Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Barrow, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Warmer and drier conditions will make a return today across the region. Daytime highs will rise into the mid to upper 70s, and will stick around for the next couple of days.

- A Wind Advisory remains in place for southerly wind gusts have been issued for Alaska Range passes through Tuesday morning for gusts up to 65 mph.

- Isolated to scattered rain showers will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday across the Central Interior. Accumulations from these showers would be T-0.1".

- Isolated thunderstorms could accompany the rain showers on Wednesday from Tanana to the Brooks Range. These chances will expand eastward on Thursday to encompass the White Mountains, Yukon Flats, and Fortymile Country.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Another front will be moving through the region today bringing gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall. An additional 0.5" to 1.25" of rainfall will be possible through Tuesday night.
This rainfall will be showery in nature and not widespread throughout the region.

- Gusty southerly winds will steadily weaken through the afternoon today. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will are expected with the strongest winds in the eastern Norton Sound.

- After today scattered to widespread rain showers will continue through the week across the region with the Nulato Hills, eastern Norton Sound, and the Seward Peninsula seeing the most rainfall.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Temperatures will rapidly warm today across the region with the coastal communities being in the 60s and the Arctic Plains in the low to mid 70s. These warmer temperatures will continue until Friday when they will begin to cool.

- Gusty southerly winds will continue to strengthen across the Brooks Range, with wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph being possible across the range including Anaktuvuk and Atigun Passes. These elevated winds will weaken by Wednesday at Noon.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A fully occluded 992 mb low is continuing to slowly move east into Norton Sound where it will stall and completely weaken. The wind field for this low is roughly 25 to 50 miles further east than what the models were depicting during the 00Z model runs yesterday afternoon. This shift while doesn't have many impacts, it does influence how high the waters will get along the coast.
With a smaller fetch of wind pushing water towards the Southern Seward Peninsula than it will struggle to get above the 3 feet mark, this led us to cancel the high surf advisory for the Southern Seward Peninsula early.

As the occluded front makes its way through the West Coast and Western Interior today we will see another round of moderate to heavy rainfall. Through this morning the rain will be fairly widespread and stratiform, but as the afternoon progresses drier and cooler air aloft will encroach into the region. This will cause the rain to become showery in nature. Chinook flow will continue across the Central and Eastern Interior allowing the region to continue to dry out and warm up.

While the surface low will begin to stall and fall apart on Wednesday the 500 mb low remains closed off. This will provide support for scattered to widespread rain showers to continue across the West Coast and Western Interior. The closed off 500 mb low is nearly stationary due it being squished between a ridge axis over the Bering Sea and Western Canada. With enough moisture remaining in the Interior and cold air aloft we could see some isolated thunderstorms to develop today through thursday.

Thursday evening a low coming off Eastern Siberia will be the force that begins to shift the weather pattern a bit. This low will be talked about in more detail in the Extended Forecast Discussion section as much of the shift as well as model spread begins there.

FIRE WEATHER
A large low on the West Coast brings widespread showery rain to West Coast and Western Interior through the end of the week. Gusty south to Southeast winds are expected to gradually weaken across Western Alaska as the low itself slowly weakens in place over the Norton Sound. As the low weakens there is a chance for isolated thunderstorms across the Western Interior Tuesday and Wednesday which spread east across the entire Interior Thursday. Showery conditions will keep the western portions of the state relatively cool and very moist through the end of the week significantly limiting fire potential despite some lightning activity.

The eastern portions of the Interior, especially the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country, remain warmer and much drier than Western Alaska. Highs in the 70s are expected through Thursday across the Eastern Interior with minimum RHs in the 30s to 40s range. The Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country will be drier with minimum RH values in the mid 20s to mid 30s through Thursday.
Isolated thunderstorm activity spreads to the Eastern Interior Thursday which, when combined with the dry conditions of the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country allows for a non-zero, but still slim, chance of storms with virga and dry lightning. The driest air is not aligned with the areas of greatest thunderstorm potential so the chances are quite slim, but should a storm form there virga and dry lightning are possible. We will continue to monitor this risk.

Thursday the remnants of the low on the West Coast begin to push east bringing more widespread rain to the Western Interior once more. By Friday the low's influence will have reached the Eastern Interior cooling the region and bringing much higher chances for wetting rains to the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country.

HYDROLOGY
Over the past 48 hours there has been 1" to 3" of rainfall across the West Coast and Western Interior. As another low moves through the region today it will bring an additional 0.5" to 1.25" of rainfall. This could exacerbate the conditions in the smaller creeks and streams. No flooding is currently expected, but river rises are anticipated and smaller creeks and streams could become bankfull.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
For the first couple of days in the extended period there is fairly good model agreement. A low will begin move off of Eastern Siberia on Thursday evening. This low will push the stationary upper level low that has been over the Western Interior since Tuesday towards the East. As this low moves east across the Interior on Friday and Saturday it will bring isolated to scattered showers and cooler temperatures to the Central and Eastern Interior.

Where model divergence occurs is on Sunday when the aforementioned low that is moving off of Eastern Siberia on Thursday will continue to move southwards towards the Gulf of Alaska. The North Pacific High would potentially get split into two, and one of the ridge axis would strengthen in the Bering Sea. The ensemble model guidance wants to build this ridge axis into the Interior bringing ridging to most of Interior Alaska. On the flip side the deterministic guidance is showing the potential for large scale troughing to continue into early next week. Looking at cluster analysis over half of the clusters have broad troughing and only one with primarily ridging. At this moment I would tend to lean towards weak troughing over Northern Alaska continuing into early next week. This would keep chances for showers and cooler temperatures to continue into early next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
Gusty southerly winds from a Bering Sea low will result in higher surf along the West Coast. Waters will remain 1 to 3 feet above mean high tide. During the Tuesday afternoon high tide water levels will begin to subside as the low moves east.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ847-849.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-805-852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-853-854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-855-856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809.