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Sample Forecast for Sausalito, CA

September 12, 2024 10:39 PM PDT (05:39 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:48 AM   Sunset 7:22 PM
Moonrise 3:11 PM   Moonset 12:00 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 815 Pm Pdt Thu Sep 12 2024

Tonight - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.

Fri - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.

Fri night - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.

Sat - SW wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less.

Sat night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.

Sun - SW wind 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less.

Sun night - W wind 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.

Mon - W wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.

Mon night - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.

Tue - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.

Tue night - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.

PZZ500 815 Pm Pdt Thu Sep 12 2024

Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - .
gusty northwest winds will continue into the weekend, including breezy onshore winds across the bays each afternoon and evening. An unseasonably strong upper level low pressure system arrives from the northwest Sunday, with possibly another on its heels arriving by the middle of next week. These systems will bring a slight chance to chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sausalito, CA
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Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS66 KMTR 130435 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 935 PM PDT Thu Sep 12 2024

New UPDATE, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1238 PM PDT Thu Sep 12 2024

An abbreviated warming trend will persist through Saturday with relatively benign weather. By Sunday, an early jet stream dip will bring a strong low pressure system and a substantial pattern change. Expect cooler temperatures, gusty winds and more cloud cover. There's even a chance for rain and thunderstorms next week.

UPDATE
Issued at 935 PM PDT Thu Sep 12 2024

The northerly pressure gradient ACV-SFO has slowly increased today to currently 5 mb, while the SFO-SAC pressure gradient (onshore wind)
has leveled off to a little less than 2 mb. Evening satellite imagery shows a clear sky with exception of a couple small patches of stratus and/or fog forming on the coastline. Drier conditions have arrived at the surface per lower dew point temperatures and the evening Oakland upper air sounding showed a precipitable water at 0.60", a little lower than this morning. Thus, there's good outgoing radiative cooling potential tonight and early Friday morning for coastal stratus and/or fog to redevelop. The lower level temperature inversion is otherwise present, a little more compressed and stronger which will slow air temperatures from lowering much in the hills and mountains overnight.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1238 PM PDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Today will bring near seasonable temperatures and gusty winds in the afternoon and evening, particularly through gaps and passes.
Tomorrow will be slightly warmer and the warmest day of the week as the low-amplitude ridge reaches its peak.

While fire concerns are overall on a downward trend due to cooler conditions and increased relative humidities, fuels are still conducive for large fires. Northerly/offshore winds will prevail through the overnight and morning hours in the higher elevations resulting in further warming and drying of fuels. In fact, a few stations briefly observed Red Flag criteria this morning; however the temporal requirement of eight hours was not met. In the past two days alone there have been two new fire starts in the East Bay. An important reminder to remain vigilant when it comes to exercising fire safety as the region is very much in the thick of fire season.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1238 PM PDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Saturday will be quite nice. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals inland, and a few degrees cooler than normal at the coast where clouds may linger all day. That puts us in the 60s at the coast and mid 80s inland. Winds will be light in the morning and moderate in the afternoon.

Everything changes on Sunday. Models are in good agreement that an early jet stream dip will reach central California. By Monday morning the 500 mb height may drop to a level never recorded in the month of September. The GFS, ECMWF, and their respective ensemble means all have the 500 mb height dropping between 5,550m and 5,600m. That puts us between the 99.5% and 100% (lowest on record) for all Oakland balloon launches in the month of September (roughly 4,600 samples going back to 1948). While that sounds extreme, it's important to add that this wouldn't be nearly as unusual in Winter. If we compare to all January soundings, the forecasted 500 mb height would only fall between the lowest 74 and 85 percentile. So it's the fact that this is happening in September that's out of the ordinary.

Lower than normal temperatures starting Sunday are virtually guaranteed. There will also be gusty winds both Sunday and Monday, especially as the cold front moves through. There is a 25-50% chance of rain, and that has been increasing over the last couple days. It's worth noting that there is still only a 5% chance of exceeding 1/10th of an inch, so we're not expecting a washout.
Then we get to thunderstorm potential. The ingredients are there through the day Monday with cold air aloft, good daytime heating (longer and more direct sunlight compared to winter), and some elevated bands of moisture. The models are finally starting to show some CAPE, but it's less than 25 J/kg right now. Not too impressive. The NBM gave us around a 10% chance of thunderstorms Monday, and that seems reasonable before the higher resolution guidance starts to reach the event. While the probability is currently low, there is a scenario where the cold front moves through overnight, the clouds clear during the morning and the moisture plume lines up with a post-frontal trough. That gives us instability, moisture and a trigger that could generate a few thunderstorms through the day Monday.

That's not the end of the fun. Continued meridional flow of the jet stream will bring a reinforcing trough and renewed rain chanced mid-week. This system will have more moisture to tap into compared to Monday, but the dynamics don't look as strong.
Everything looks to clear up by next weekend, but the uncertainty really starts to balloon so don't hold me to that.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 PM PDT Thu Sep 12 2024

24 hour trends show for the most part warmer and drier conditions across the forecast area late this afternoon. VFR prevails per visible satellite imagery and surface observations. The marine layer depth varies from a few hundred feet to near 1000 feet per profilers and surface observations. Plentiful diurnal mixing has mixed out the coastal stratus and fog from earlier today.

