Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Barrow, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Hot weather continues with highs in the mid to upper 80s through at least midweek.
- See Heat Advisory for more details.

- Increasing coverage of thunderstorms today with widely scattered storms across much of the Southern Interior, with Scattered storms from Manley Hot Springs west.
- Scattered storms from Tanana to the Middle Tanana Valley tomorrow with isolated to widely scattered storms elsewhere.
- Some storms may be strong to severe, especially tomorrow afternoon/evening with 1" hail and/or 60 mph winds possible.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Wide area of thunderstorms likely this afternoon and tonight with numerous thunderstorm activity from Galena to McGrath.
- Thunderstorms can persist through the night, and some storms may be strong to severe with 1" hail and/or 60 mph winds possible.

- Temperatures remain warmer than average in the Interior and near, to slightly above normal along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Continued warm temperatures with 50s/60s along the eastern coast, upper 40s from Utqiagvik southwest, 70s to near 80 inland and 60s/70s in the Brooks Range.

- Scattered showers with isolated to widely scattered storms are expected each afternoon in the Brooks Range and Southern Arctic Plain through the end of the week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 572 decameter high over the Eastern Brooks Range keeps pumping easterly flow and numerous shortwaves into the Interior which is sparking thunderstorms each afternoon. This is also the reason most of the state is very warm. Out west, there is a 545 decameter low near the Gulf of Anadyr which shears apart and moves southwest tonight. Otherwise, this big ridge over the Interior will be the main player in our weather as it hangs around through the week before models try to break it down. As we know, ridge break down is not handled well by models and usually, troughs or lows cannot barrel through the high like some of the models are showing (i.e the GFS). What will most likely happen is a solution similar to the CMC, ECMWF and ICON. These keep the ridge in place, and brings southerly flow to Western Alaska by early next week, ridging over the Interior, and maybe a degrading ridge by the middle of next week.

FIRE WEATHER
Hot, dry, windy and thunderstorms is the name of the game Tuesday afternoon. Fortunately in the Northern Interior we will be dropping our Red Flag Warning tonight as winds lessen.
Temperatures will continue to be around 85 to 90 with min RHs around 20% from Bettles to the Yukon Flats through Thursday. A Red Flag Warning in Southwest Alaska is in effect Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night for lightning. In the Lower and Middle Tanana Valley, a Red Flag Warning will be in effect from 4PM Wednesday through Wednesday night at midnight for lightning as well. Luckily these thunderstorms will be wet and come with briefly heavy rain. Otherwise, conditions look to remain warm with min RHs in the 20-30% range across much of the Interior with the lowest RHs in the Northern Interior. Thunderstorms will be around each day through the end of the week, but the most intense lightning days will be Tuesday in the Western Interior and Wednesday in the Tanana Valley with the potential for a decrease in activity on Thursday, though confidence is medium.

HYDROLOGY
Continued flooding on the Colville, Kuparuk and Sag Rivers on the North Slope. On the Sag, an emergency closure of the Dalton Highway from Mp 305 to Mp 356 continues due to a major washout at Mp 315. Water levels have begun to drop on the Sag, there is still water over parts of the highway, but at the very least, there are signs of improvement. The Colville at Umiat has crested and will very gradually drop, but there is still a lot of water that has to go through there before they are completely out of the woods. On the Kuparuk, Spine Road has seen some water over it, which is typical for the area, but with water levels continuing to rise, it water will likely continue to be on the road. Additional flooding is expected to occur on these rivers for at least the next couple of days.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Ridging over the Eastern Interior with southerly to southwesterly flow over the Western Interior and West Coast. There will likely be some rain and the potential for cooler temperatures over the West Coast with shortwaves and lows moving north from the Gulf of Alaska bringing periods of rain by next week. Thunderstorms and warm temperatures will continue in the Central/Eastern Interior and North Slope through the weekend and perhaps into next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ929-930-952.
Flood Watch for AKZ804>806-808>810.
Red Flag Warning for AKZ931>934.
Heat Advisory for AKZ833>835-838>846.
Red Flag Warning for AKZ938>946.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.