Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hawaiian Ocean View, HI
October 3, 2023 11:40 AM HST (21:40 UTC)
Sunrise 6:23AM Sunset 6:19PM Moonrise 9:57PM Moonset 10:05AM
Area Discussion for - Honolulu, HI
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FXHW60 PHFO 031932 AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 932 AM HST Tue Oct 3 2023
SYNOPSIS
Light winds will give way to a land and sea breeze pattern for the remainder of the work week. Interior clouds and a few showers can be expected each afternoon followed by light offshore winds and clearing overnight. Moderate trade winds and a more typical windward and mauka focused shower pattern returns by Friday.
DISCUSSION
Mid-latitude troughing, the southern periphery of which is forecast to graze the islands tonight through Wednesday, continues deepening along 160W this morning. Southwest flow in advance of this feature has captured the upper low and attendant unstable airmass which supported yesterday's convection on Oahu and lifted it well northeast of the area. At present, Hawaii within a region of subtle mid-level shortwave ridging embedded within a broader envelope of cyclonic flow aloft. As such, the morning sounding out of Lihue indicates low-level instability that is comparable to yesterday but also developing subsidence inversion around 20kft/500mb. These warmer mid-levels serve as a firm cap on convective intensity today, but given that yesterday's stronger cells topped out around 15kft, similar rain rates of around 1 inch per hour may be possible on an isolated basis again today. The lack of larger scale forcing may limit afternoon shower coverage, but sea breezes will be in full force to compensate. Pockets of showers containing locally heavy rain will be possible through the afternoon before dissipating with the onset of nocturnal cooling this evening. Gentle offshore land breezes will then bring clearing for the remainder of the night, the potential exception being immediate coastlines where land breeze boundaries may support pockets of very isolated heavy rainfall overnight. Little change is then expected heading into Wednesday, though convection may get a slight boost with the aforementioned mid- latitude trough poised to work through the area.
The latter half of the week will be characterized by a very progressive mid-latitude pattern as the upper jet works its way across the North Pacific Basin. High pressure along 30N will accordingly begin building toward the Hawaiian Islands as early as Thursday signaling the initial stages of a return to a trade wind pattern. In all likelihood, and based on current model guidance, any returning easterlies on Thursday will be quite light and will favor another round of interior and/or leeward showers Thursday afternoon.
The latest long range guidance indicates continued southward displacement of governing high pressure placing the state tenuously along the northern fringe of the trade wind belt. Thus, the extended period carries some uncertainty with respect to the magnitude of returning trades.
AVIATION
Land and sea breezes will continue through Thursday with clouds and showers developing over interior portions during the day then dissipating after sunset. Expect mainly VFR conditions with brief MVFR possible under passing showers.
There are currently no AIRMETs in effect.
MARINE
Light southeasterly to variable winds will continue for the next several days as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest and then dissipates. Trade winds will push back in this weekend.
A new northwest (310 degree), mid-period swell will build today is expected to peak on Wednesday bringing moderate surf to north and west facing shores before turning to a more north northwest (340 degrees) Thursday before subsiding this weekend.
A small background southeasterly (140 degree) and south (200 degree) swells will continue for the rest of the week will keep surf along adjacent shorelines.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 932 AM HST Tue Oct 3 2023
SYNOPSIS
Light winds will give way to a land and sea breeze pattern for the remainder of the work week. Interior clouds and a few showers can be expected each afternoon followed by light offshore winds and clearing overnight. Moderate trade winds and a more typical windward and mauka focused shower pattern returns by Friday.
DISCUSSION
Mid-latitude troughing, the southern periphery of which is forecast to graze the islands tonight through Wednesday, continues deepening along 160W this morning. Southwest flow in advance of this feature has captured the upper low and attendant unstable airmass which supported yesterday's convection on Oahu and lifted it well northeast of the area. At present, Hawaii within a region of subtle mid-level shortwave ridging embedded within a broader envelope of cyclonic flow aloft. As such, the morning sounding out of Lihue indicates low-level instability that is comparable to yesterday but also developing subsidence inversion around 20kft/500mb. These warmer mid-levels serve as a firm cap on convective intensity today, but given that yesterday's stronger cells topped out around 15kft, similar rain rates of around 1 inch per hour may be possible on an isolated basis again today. The lack of larger scale forcing may limit afternoon shower coverage, but sea breezes will be in full force to compensate. Pockets of showers containing locally heavy rain will be possible through the afternoon before dissipating with the onset of nocturnal cooling this evening. Gentle offshore land breezes will then bring clearing for the remainder of the night, the potential exception being immediate coastlines where land breeze boundaries may support pockets of very isolated heavy rainfall overnight. Little change is then expected heading into Wednesday, though convection may get a slight boost with the aforementioned mid- latitude trough poised to work through the area.
The latter half of the week will be characterized by a very progressive mid-latitude pattern as the upper jet works its way across the North Pacific Basin. High pressure along 30N will accordingly begin building toward the Hawaiian Islands as early as Thursday signaling the initial stages of a return to a trade wind pattern. In all likelihood, and based on current model guidance, any returning easterlies on Thursday will be quite light and will favor another round of interior and/or leeward showers Thursday afternoon.
The latest long range guidance indicates continued southward displacement of governing high pressure placing the state tenuously along the northern fringe of the trade wind belt. Thus, the extended period carries some uncertainty with respect to the magnitude of returning trades.
AVIATION
Land and sea breezes will continue through Thursday with clouds and showers developing over interior portions during the day then dissipating after sunset. Expect mainly VFR conditions with brief MVFR possible under passing showers.
There are currently no AIRMETs in effect.
MARINE
Light southeasterly to variable winds will continue for the next several days as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest and then dissipates. Trade winds will push back in this weekend.
A new northwest (310 degree), mid-period swell will build today is expected to peak on Wednesday bringing moderate surf to north and west facing shores before turning to a more north northwest (340 degrees) Thursday before subsiding this weekend.
A small background southeasterly (140 degree) and south (200 degree) swells will continue for the rest of the week will keep surf along adjacent shorelines.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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