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Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Caroline, VA

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Discussion for Wakefield, VA
MARINE... As of 345 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Onshore flow will continue early this week. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all of the marine area. A few gusts to 35 knots are possible south of Cape Charles late Monday into Monday night. - Low pressure off the Carolina coast may acquire tropical characteristics as it approaches the South Carolina or southern North Carolina coast on Monday. - Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to linger well into this week. - Another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions is increasingly likely next weekend. Low pressure continues to linger off the Carolina coast this afternoon while the surface high to our north has shifted east to the New England coast. The gradient between these two features continues to result in a ~20 kt NE wind (with frequent gusts to 25 kt...and occasional gusts to 30 kt). Seas have built to 5-6 ft N/6-8 ft S. Not expecting much change in the synoptic pattern through tonight, although the low the Carolina coast may strengthen and drift to the NNW toward SE NC or NE SC. Therefore, expect the ENE-NE wind to persist through the night although wind speeds may decrease by a couple of knots overnight. SCAs remain in effect for all marine zones. The 12z/15 guidance is finally coming into better agreement with respect to the track/evolution of the low to our south. While it could still acquire some tropical characteristics before coming onshore just south of the NC/SC border on Monday...the track has shifted to the south/west compared to yesterday (and even last night). As such, local wind probs have decreased from earlier and now are less than 10% for gusts of 34kt or greater. Still think that winds increase 20-25 kt with frequent gusts to 30 kt on Monday (and persist through much of Mon night). Will likely see a few gusts of ~35 kt (especially at elevated terminals). Therefore, went ahead and converted the Gale Watches to SCAs for the southern waters. All SCAs run through Tuesday. Winds veer to the E then ESE on Tue and decrease to ~15 kt by Tue evening. Winds remain onshore on Wed/Thu (with speeds of 10-15 kt) as what's left of the low very slowly tracks near the central Appalachians. Seas build to 7-10 ft Mon night and have issued a High Surf Advisory through Tue AM for the NE NC Outer Banks and VA Beach. Seas slowly subside Tue/Tue night and should fall below SCA criteria by Wed. The high rip current risk continues through Tue. High pressure drops south from Canada into New England next weekend. This will allow the pressure gradient to tighten across the local waters beginning Fri and continuing into early next week with a prolonged period of NE onshore flow expected. Confidence is increasing in SCA criteria winds during this time with winds 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt possible. Will note that the GFS is the most aggressive model, but enough consensus in at least 15-20 kt sustained winds exists between models and in the ensemble guidance to include in the forecast.

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*Weather Reporting Stations Wind History from OFP

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Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia

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Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia

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GEOS Local Image of east us

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