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Forecast for Marine Location Near Enon, VA

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Discussion for Wakefield, VA
MARINE... As of 625 AM EST Monday... Latest analysis reveals ~1000mb sfc low pressure over northern NY, with the associated sfc cold front now offshore of the mid- Atlantic coast. Locally, winds have veered around to the W-NW at ~10, with some locally stronger winds in the lower bay/lower James River. Regional ACARS soundings and model soundings continue to show a narrow axis of H925 winds of ~30-35 kt over the northern Delmarva, which will drop SE toward our far northern ocean zones in the next few hours. Winds in the Delaware Bay are currently 10-15 kt with gusts to ~20 kt over Cape May and Lewes, DE as of 08z, and expect a brief window where winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts to ~20 kt from ~09z-12z this morning. Any gusts to SCA would be rather short-lived, and with seas likely to remain 3-4 ft, no need for SCA at this time. Thereafter, weak high pressure settles over the area later today into tonight with winds becoming light and variable. As 1022+mb cool high pressure builds in from the west, expect more organized cool air advection to push into the region tonight. Winds out of the NW-NNW increase to 10-15 kt tonight, lowest over the Rivers and Currituck Sound. In-house wind probs roughly match grand ensemble probabilities, with each showing ~20-30% probability of seeing a brief period of SCA conditions after midnight tonight/early Tues over the nrn Ches Bay, with gusts t0 25 kt also possible over the northern coastal zones north of Parramore Island. Given this short-lived and marginal nature of the CAA surge late tonight, will hold off on Small Craft Advisory for now. Transient high pressure briefly builds overhead on Tuesday, with winds again turning light and variable. Quick-moving low pressure crosses the area on Wednesday into Wed night, with SCAs very likely to be needed behind this system and its associated surface cold front NW winds of 20-25 kt and gusts to ~30 kt are forecast for late Wed aftn through Wed evening, with winds slowly subsiding as high pressure builds in behind the system for Thursday. Seas will quickly build to 5-7 ft Wed night (waves 2-4 ft). Winds gradually back to the west then southwest from Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, with winds aob 10 kt Thu night and Friday. Seas concurrently subside during this period, decreasing to 2-4 ft, with waves 1-2 ft. 00z/4 Global models are trending toward better agreement with respect to potential for impactful marine conditions for the upcoming weekend. ECMWF/GFS and their respective member ensemble means are in better agreement with timing of low pressure lifting NW of the local area Saturday into Sunday. Seas will start to gradually increase again late Fri/Fri night in E-SE swell between the approaching system and high pressure in the western Atlantic. Warm this weekend in gusty SSW flow ahead of the approaching cold front. SCA headlines will be possible both ahead of and behind this approaching front over the upcoming weekend.

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Weather Reporting Stations Wind History from RIC

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Curles, 1 mile north of, James River, Virginia

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City Point (Hopewell), James River, Virginia

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GEOS Local Image of east us

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