Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Harrisville, MI
June 2, 2024 5:44 PM EDT (21:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:39 AM Sunset 9:04 PM Moonrise 2:18 AM Moonset 3:53 PM |
LHZ362 Lake Huron From Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Point Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 331 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Tonight - North winds 5 to 10 knots in the evening becoming light and variable. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday - Light and variable winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots late in the morning - .then veering to the east in the afternoon. Patchy dense fog in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening - .then a chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers until early evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LHZ300
No data
No data
FXUS63 KAPX 021836 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Fog likely tonight across northeast lower Michigan.
- Chances for showers/storms at times late Monday through Wednesday.
- Cooler temperatures and occasionally wet weather continues late this week into next weekend.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
High pressure settles overhead tonight and slides just to the east into early Monday, setting the stage for fog development across northeast lower. This feature will move east of the region into Monday as a short wave approaches from the southwest. Pressure gradient will tighten some as high pressure is displaced with lower pressures and thus a few southerly mild breezes and warm temperatures anticipated. Showers will be on the increase due to the approaching short wave.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
High pressure builds into the region tonight resulting in calm to a slight southeast wind into early Monday. With clearing skies and temperatures likely dropping near or around saturation, fog looks like a good bet across portions of the area, especially northeast lower Michigan. Very light/slight southeast flow coupled with the higher terrain of interior northern lower looks to aid in fog development in a general area from Gladwin and vicinity up towards Gaylord as well.
Energy aloft approaches Monday afternoon/evening with a modestly moist environment characterized by dewpoints in the mid, perhaps upper 50s. However, deeper moisture and an unstable airmass will advect into the region but largely holds off until the overnight hours and into Tuesday. Thus should be showers with potentially some embedded thunder approaching the Lake Michigan open waters/coastal regions by the late afternoon/evening, likely in decaying fashion. Much of the actual precip should fall just beyond this period, with details in the long term discussion below.
Temperatures soar into the lower 80s across inland locations, about 10 degrees cooler near coastal sections of Lake Huron thanks to low level east flow/lake breeze.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Pattern Forecast: By early Monday night, a convectively enhanced mid- level shortwave is expected to be trekking across northern Michigan.
More amplified shortwave troughing encroaches on the area late Tuesday out ahead of closed upper level low pressure and attendant surface reflection that are expected to drift from Manitoba into the Great Lakes region late this week. Some signs over the last 24 hours that perhaps this late week system isn't quite as slow-moving/ stationary as previously thought, but none the less, still a rather extended stretch of cool, cloudy and showery weather expected late in the work week into the weekend.
Forecast Details: By Monday evening, upstream convection across WI and the central U.P. likely to be making a run toward northern Michigan, albeit in decaying fashion. Meager forcing and limited instability expected locally with up to a few hundred J/kg of elevated CAPE should limit overall thunderstorm coverage and strength. Higher likelihood for stronger storms displaced to our southwest tied to lower-level instability gradient. None the less, an increase in PoPs seems reasonable locally with isolated to scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder Monday night into Tuesday morning. High temps largely in the 80s across inland northern lower on Monday...70s in the U.P. and near Lake Huron given a southeast wind off Lake Huron. Likely stuck in the 60s at much of the immediate Lake Huron shoreline.
Winds veer more southerly for Tuesday, aiding to increase deep moisture across northern Michigan. This evident by PWs progged to balloon to greater than 1.50" (potentially > 1.75") by late in the day...some +1 to 2 SD above early June normals per NAEFS climatology. While some scattered convection Tuesday afternoon is possible in the presence of warm temperatures, mid-60s dew points, steepening lapse rates and increasing instability, better chances for more numerous showers arrives late Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of a cold front that's progged to cross during the day Wednesday. Worth monitoring timing of the frontal passage -- if timing continues to slow, potential for strong to severe storms may increase given a better shot of notable instability during the day Wednesday combined with bulk shear values between 30-40 kts.
By Thursday, a secondary cold front is progged to cross the forecast area during the day, aiding to reinforce much cooler temperatures as vertically stacked low pressure meanders from southern Canada into the Great Lakes region. This system will keep its effects felt through much of the upcoming weekend with temperatures some 5-10 degrees below normal (coolest Friday-Saturday), lots of clouds, breezy, and occasionally rainy periods. Almost an early fall type end to the week/weekend rather than late spring/early summer.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SCT-BKN 007-015 still remains across northeast lower, while elsewhere FEW-SCT020-050 primarily. Expect slow clearing to continue from west to east this afternoon. Light and variable to light southeast winds expected tonight, with FG development the main concern. Highest confidence in KAPN seeing substantial FG, and such reflected in the TAF with 1/2 mi VIS. Lesser confidence across other TAF terminals. Patchy to areas of FG also likely from Gladwin county up towards Otsego. FG clears out during the late morning hours on Monday with otherwise dry conditions most areas through this TAF cycle.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Fog likely tonight across northeast lower Michigan.
