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PKZ855 Kotzebue Sound Greater Than 10 Nm- 237 Pm Akst Sun Dec 3 2023
Tonight..E winds 10 kt.
Mon..E winds 10 kt.
Mon night..W winds 15 kt.
Tue..SW winds 15 kt.
Tue night..SE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow.
Wed..E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow.
Wed night..E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow.
Thu..E winds 15 kt.
Fri..E winds 10 kt.

PKZ800
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 032219 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 119 PM AKST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Quiet weather continues pretty much everywhere with partly clear skies and colder temps in parts of the Interior, light snow showers out west, and some east winds and blowing snow over the NW Arctic. Light snow chances increase for the southern Interior Tuesday night and Wednesday, with a strong arctic front moving into the West Coast Tuesday night through Thursday, bringing snow squalls and gale force winds.

DISCUSSION

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A pair of deep lows are moving across the Gulf of AK and NPAC along a very strong polar Pacific jet stream. There is a 504 dam arctic low centered near Banks Island. There is a 503 dam arctic trough extending along the Bering Strait and YK Delta. A weak ridge is in place aloft over the SE Interior, which is promoting cold inversions in clear skies along with low stratus and fog across the SE Interior and Yukon Flats. The arctic front remains stalled over the SW Alaska region, with light snowfall falling along it from the Bering Strait to the Lower Yukon and down into Bristol Bay.

Model Discussion...
The models are in very good agreement with the large scale synoptic pattern and overall general idea of what will occur, but they are in pretty terrible agreement with a series of cold fronts which will surge inland over the West Coast Tuesday and Wednesday. What is known is a strong cold front from Russia will shift inland, bringing heavy snow squalls and gales to the N Bering Sea, Bering Strait, and West Coast mainly from the Seward Peninsula south. What is not known is timing, exact strength, and overall impacts as these lows will be wrapping up along the front, and will be rather small in nature. For this forecast will favor a blend of the GFS as it has been relatively stable showing gales.
Elsewhere, the NAM nest was favored for winds with a blend of models for precip/snow as several fronts will impact different parts of the Mainland over the next few days.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Stratus has developed over much of the SE Interior and Yukon Flats and is impinging on the White Mtns. Higher clouds are streaming north from the Gulf as well. Temps bottomed out around -12 to -20 F across parts of the Interior this morning. Where it was cloudy, temps only dropped to near zero. Same thing will happen tonight with the coldest temps in sheltered valleys with clearer skies.
However, with extensive high clouds now moving in, it may not get as cold in some areas tonight. Elsewhere, light winds over the Tanana Valley around Delta Junction will increase tonight and into tomorrow 15 to 25 mph. After that, a weak front will move through and switch winds to NW and N through the AK Range passes Monday night and Tuesday.

A weak front from the Gulf will spread snow over the E Alaska Range and SE Interior Monday night through Wednesday, albeit light snow.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Light snow continues along a stalled arctic front stretching from the Lower Yukon to the Bering Strait. This snowfall will shift north into E Norton Sound and then into Kotzebue Sound and the Upper Noatak Valley tonight into Tuesday before the front shifts east and finally weakens.

Attention turns to a series of arctic cold fronts which will surge across the Bering Sea from Siberia and bring increasingly unsettled weather Tuesday. This first low is a rather small and fast moving low and is projected to track from Saint Lawrence Island to the YK Delta, bringing snow squalls and gales as it shifts inland, possibly clipping the Seward Peninsula as well. A stronger front shifts over Saint Lawrence Island Tuesday night and shifts inland on Wednesday, bringing heavy snow squalls and gale force winds from the YK Delta to Saint Lawrence Island to the Bering Strait. Some snow squalls will be accompanied with blowing snow and heavy snow. Snow amounts will be in the range of 2 to 4 inches possible through Wednesday. Snow will continue into Friday with additional accumulations possible.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Stratus and fog is the name of the game, along with some blowing snow over the NW Arctic where east winds are gusting to 30 mph near Point Lay. A low offshore of Point Hope will shift a front over the NW Arctic Monday and Tuesday and bring light snowfall to that region. Otherwise, it is pretty benign elsewhere with weak high pressure developing over the E Arctic with periods of stratus and ice fog.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The low over the West Coast will continue snow squalls and gale force winds which will eventually turn more northerly as the low shifts south into the Bristol Bay region. Heavy snow squalls and significant blowing snow is likely from the Bering Strait to Saint Lawrence Island as this occurs, possibly over th YK Delta as well. 850 temps aloft will be very cold, with values of -17 to -20 C likely, and over open waters, which will increase lapse rates and snowfall intensity at times. Chances for snow increase over the Interior as well as fronts shifts north from the Gulf of AK across the Arctic airmass over the Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Westerly gales will bring elevated waters levels of 2 to 3 feet above the normal high tide line to parts of the YK Delta Wednesday.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.

PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850-851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ858.

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Kiwalik
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Mon -- 06:26 AM AKST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:47 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:38 PM AKST     1.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:27 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 03:29 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:44 PM AKST     1.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:51 PM AKST     Last Quarter
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Kiwalik, Kotzebue Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

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