SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1244 PM PDT Thu Oct 10 2024

High clouds are streaming across the Bay Area as a weak stationary boundary continues to fall apart. This system is not bringing any other noticeable impacts, and the weather is fairly typical through Friday.

For those who like to look up: keep an eye on the sunset as these clouds should hang on long enough to enhance it. Overnight, a severe geomagnetic storm is bringing a rare chance for aurora sighting as far south as Northern California tonight, according to the Space Weather Prediction Center. North of the Monterey Bay, the high clouds should be decreasing, and shouldn't cause too much issue before the morning marine layer stratus rolls in.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1244 PM PDT Thu Oct 10 2024

By early Saturday morning, an approaching cold front will bring a good chance for light rain, particularly in the North Bay where 1/4" is possible. San Francisco should stay under 1/10", but the low clouds will likely impact some Fleet Week air shows. I would shoot for the Friday show if possible. The total accumulation forecast has gone down a hair, but we will have to wait another 24 hours for more of the high resolution guidance to take a swing.

After the front passes, some cooler air aloft could support a few isolated showers on Sunday, but it doesn't look very impressive.
The sun should try to peek back out Sunday afternoon. An active long wave pattern will allow ridging to rebuild Monday-Tuesday.
causing a brief rebound in temperatures. While the uncertainty starts to balloon, there is an increasing chance of a deeper trough with a better moisture tap bringing more widespread rain on Wednesday or so.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 PM PDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Satellite showing stratus is already rebuilding along the coast with a slight push inland. Therefore, expect a mix of IFR/LIFR conditions tonight over Monterey Bay and North Bay terminals and MVFR conditions over KOAK. Moderate confidence on timing of KOAK ceilings, but models have ceilings arriving near 10Z. General onshore winds have diminished to variable and light to moderate.
Onshore winds will rebuild to breezy Friday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...Moderate confidence that VFR will prevail through the TAF period. There is a chance for MVFR/IFR ceilings to develop near the terminals after 10Z but models show widespread disagreement and low possibility. Therefore, MVFR/IFR were left out the TAFs at this moment. Onshore winds will rebuild by Friday afternoon with a chance of gusty winds up to 20 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR for the moment but ceilings are expect to build near 07-08Z, which will bring IFR/LIFR conditions tonight.
Exact visibility is a bit uncertain as some models show lower than 1SM visibility tonight, which will be closely monitored for any necessary amendments. Clearing back to VFR will occur near 16-17Z.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1029 PM PDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Light to gentle northwest winds continue, but are expected to become more moderate and shift southwesterly late Friday into Saturday as an upper level low approaches the Pacific Northwest.
This system will bring locally breezy conditions and increased precipitation chances over the coastal waters, particularly the northern waters, late Friday through early Sunday. Winds will weaken and turn northwesterly on Sunday, gradually building to a fresh breeze by mid week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...None.