UPDATE
Issued at 453 AM PDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Light rain and/or drizzle continues early this morning across the North Bay and down into the San Francisco Peninsula. Rainfall amounts generally remain below 0.05". This is likely a result of the dissipating frontal boundary across the region. Precipitation is likely to begin to diminish by late morning.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 239 AM PDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Warmer temperatures are expected today, especially across the North Bay where rain showers were present yesterday and temperatures were as much as 13 degrees below seasonal averages. Temperatures this afternoon will largely be near seasonal averages as low clouds dissipate across inland areas and retreat to the coast. However, some coastal locations may not see the sun at all today due to low cloud cover. Generally expecting upper 70's to low 80's across the interior, low-to-mid 70's for San Francisco and the Bay Shoreline, and upper 60's to low 70's near the coast.

Tonight, expecting temperatures to drop into the low-to-upper 50's for most. As moist conditions prevail across the region, cannot rule out coastal and favored upslope spots to experience drizzle.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 239 AM PDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Temperatures are likely to remain near normal for this time of year through Tuesday. Outside of overnight and early morning coastal drizzle, the region will remain dry throughout Tuesday. Beginning early Wednesday, another upper level trough will approach the coast and bring with it the potential for light rain/rain showers.
Rainfall amounts have trended downward from previous days. Now, it is looking like the best chance for measurable rainfall to be focused on the North Bay with little to nothing south of the Golden Gate.

By late week, high temperatures start to warm again into the upper 70's to low 80's across the interior as an upper level ridge develops and builds inland. As the upper level trough pushes inland, it is increasingly likely the region will experience a period of offshore flow Thursday night through at least Saturday, especially across the North Bay and East Bay mountains/hills. This will be the result of an "inside slider" pattern setting up across the region which would produce elevated fire weather conditions. However, the operational run of the European model does not show this and is more progressive with the pattern aloft, not developing into a cut off low over the Desert Southwest. Be sure to stay up-to-date with the latest forecast information as there remains some uncertainties in the extended!

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 427 AM PDT Sun Oct 13 2024

A mix of VFR, MVFR and IFR conditions. Some terminals are experiencing some alternation between VFR and MVFR/IFR as the stratus continues to dissolve and rebuild through the night. VFR is expected to return for all terminals, except KMRY between 18-19Z.
Some models show even later clearing near 20Z for some terminals but had lower confidence to include in TAFs at this moment. A mix of MVFR/IFR/LIFR should return for coastal terminals late Sunday night, after 04-06Z.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR but there is a chance for a few moments of IFR through the morning, but had low confidence to include in TAFs.
Clearing to VFR is expected near 19Z but there is a chance that clearing may occur near 20Z. Ceilings may lower to IFR overnight but confidence is low to moderate, with higher confidence that MVFR ceilings will return near 05Z. If IFR occurs, expect near 09Z, early Monday morning. Onshore breezy conditions return by Sunday afternoon then return to moderate overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR currently, but ceilings are consistently lifting and lowering between VFR/MVFR/LIFR through the night. Clearing is expected near 19Z over KSNS while models show that there is a moderate chance that KMRY may not clear and will remain MVFR/IFR/LIFR through the TAF period.

MARINE
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 239 AM PDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Seas will continue to abate through Sunday before building to become rough again by Monday afternoon. Gusty winds south of Point Sur will bring some hazardous conditions Monday afternoon. Long, moderate swell with a period of 13-17 seconds is forecast through Tuesday. A strong storm system will bring near gale force gusts by Wednesday.

BEACHES
Issued at 1133 AM PDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Long period northwesterly swell of around 12 to 15 seconds with wave heights approaching 10 feet will briefly translate to a moderate risk of sneaker waves. This will mainly, though not limited to, be for areas across coastal Sonoma and Marin counties late Monday afternoon/early evening. Those planning on heading to beaches should be cognizant of the potential dangers. Check with local officials and lifeguard personnel before recreating in the water.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0- 10 nm.