Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 5:59AM||Sunset 9:41PM||Sunday April 18, 2021 12:55 PM AKDT (20:55 UTC)||Moonrise 12:00AM||Moonset 12:00AM||Illumination 43%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hughes, AKHourly EDIT Help
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FXAK69 PAFG 181448 AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 648 AM AKDT Sun Apr 18 2021
SYNOPSIS. Strong high pressure over Alaska will keep conditions dry and much warmer than normal through Mon for most of Northern Alaska.
A cold front moving east across the North Slope on Mon will bring significant cooling, west winds 15-30 mph and chance of snow to the North Slope Mon. The Eastern North Slope will have snow and blowing snow Mon night through Tue, with near blizzard conditions Mon night through Tue night Kaktovik. This cold front will bring a chance of snow and much cooler temperatures to the Eastern Interior south and east of Fairbanks Tue AM through Tue night.
Conditions will dry out and temperatures begin to rebound on Wed, and then remain dry and much warmer than normal Thu through next weekend for most of Northern Alaska.
Aloft . The long wave pattern consists of a high amplitude ridge over Western Canada and most of Alaska, with a deep trough from Eastern Bering Sea and Western Gulf of Alaska, and another ridge over the Western Pacific and Western Bering. This is causing very warm and dry conditions over Northern Alaska.
A strong short wave near the New Siberian Island of Russia will move east over the Chukchi Sea tonight, and then and dig into the ridge across NE Alaska on Mon and Tue. This will bring a cold front, some snow, and much colder air to the North Slope Mon and Tue, and to the Eastern Interior Mon night Tue.
The second ridge over the Western Bering will build northeast behind the short wave trough, building strongly over the Bering and Western Alaska on Tue, and over Northern Alaska Tue night and Wed, then persist into next weekend. This will bring a return to very warm and dry weather over the West Coast of Alaska Tue, to the Interior and North Slope Wed and Thu, and then remain very warm and dry into next weekend.
Surface . Strong high pressure over Interior Alaska will persist through Mon, then weaken.
A weather front stretching from north of Banks Island to near Wrangel Island to Cape Navarin will weaken in place this afternoon. This is causing SW winds 10-15 kt along the Arctic Coast, and S winds 20-30kt at Cape lisburne. This will will decrease through the day today as the front weaken.
A cold front west of Wrangel Island will move east to the Western Arctic Coast of Alaska by 4am Mon, to Demarcation Point to the Bering Strait by 4pm Mon, to Inuvik to Ft Yukon to Fairbanks to Gambell by 4am Tue, and to Northway to the Yk Delta by 4pm Tue. This will bring significant cooling, west winds 15-30 mph and chance of snow to the North Slope Mon. The Eastern North Slope will have 1/2 inches of snow and blowing snow Mon night through Tue, with near blizzard conditions Mon night through Tue night Kaktovik and in passes. This cold front will bring a chance of snow and much cooler temperatures to the Eastern Interior south and east of Fairbanks Tue AM through Tue night.
A low in the southern Gulf of Alaska will move to near the Alaska Peninsula Mon night. This will cause north winds of 20-30 kt over the Bering Sea on Mon night and Tue.
DISCUSSION. At 00Z, models initialize 10-20 meters too low on h500 heights of strong ridge over Eastern Alaska, but looks good on other features. Models show same pattern through Tue, but the GFS has lower heights with the incoming short wave trough on Mon and Tue than the NAM/ECMF and Canadian Models. Given the ridge over Ern Alaska is stronger than any models initialized, expect slightly higher heights and thus prefer the higher heights shown by the NAM/ECMF and Canadian Mon and Tue. The ECMF and Canadian Models rebuild the ridge over Alaska Wed through next weekend and maintain it more strongly than the GFS. Prefer the ECMF and Canadian solutions aloft for Wed through next weekend.
850 mb temperatures are above freezing for most of Northern Alaska with 4-6C above over the Southern Interior. 850 mb temp will drop to -10C across the North Slope Mon behind the cold front, and to -4C to -10C across the Ern Interior on Tue. These drops of 10C at 850 mb should lead to a drop of 15-20F for high temps at the surface across the North Slope on Mon and across the Ern Interior on Tue.
With precipitation, models show similar pattern through Tue, with slight differences in details. Favor using a blend of models for precip with the following adjustments: Expect a slight chance of rain today over zones 214 and 215 as precip now shown by radar along Bristol Bay Coast moves NW, expect a slight chance of precip to the Wrn North Slope Mon with the cold front, a chance of snow to the Central North Slope Mon, snow likely over the Ern North Slope Mon PM, and Tue AM, and chance of snow over the Ern Interior south and East of Fairbanks Mon night and Tue diminishing Tue night.
At the surface at 06Z, the NAM, ECMF and Canadian all verify about 4 mb too weak on high located over the Yukon Territory, while the GFS verifies well. Models verify well on other surface features. Models all show similar surface patterns by 4am Sun, and show similar pattern through Tue except that the NAM maintains a stronger surface high over the Yukon Territory through Mon which makes sense given the stronger high aloft and at the surface over that area now. The NAM and ECMF bring winds 3-5kt stronger than the GFS to the North Slope mon and Tue, which is preferred given the strong flow aloft low level cold advection.
Bottom line for models, is that we will use blend of the NAM and ECMF for temps, clouds and precip. Will adjust precip to give a slight chance of rain today over zones 214 and 215, a slight chance of precip to the Wrn North Slope Mon, a chance of snow to the Central North Slope Mon and Mon night, snow likely over the Ern North Slope Mon PM-Tue AM, and chance of snow over the Ern Interior south and East of Fairbanks Mon night and Tue, diminishing Tue night. For winds will use Will use the NAM winds through Tue, with 15-20kt over the Wrn North Slope Mon and Tue, 15-25 kt over the Central North Slope Mon and Tue, and 25-35kt over the Ern North Slope Mon night and Tue.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4 . None.
FIRE WEATHER. None. Snow covering all areas.
HYDROLOGY. Snow pack continues to ripen south of the Brooks Range. Will see limited melting through mid-week, with melting increasing late in the week.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ204.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230.
JB APR 21
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