Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 1:44 AM   Moonset 4:58 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  News

PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 240 Pm Pdt Tue Jul 2 2024
This afternoon - SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.Tonight - SW wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less. Wed - SW wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Wed night - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Independence day - SW wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Thu night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less. Fri - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Fri night - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Sat - SW wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Sat night - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.

PZZ500 240 Pm Pdt Tue Jul 2 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - . Fresh to strong northerly winds continue over the outer coastal waters today, with gale force gusts possible in the northern outer waters through Tuesday night. As the surface high pressure strengthens and moves eastward, winds begin to diminish. North to northwest winds prevail through the forecast period but wind direction may become more variable by late week as winds weaken. Elevated significant wave heights between 10-12 feet continue through mid- week before abating by the late week. Portions of the northern outer waters may see peak wave heights between 12-16 feet through mid-week.

FXUS66 KMTR 022328 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 428 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024

New AVIATION, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 158 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Significant and potentially deadly heat wave begins today lasting into next week. Fire and heat highlights have been extended as confidence in this pattern prolonging increases. Gusty afternoon winds and critically dry fuels will lead to elevated fire weather concerns through the weekend.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 158 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Current temperatures are running about 10-20 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago as the high pressure builds in. Main changes for today have been extending and adding to our current hazards. I will list out the changes here and talk more about them in the next section since they carry over into the "long term". The Heat Advisory for San Francisco has been extended to include Thursday.
The Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning for all other locations originally included have been extended to NEXT Tuesday night. The Red Flag Warnings in the North Bay, Santa Cruz Mtns, and East Bay Hills have been extended to Friday morning. Finally, a Fire Weather Watch was added for interior portions of Monterey and San Bentio Counties, Santa Lucia, and the Southern Salinas Valley for Friday through Sunday. In terms of the forecast from today into Wednesday, there will be no significant change. Some locations may see a degree or two taken off their highs while other will see a degree or two added. Wednesday afternoon, there is a very weak mid-level perturbation that will bring some degree of marine influence to coastal areas and locations around the Bay.
While not a significant or even noticeable cool off by any means for most, this may help to limit high temps a bit for San Francisco Wednesday evening going into Thursday. On to the long term to discuss what we expect to happen going forward.

LONG TERM
(Thursday and beyond)
Issued at 158 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The heat isn't going anywhere any time soon. Long range guidance and cluster analysis strongly suggest this pattern is here to stay through at least the beginning of next week. Some areas may see a couple of degrees shaved off before the weekend, but it will stay hot. A secondary peak is expected by the weekend into early next week. While it may seem manageable based on looking at a single day of these temps, the length of this event will present an extremely dangerous and potentially historic event. Jogging back in "recent" memory, to find the next most significant heat event in terms of overall scale and longevity, you have to look back to 2006. Sure, some locations have seen higher temps in more recent memory, but this many days in a row may actually be challenging some records based on the current forecast. How long will this actually last? Good question. Taking a look at the ensemble guidance for 850 mb temps...the forecast mean for OAK remains above the 90th percentile and near the maximum moving average through NEXT Friday, July 12. This is especially alarming when compared with a look at how models are handling the overall pattern. In the aforementioned cluster analysis, only 2% of total members support a flattening of the ridge by mid-to-late next week. This strongly suggests that there is high confidence in this pattern and associated heat wave lasting through the forecast period. This aided in the decision to extended the Excessive Heat Warning out for 8 consecutive days, an unprecedented action from our office.

It cannot be stressed enough that this is an exceptionally dangerous and lethal situation. It may not seem so if you live near the coast, but an event of this scale, magnitude, and longevity will likely rival anything we've seen in the last 18 years for inland areas. Several days of temperatures well above normal and little relief overnight will lead to compounding effects among people and infrastructure, with the possibility of numerous heat related fatalities and rolling black outs. Heat is the number one weather related killer in the United States. By this weekend, it is VERY LIKELY that we add to that statistic if preparations are not taken seriously.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 427 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR through the TAF period except for Monterey Bay. High pressure will continue to provide clear skies, though haze may begin to appear in the late afternoon and evenings as pollution is trapped near the ground. Haze may reduce visibilities slightly below 10 miles. Aside from this, winds decrease to become light and variable tonight, with a few locations seeing light offshore flow.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Light easterly flow is likely to develop in the morning Wednesday, but will turn to become more NW and breezy into the late morning and early afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR persists through the late night tonight, though stratus is expected to begin to trickle in bringing intermittent LIFR CIGs . With the severe compression of the marine layer, and light offshore flow expected overnight, there remains some question as to whether CIGs will actually form over KMRY and KSNS. The compression and light offshore flow could be just enough to erode any stratus that begins to form. Models do indicate stratus forming over terminals in the late night tonight and early morning Wednesday, but given the aforementioned, confidence on CIG formation is only moderate. However, should CIGs form, confidence is high that they will be LIFR given the severe compression from high pressure. That all aside, VFR returns towards sunrise and lasts through the remainder of the TAF period.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 427 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Fresh to strong northerly winds continue over the outer coastal waters today, with gale force gusts possible in the northern outer waters through Tuesday night. As the surface high pressure strengthens and moves eastward, winds begin to diminish. North to northwest winds prevail through the forecast period but wind direction may become more variable by late week as winds weaken.
Elevated significant wave heights between 10-12 feet continue through mid- week before abating by the late week. Portions of the northern outer waters may see peak wave heights between 12-16 feet through mid-week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 354 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Red Flag Warnings currently in effect for high elevations of the North Bay, East Bay Hills, and the Santa Cruz Mtns have been extended to 5AM Friday. This decision was made due to a combination of continued low RH in the teens, very dry fuels, and the 4th of July holiday. Fuels are quickly curing and will see no relief through this weekend. In fact, 10 and 100 hour fuels are near historic levels in the North Bay in regard to the energy release component going into the weekend. The same fuels in the Diablo Range and Santa Cruz Mtns aren't far behind. Further south, things start to dry out more this weekend. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the Santa Lucia Range, Interior Monterey and San Benito county, and the Southern Salinas Valley from Friday morning to Sunday night.

Behringer

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-506- 508.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ006.

Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ502>504- 506-510-512>518.

Red Flag Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for CAZ502>504-512-515.

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ508-528-529.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening for CAZ516>518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

toggle option: (graph/table)

San Francisco
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:43 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:40 AM PDT     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:52 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:47 AM PDT     4.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:51 PM PDT     2.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:58 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:35 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:17 PM PDT     6.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

San Francisco, California, Tide feet

Golden Gate Bridge .8 mi E .
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:54 AM PDT     -3.26 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:43 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:46 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:52 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:57 AM PDT     3.20 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:08 PM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:40 PM PDT     -1.21 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:25 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:58 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:18 PM PDT     2.32 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:35 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:01 PM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Golden Gate Bridge .8 mi E ., San Francisco Bay, California Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

San Francisco Bay Area, CA,