Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kivalina, AK

DISCUSSION
Key Weather Impacts by Region...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Warm temperatures continue through the middle of next week with high temperatures peaking around the mid-upper 30s on Monday from the AK Range to FNSB.

- Gap winds weaken today, then strengthen tomorrow afternoon and evening. Winds will likely gust near or over 70 mph, especially in Isabel Pass. Windy Pass may approach 70 mph sunday night but there is less confidence. Strong winds continue through Monday.

- A front will move over the AK Range on Monday, there is a slight chance for snow in Fairbanks, though FNSB will likely be chinooked enough to keep it dry. North of the area has the greatest probabilities for light snow.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Light snow from St. Lawrence Island to the Brooks Range. A front will move from south to north this afternoon and evening providing light snow for most of the Western Interior. This front arrives near Ambler by late Sunday night.
- 0.5 - 1.5 inches of snow is expected for most of the area.

- A stronger storm moving into the southern Bering on Sunday will provide widespread mixed precipitation.
- Expect snow amounts upwards of 6-10 inches in the Nulato Hills with around 1-3 inches in the Western Interior by Sunday night.
- St. Lawrence Island and the Seward Peninsula will begin to see snow Sunday evening/night with 2-4 inches in the lower elevations and upwards of 6-8 inches in the terrain by Monday night.
- Precipitation looks to turn to a mix with and change to rain in SW AK Sunday evening. It changes over to rain in the southern Seward Peninsula and St. Lawrence Island Monday afternoon/evening.
- A glaze of ice is likely for most areas.

- Precipitation looks to taper on Tuesday, but drizzle and light rain will be possible in most valleys south of the Seward Peninsula while the terrain remains snow.

- Above freezing temperatures are very likely across almost the whole area Monday and Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Light snow in the Brooks Range today, around 1-2 inches of snow expected.

- Strong Chinook conditions Monday and Tuesday will bring well above normal temperatures and strong south winds through Brooks Range passes.
- Snow chances Sunday night into Monday have the potential to mix with freezing rain, sleet and rain Monday night, though it will be drying out across most of the Slope.

- Strong easterly gales develop along the coast Sunday night into Monday. Some blowing snow is possible, especially near Kaktovik, but visibilities should remain around 1 mile.

Analysis and Forecast Confidence...
The low that has been near Nunivak Island the last couple of days is gradually shifting northwest but will still provide light snow to most of Western Alaska from the Brooks Range south today through tomorrow morning. This low, coupled with a high in SE AK is providing southerly flow over the Interior. This has resulted in some gap winds which will be weakening today. Otherwise, dry weather persists in the Central/Eastern Interior. The North Slope has a chance for some light snow near Kaktovik, but any snow will be brief and light. Otherwise, a high in the Arctic is bringing some clear skies to the coast. It will cloud up once again this afternoon into tonight as a shortwave drops south from about 80N.

We then look towards Sunday where a storm enters the southern Bering from the Northern Pacific. This will be coming with plenty of moisture. As the moisture passes over the mountains, it will get wrung out but there will still be snow in SW AK by Sunday morning. This progresses north through the afternoon and to the Brooks Range by Sunday night. Warm, above freezing air, will intrude from the south all the way to the Seward Peninsula changing the snow to rain. Given the below freezing ground surfaces, any rain will likely freeze on contact. This will lead to a glaze of ice across much of the area from Nome south/east.
The only exception will be in the terrain where cold air likely remains in place and keeps precipitation all snow.

For more details on timing, check out the specific warnings/advisories in your area on our website weather.gov/afg .

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Warm weather continues for much of the state. The low in the Bering Sea will be weakening and drifting northwest on Tuesday, but light rain and snow will still be around Western Alaska.
Otherwise, everyone along the West Coast will dry out by Wednesday afternoon. From here, there will be chances for snow on the North Slope Tuesday - Thursday as the remnant front progresses northward, though this looks to be mainly light. Lastly, we will be monitoring the chance for snow in the Central/Eastern Interior Wednesday and Thursday as a low in the Gulf of Alaska throws a front over the Alaska Range providing southeast flow and moisture.
Confidence levels for this are low, but snow chances for the Interior will return next week as an active pattern persists.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Nome may see water levels 1 to 3 feet above the normal high tide line on Monday night and Tuesday, otherwise no coastal impacts are expected from this storm system.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...High Wind Warning for AKZ849.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ817.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822-824.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ823-829.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825-826-830.
Wind Advisory for AKZ837-847.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-812.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817-851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
Gale Warning for PKZ857-858.