Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kivalina, AK

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- There have been significant changes to the forecast. Colder and wetter than expected conditions across the Interior have yielded higher than anticipated snowfall amounts. Storm totals will now approach 4-8 inches for much of the FNSB region, with breezy winds across higher elevations leading to areas of blowing snow across Interior highway summits. Difficult winter travel conditions will continue into Tuesday. Drive safe.

- Dry conditions will return west to east Monday night into Tuesday, as clearer skies Tuesday night into Wednesday give way to overnight lows in the teens and 20s. Any wet/slushy ground conditions will refreeze, creating slick travel conditions.

- High pressure will keep conditions dry for Tuesday and Wednesday, with a front working west to east Wednesday night into Thursday bringing the return of rain/snow showers.

- Southerly gap winds will ramp up Tuesday night into Wednesday through the Alaska Range passes, with gusts up to 65 mph possible. A Wind Advisory is now in effect.

- Remnants of Typhoon Champi will move into Western Alaska Thursday into Friday, with rain/snow showers building into the Interior Thursday night into Friday and Saturday. Southerly gap winds will increase yet again during this timeframe, with gusts over 70 mph possible.

- Highs in the 20s/30s to low 40s will persist through Friday, with lows in the teens/20s to low 30s as coldest locations remain farther east. Tuesday night is shaping up the coldest night of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Following drier, more showery conditions across Western Alaska today, a strong low will track northeast through Eastern Siberia tonight into Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing another front into Western Alaska with widespread rain, snow, high surf, and wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph primarily along the West Coast.

- As atmospheric river moisture brought in by this system continues will continue to build into Western Alaska Wednesday, as a shortwave trough lifts northeast with steady rain chances going as the front gradually shifts inland.

- Precipitation totals will be around 0.50-1.50" across much of Western Alaska, with lower totals along the Northern Seward Peninsula Coast and higher totals along the Southern Seward Peninsula Coast where totals could approach 1.50-2.50".

- Attention then quickly turns to remnants of Typhoon Champi which will enter the Bering Sea on Wednesday, ultimately moving into Western Alaska Thursday into Friday. This system is expected to be around 965 mb in the Central Bering Sea and gradually weaken as it moves inland. Exact forecast details will come into focus over the coming days. Stay tuned for updates.

- High temperatures will hold steady in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with overnight lows in the 30s to low 40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Snow gradually tapers off through through tonight across the Brooks Range with light additional accumulations.

- Drier conditions are expected Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon east of Anaktuvuk Pass while the Western Brooks Range continues to see persistent snow showers through midweek.

- Fairly calm and benign weather persists along the rest of North Slope thanks to predominantly southerly flow. Expect highs in the low/mid 30s and lows in the mid/upper 20s through midweek.

SHORT TERM
Today through Wednesday Night.
The forecast has changed significantly as temperatures have remained colder than expected, limiting the rain potential east of Nenana and as a result, yielding much higher than expected snowfall amounts. Temperature stayed around 2 to 4 degrees colder than forecast, which was all it took to keep precipitation mostly snow and lead to more substantial snow impacts across the Interior. As of 2 PM, we have measured around 5 inches of new snow at our office at UAF. Storm totals will now approach 4 to 8 inches for much of the Central Interior with lighter amounts farther east. Nenana was an example today of where the warm air was and stayed, reporting 0.03 inches of freezing rain and has also subsequently stayed all rain with temperatures in the mid 30s. The forecast was one of the many challenges of mixed precipitation forecasting, and in this case, the initial forecast ended up being more correct in the precipitation/snow water equivalent amounts, but farther off in the snow amounts given a warmer than expected setup in reality.
With the warm air advection stalling and the precipitation rates being as heavy as they are, this limited the warming that we could see as with heavy snow. As temperatures held steady near their wet bulb temperature, this staying around freezing kept precipitation predominantly snow. Elsewhere, lingering rain/snow showers will continue across Western Alaska and the North Slope/Brooks Range.

As we look towards Tuesday, rain/snow showers will have largely moved out of the Interior as high pressure strengthens in the Gulf of Alaska. Simultaneously, another low in the Bering Sea makes its way up north into the Gulf of Anadyr, working to reinforce strong southwesterly flow over the West Coast. Models are in pretty good agreement with the strength of this low hovering somewhere around 500 dam at 500 mb, which is fairly strong. However, due to its far west track, its impacts will be limited to just the West Coast and Western Brooks Range through Wednesday. As a result, we see a continuation of rain, high elevation snow, gusty winds, and elevated water levels all along the coast from Hooper Bay north to Kivalina. Although southwesterly flow tends to be a bit concerning for the West Coast during this time of year, we thankfully see within the latest PETSS guidance that water levels should only remain marginally higher than normal with most communities seeing water levels anywhere from 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tide.
However, because this is the third storm of note within the last week or so, beach erosion continues to be a point of concern.
High Surf Advisories remain in effect in these regions through early Wednesday morning.

