Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kaktovik, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Warm weather continues with highs in the mid 80s remaining through most of the week.
- See heat advisory for additional details.

- Isolated thunderstorms expected Sunday afternoon with greater potential west of Fairbanks. Thunderstorm potential increases for Monday and Tuesday in the Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms return to the Western Interior Sunday afternoon. Showers with scattered thunderstorms expected Monday and Tuesday.
- The greatest thunderstorm potential is in the Western Interior south of Huslia Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

- Temperatures in the 70s to low 80s for the Western Interior and the 60s for the coast expected to persist through most of the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s on the Arctic Plain and in the 60s along the coast persist through most of the week.

- Rapid snowmelt is causing rapid rises in rivers.

- Isolated afternoon thunderstorms along the southern slopes of the Western Brooks Range possible Sunday through Tuesday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 572 dam upper level high sits over the Eastern Brooks Range, a 539 dam upper level low remains in the Bering Sea southwest of St.
Lawrence Island, and a 544 dam upper level low remains in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska. The high slowly moves north allowing shortwaves and areas of enhanced vorticity to rotate around the 2 lows into the Southern and Western Interiors. This will greatly enhance convection in the Western Interior where the 3 upper level features are able to interact. Because of this showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected in the Western Interior south of Huslia Monday and Tuesday afternoon. The high begins to move further south Wednesday which will limit some of the convective development slightly, although showers and widely scattered storms are still expected throughout much of the Interior. High temperatures and dry conditions with light winds continues so long as the high remains over Northern Alaska.



FIRE WEATHER
Warm and very dry conditions continue in the Interior. Winds remain generally light through the week, but reach around 15 mph Monday and Tuesday afternoons in the Yukon Flats and nearby elevated terrain. This has necessitated a red flag warning for that region on Monday and Tuesday. Thunderstorm activity increases in the Southern Interior and Western Interior Sunday with widely scattered thunderstorms in the Western Interior and further increases Monday and Tuesday with scattered thunderstorms over the Western Interior and widely scattered thunderstorms expected in the Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country. With the warm and dry conditions at the surface fuels will continue to dry out with possible critical fire weather concerns Tuesday in the Southwestern Interior due to increased thunderstorm activity and drying fuels. A fire weather watch has been issued for this concern.

HYDROLOGY
Rivers are continuing to breakup across the North Slope. River levels are continuing to rise and will likely crest early to middle of this week. On the Sag, there has been an emergency closure o f the Dalton Highway between MP 305 and MP 356 due to a major washout at MP 315 caused by a failed culvert as well as water over topping the road at several other spots. On the Colville, flooding is occurring at Umiat with ice jams present further downstream. Flooding could occur downstream over the next couple of days as these ice jams release.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Warm weather will continue across much of Northern Alaska as an upper-level ridge over the northeastern mainland gradually shifts to the southeast during the extended time frame. Thunderstorms will also be possible across wide swaths of the Interior and some parts of the West Coast during this time frame. A vertically- stacked low moving into the Bering Sea late this week and may lead to dropping temperatures across parts of Western Alaska, but there is low confidence on the track, which. As the ridge shifts to the southeast, the extent of the warmest (especially >80F)
temperatures may also retreat eastward.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Fire Weather Watch for AKZ929-930-952.
Flood Watch for AKZ804>806-808>810.
Red Flag Warning for AKZ931>934.
Heat Advisory for AKZ833>835-838>846.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.