SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1244 PM PDT Thu Oct 10 2024

High clouds are streaming across the Bay Area as a weak stationary boundary continues to fall apart. This system is not bringing any other noticeable impacts, and the weather is fairly typical through Friday.

For those who like to look up: keep an eye on the sunset as these clouds should hang on long enough to enhance it. Overnight, a severe geomagnetic storm is bringing a rare chance for aurora sighting as far south as Northern California tonight, according to the Space Weather Prediction Center. North of the Monterey Bay, the high clouds should be decreasing, and shouldn't cause too much issue before the morning marine layer stratus rolls in.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1244 PM PDT Thu Oct 10 2024

By early Saturday morning, an approaching cold front will bring a good chance for light rain, particularly in the North Bay where 1/4" is possible. San Francisco should stay under 1/10", but the low clouds will likely impact some Fleet Week air shows. I would shoot for the Friday show if possible. The total accumulation forecast has gone down a hair, but we will have to wait another 24 hours for more of the high resolution guidance to take a swing.

After the front passes, some cooler air aloft could support a few isolated showers on Sunday, but it doesn't look very impressive.
The sun should try to peek back out Sunday afternoon. An active long wave pattern will allow ridging to rebuild Monday-Tuesday.
causing a brief rebound in temperatures. While the uncertainty starts to balloon, there is an increasing chance of a deeper trough with a better moisture tap bringing more widespread rain on Wednesday or so.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 426 PM PDT Thu Oct 10 2024

VFR throughout the region with widespread BKN high clouds across the South Bay and Central Coast. Breezy onshore flow continues through the evening with patchy fog and LIFR stratus in the North Bay valleys and Monterey Bay, and MVFR/IFR stratus returning to the SF Bay region. Low to moderate confidence for ceilings at SJC, but have kept the TAF VFR throughout. Generally clear conditions return Friday morning, except at the immediate coast with lingering patches of stratus, with breezy onshore flow resuming later that day.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR with some lingering high clouds through the next couple of hours. Breezy and gusty northwest flow continues into the evening. Model output shows the possibility of the stratus deck setting up at the edge of the terminal, but it's more likely that stratus remains north of the airport. Breezy and gusty northwest winds resume Friday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR with BKN high clouds and breezy onshore flow through the evening. LIFR stratus builds into the region around midnight, with patchy fog possible. Stratus mixes out late Friday morning with onshore flow resuming in the afternoon.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 426 PM PDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Light to gentle northwest winds persist but winds are expected to temporarily become more moderate and shift southwesterly late Friday into Saturday as an upper level low approaches the Pacific Northwest. By Sunday, winds will weaken and become northwesterly again. This system will bring locally breezy conditions and increased precipitation chances over the coastal waters, particularly the northern waters, late Friday through early Sunday.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...None.