Once this storm moves farther north into the Chukchi Sea through Wednesday, it leaves behind a very well organized front that taps into an abundance of moisture via an atmospheric river. This front drapes over the West Coast by Wednesday evening and gradually pushes east across the state into Thursday morning. As a result, widespread rain showers build into the Interior once again from west to east, with the highest accumulations expected across the West Coast and Western Interior. A few embedded snow showers are possible with this system, but will mainly be confined to the Western Brooks Range.
Outside of precipitation, other impacts from this system include strengthening southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range Passes. Gusts may reach as high as 65 mph at times through Wednesday evening. These winds are expected to briefly subside going into Thursday morning but quickly ramp up again Thursday afternoon as remnants of Typhoon Champi move into the Bering Sea and reinforce strong southerly flow through the passes. There is still quite of bit of uncertainty regarding the extent of impacts from this storm, but more on this will be discussed in the "Long Term Discussion".

LONG TERM
Thursday through next Monday.
At the start of the extended forecast period, Thursday, what was the Gulf of Anadyr storm will have moved across Siberia and into the Arctic Ocean west of the date line. Another storm system has entered the southwestern Bering Sea in its wake and is on a course for the West Coast. This next storm system is a low that, before entering the Bering Sea, combined with the remnants of Typhoon Champi. This storm is therefore fairly strong, with a peak low pressure in the 960 to 970 millibar range and very wet.

Forecast confidence has grown regarding the track this storm will take towards the West Coast Thursday into Friday. Previous model runs suggested a range of tracks potentially making landfall anywhere from the Seward Peninsula to the northern portions of Bristol Bay, but recent model trends have begun to concentrate potential tracks near Nunivak Island. A track in this location would favor easterly, offshore, flow across most of the West Coast from Hooper Bay north which would limit coastal flooding potential for much of the region. Higher than normal water levels would still be expected for many areas due to storm surge, but less favorable winds would limit coastal impacts. The storm remains very wet with widespread moderate to heavy precipitation expected across the Western portions of the state Thursday which would be able to move inland Friday and Saturday. Most of this precipitation would be rain in the valleys, with snow expected along Interior summits and in the larger mountain ranges. There is still some uncertainty with this storm, but forecast details are beginning to become clearer. We will continue to monitor this storm and provide updates as the forecast certainty continues to increase.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL
A series of storm systems continue to move through the Bering Sea this week. The current storm system is the second in this series and, as of early Monday morning, continues to move northeast through the Seward Peninsula. This low rapidly weakens through Monday, but the next storm system enters the Western Bering Sea Monday morning as well. This next storm is significantly stronger than the previous two and is expected to be the strongest in this series of storms. Thankfully its expected track is almost due north from the Western Aleutians towards the westernmost edge of the Gulf of Anadyr. Due to this track, coastal impacts will be significantly limited despite the size and strength of the storm. It however will keep water levels above normal. High Surf Advisories are in effect for the entire West Coast from Hooper Bay to Kivalina. Several days of higher than normal water levels across most of the coast enhances the risk of beach and coastal erosion.

Water levels are expected to have a brief window to decrease late Wednesday into Thursday ahead of yet another large low pressure system that moves through the Bering Sea. This storm system contains the remnants of Typhoon Champi causing it to be fairly strong, peaking in the 960 to 970 millibar range, and very wet. Confidence is increasing in the track of this storm as it moves from the southwestern Bering Sea towards the West Coast Thursday. Current forecasts trends are concentrating possible storm tracks near Nunivak Island. A track south of the Norton Sound would limit the potential for coastal hazards for areas north of Hooper Bay due to mostly easterly, offshore, winds. The storm surge would still keep water levels above normal though with beach and shore erosion remaining a likely threat. It is still too early to give any specific expected details regarding potential impacts from this storm system, but forecast trends are beginning to favor a more southerly track which would be less impactful for the Norton Sound Coast. We will continue to monitor this storm and update the forecast as confidence continues to increase.

HYDROLOGY
Several very wet storm systems are expected to move across Alaska this week. The heaviest precipitation from these storm systems is currently expected across the higher elevation areas of the West Coast and Western Interior, especially along the Southern Seward Peninsula and the Western/Central Brooks Range.
At this time, we are not anticipating any rain or snowmelt related flooding, but we will continue to monitor should the situation change. Additional precipitation totals across much of Western Alaska will be around 1 to 3 inches for most locations, with south facing slopes potentially seeing some locally higher totals. There is a chance that there could be enough rainfall induced snowmelt to bring some minor flooding concerns to rivers and streams in the immediate vicinity of those higher terrain areas of Western Alaska. This chance is most likely in those portions of Western Alaska that could see those locally higher precipitation totals where nearby rivers and streams are already relatively high. We have gone ahead and issued a Hydrologic Outlook today for the Southern Seward Peninsula to capture the river and stream levels that have already begun responding and rising, especially with additional heavier rain expected.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ812- 831.
High Surf Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ815-817- 818-820>822-824-825.
High Wind Warning until 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ820-821-827.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ832-834- 835-838.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ837-839>845.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ847-849.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ801-802-817-850-853-854.
Gale Warning from 4 AM to 7 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ802-807-854.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ803- 804-852.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ803- 810-811-856-857.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ804- 806-809-858.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ805-807-852.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ806.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ806.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ808- 855.
Gale Warning from 10 AM to 1 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ811.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ816-851.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ816.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ817.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ850.
Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ851.