Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kaktovik, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Warming trend continues with temperatures reaching the mid 80s this weekend and continuing into early next week.
- See heat advisory for additional details.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon along the AlCan Border, then become more widespread Sunday through Tuesday.
- Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected in the Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Showery conditions continue for the West Coast through Saturday night. Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms return to the Western Interior Sunday afternoon. Showers with scattered thunderstorms expected Monday and Tuesday.

- 70s are likely in the Western Interior over the weekend, reaching the low 80s by Monday afternoon.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Temperatures begin to reach the 60s and 70s this weekend in the Arctic Plain, with 50s and low 60s along the coast.
- The North Slope and Anaktuvuk Pass could see high temperatures reach 77F Sunday afternoon/evening.

- Isolated afternoon thunderstorms along the southern slopes of the Western Brooks Range possible Sunday through Tuesday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 567 dam upper level high sits over the Alaskan Interior. A 529 dam upper level low sits in the Bering Sea southwest of St.
Lawrence Island and a 542 dam upper level low in the southeastern Gulf of Alaska. The high slowly moves north and strengthens through the weekend becoming a 572 dam high over the Eastern Brooks Range by Sunday night. Temperatures across the region continue to rise under the high. As the high moves further north thunderstorm and shower development begins in the Southern and Western Interior and increases as the lows in the Bering and Gulf continue to chip away at the southern portions of the high.
Thunderstorms are most likely in the Western Interior Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Warm temperatures continue well into next week and will persist so long as the high remains strong over the region. The high is likely to last through the end of next week weakening slightly Thursday through next Saturday and possibly being pushed east next Sunday, but confidence in this solution is low.

FIRE WEATHER
Warm and very dry conditions continue in the Interior into next week. Winds remain generally light through the week, but reach up to 15 mph Monday afternoon in the Yukon Flats and nearby elevated terrain. This has necessitated a red flag warning for that region on Monday. Thunderstorm activity increases in the Southern Interior and Western Interior Sunday with widely scattered thunderstorms in the Western Interior and further increases Monday and Tuesday with scattered thunderstorms over the western Interior and widely scattered thunderstorms expected in the Southern Interior. With the warm and dry conditions at the surface fuels will continue to dry out with possible critical fire weather concerns Tuesday in the Southwestern Interior due to increased thunderstorm activity. A fire weather watch has been issued for this concern.

HYDROLOGY
Flooding is likely across portions of the North Slope due to an unusually deep and persistent late-season snowpack combined with a sharp and prolonged warming trend through next week. A rapid onset of snowmelt has begun as temperatures have warmed into the 50's and 60's over the past couple of days across the North Slope and are expected to remain well above normal through the middle of next week. River levels have begun to rise and will likely crest early next week. Ice has begun to breakup on the upper part of the Sag River on Thursday with DOT reporting water over a portion of the Dalton Highway near MP 323. Reports also show that the Colville River is beginning to breakup. A 2-mile long ice jam was reported Friday evening along the Colville at Ocean Point with no flooding or impacts.

Intact ice remains on many of the larger rivers, and the sudden influx of snowmelt runoff could lead to ice jam formation. These jams can cause sudden and severe rises in water levels, posing a significant threat to roads or other infrastructure near the affected waterways.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
High pressure continues to sit over the Eastern Brooks Range facilitating warm temperatures for the region and increased thunderstorm activity in the Southern and Western Interior each afternoon. The high weakens slightly Thursday through Saturday as lows in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska chip away at it which will lower temperatures slightly and allow showers and thunderstorms to move further into the Interior. A possible pattern change arrives next Sunday as a low attempts to push the high east into Canada, but confidence in this solution is still low.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Fire Weather Watch for AKZ929-930-952.
Flood Watch for AKZ804>806-808>810.
Red Flag Warning for AKZ932>934.
Heat Advisory for AKZ833>835-838>846.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801>805-852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-853-856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.