- Chances for showers/storms at times late Monday through Wednesday.
- Cooler temperatures and occasionally wet weather continues late this week into next weekend.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
High pressure settles overhead tonight and slides just to the east into early Monday, setting the stage for fog development across northeast lower. This feature will move east of the region into Monday as a short wave approaches from the southwest. Pressure gradient will tighten some as high pressure is displaced with lower pressures and thus a few southerly mild breezes and warm temperatures anticipated. Showers will be on the increase due to the approaching short wave.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
High pressure builds into the region tonight resulting in calm to a slight southeast wind into early Monday. With clearing skies and temperatures likely dropping near or around saturation, fog looks like a good bet across portions of the area, especially northeast lower Michigan. Very light/slight southeast flow coupled with the higher terrain of interior northern lower looks to aid in fog development in a general area from Gladwin and vicinity up towards Gaylord as well.
Energy aloft approaches Monday afternoon/evening with a modestly moist environment characterized by dewpoints in the mid, perhaps upper 50s. However, deeper moisture and an unstable airmass will advect into the region but largely holds off until the overnight hours and into Tuesday. Thus should be showers with potentially some embedded thunder approaching the Lake Michigan open waters/coastal regions by the late afternoon/evening, likely in decaying fashion. Much of the actual precip should fall just beyond this period, with details in the long term discussion below.
Temperatures soar into the lower 80s across inland locations, about 10 degrees cooler near coastal sections of Lake Huron thanks to low level east flow/lake breeze.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Pattern Forecast: By early Monday night, a convectively enhanced mid- level shortwave is expected to be trekking across northern Michigan.
More amplified shortwave troughing encroaches on the area late Tuesday out ahead of closed upper level low pressure and attendant surface reflection that are expected to drift from Manitoba into the Great Lakes region late this week. Some signs over the last 24 hours that perhaps this late week system isn't quite as slow-moving/ stationary as previously thought, but none the less, still a rather extended stretch of cool, cloudy and showery weather expected late in the work week into the weekend.
Forecast Details: By Monday evening, upstream convection across WI and the central U.P. likely to be making a run toward northern Michigan, albeit in decaying fashion. Meager forcing and limited instability expected locally with up to a few hundred J/kg of elevated CAPE should limit overall thunderstorm coverage and strength. Higher likelihood for stronger storms displaced to our southwest tied to lower-level instability gradient. None the less, an increase in PoPs seems reasonable locally with isolated to scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder Monday night into Tuesday morning. High temps largely in the 80s across inland northern lower on Monday...70s in the U.P. and near Lake Huron given a southeast wind off Lake Huron. Likely stuck in the 60s at much of the immediate Lake Huron shoreline.
Winds veer more southerly for Tuesday, aiding to increase deep moisture across northern Michigan. This evident by PWs progged to balloon to greater than 1.50" (potentially > 1.75") by late in the day...some +1 to 2 SD above early June normals per NAEFS climatology. While some scattered convection Tuesday afternoon is possible in the presence of warm temperatures, mid-60s dew points, steepening lapse rates and increasing instability, better chances for more numerous showers arrives late Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of a cold front that's progged to cross during the day Wednesday. Worth monitoring timing of the frontal passage -- if timing continues to slow, potential for strong to severe storms may increase given a better shot of notable instability during the day Wednesday combined with bulk shear values between 30-40 kts.
By Thursday, a secondary cold front is progged to cross the forecast area during the day, aiding to reinforce much cooler temperatures as vertically stacked low pressure meanders from southern Canada into the Great Lakes region. This system will keep its effects felt through much of the upcoming weekend with temperatures some 5-10 degrees below normal (coolest Friday-Saturday), lots of clouds, breezy, and occasionally rainy periods. Almost an early fall type end to the week/weekend rather than late spring/early summer.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SCT-BKN 007-015 still remains across northeast lower, while elsewhere FEW-SCT020-050 primarily. Expect slow clearing to continue from west to east this afternoon. Light and variable to light southeast winds expected tonight, with FG development the main concern. Highest confidence in KAPN seeing substantial FG, and such reflected in the TAF with 1/2 mi VIS. Lesser confidence across other TAF terminals. Patchy to areas of FG also likely from Gladwin county up towards Otsego. FG clears out during the late morning hours on Monday with otherwise dry conditions most areas through this TAF cycle.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45003 - N HURON 37NM Northeast of Alpena, MI | 44 mi | 45 min | NW 3.9G | 52°F | 50°F | 29.98 | 51°F |
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Gaylord, MI,
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