CalmCalmNE4NE7S4S4CalmCalmCalmS5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4E9E10E10
2 days agoCalmCalm--SE3SE5S7S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3Calm

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.