Presently we are cycling through lower surface dew point temps (less water vapor) on northwest winds, though coastal dew point temps are still within a few degrees Fahrenheit of sea surface temps. With radiative cooling commencing tonight and either neutral to gradual strengthening of the lower to mid level thermal ridge, stability and a slight compression of the marine layer will result in areas of LIFR-IFR in coastal stratus and fog. A few inland patches of low lying fog may develop under radiative cooling as well. Stratus and fog mixes out by late Friday morning, otherwise VFR for Friday afternoon and early evening.

Vicinity of SFO...Near high confidence VFR prevails through the evening, west wind near 20 knots with a few higher gusts to 25 knots. Low to moderate confidence VFR for the rest of tonight and Friday. West wind decreasing to 5 to 10 knots tonight and Friday morning, shifting to light northeast wind Friday morning then shifting to northwest 20z Friday and increasing to 15 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Moderate to high confidence VFR prevails through early to mid evening, satellite imagery shows upstream conditions also VFR. After sunset radiative cooling will result in patches of IFR stratus and fog which may near the terminals by late evening and/or later overnight into Friday morning. For now 00z TAFs advertise VFR, will amend as needed if stratus and/or fog patches develop quicker than models forecast.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 912 PM PDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Gusty northwest winds will continue into the weekend, including breezy onshore winds across the bays each afternoon and evening.
An unseasonably strong upper level low pressure system arrives from the northwest Sunday, with possibly another on its heels arriving by the middle of next week. These systems will bring a slight chance to chance of showers.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
FTPC1 - 9414290 - San Francisco, CA 1 mi51 minWSW 6G8 57°F 29.78
PXOC1 - 9414311 - San Francisco (Pier 1), CA 4 mi51 minSW 1.9G2.9 60°F 29.75
PXSC1 4 mi51 min 61°F
TIBC1 - Tiburon Pier, San Francisco Bay, CA 5 mi115 minS 1.9 60°F 29.7452°F
OKXC1 - 9414776 - Oakland (Berth 34), CA 7 mi51 minSSW 5.1G6 61°F 29.78
OMHC1 - 9414769 - Oakland Middle Harbor Met, CA 7 mi51 minSW 6G8
PPXC1 - 9414847 - Richmond (Point Potrero), CA 8 mi51 minS 11G13 59°F 29.79
RCMC1 - 9414863 - Richmond, CA 8 mi51 minSSE 4.1G5.1 62°F 65°F29.77
46237 - San Francisco Bar, CA (142) 9 mi69 min 55°F 56°F6 ft
AAMC1 - 9414750 - Alameda, CA 9 mi51 minWSW 8G9.9 60°F 69°F29.79
LNDC1 10 mi51 minSW 5.1G6 61°F 29.78
DPXC1 - 9415141 - Davis Point, San Pablo Bay, CA 19 mi51 minWSW 1.9G4.1 69°F 29.75
46026 - SAN FRANCISCO - 18NM West of San Francisco, CA 21 mi59 min 56°F7 ft
MZXC1 - 9415102 - Martinez-Amorco CA 23 mi51 minWNW 4.1G5.1 70°F 70°F29.76
UPBC1 23 mi51 minWNW 6G7
RTYC1 - 9414523 - Redwood City, CA 25 mi51 minWNW 4.1G6 63°F 73°F29.78
PCOC1 - 9415144 - Port Chicago, CA 28 mi51 minSW 8G8.9 70°F 29.75
PRYC1 - 9415020 - Point Reyes, CA 30 mi51 min 29.79
PSBC1 - 9415115 - Pittsburg (Suisun Bay), CA 34 mi51 minWNW 8G9.9 72°F 29.74
SFXC1 - San Francisco Bay Reserve, CA 35 mi114 minW 5.1 65°F 29.7452°F
1801593 39 mi129 minNW 17G20 59°F 59°F8 ft29.8056°F


Wind History for San Francisco, CA
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current for San Francisco, California
   
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San Francisco
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Thu -- 12:12 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:15 AM PDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:24 AM PDT     4.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:02 PM PDT     3.68 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:10 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:56 PM PDT     5.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:21 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

San Francisco, California, Tide feet
12
am
0.8
1
am
0.5
2
am
0.6
3
am
1
4
am
1.6
5
am
2.2
6
am
2.9
7
am
3.5
8
am
3.9
9
am
4.1
10
am
4.1
11
am
4
12
pm
3.8
1
pm
3.7
2
pm
3.8
3
pm
4.1
4
pm
4.5
5
pm
5
6
pm
5.4
7
pm
5.6
8
pm
5.3
9
pm
4.7
10
pm
3.6
11
pm
2.5


Tide / Current for Golden Gate Bridge .8 mi E ., San Francisco Bay, California Current
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Golden Gate Bridge .8 mi E .
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Thu -- 12:12 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:34 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:40 AM PDT     2.03 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:49 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:09 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:14 PM PDT     -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:08 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:10 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:01 PM PDT     1.27 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:21 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:36 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Golden Gate Bridge .8 mi E ., San Francisco Bay, California Current, knots
12
am
-2.3
1
am
-1.8
2
am
-1.2
3
am
-0.5
4
am
0.5
5
am
1.4
6
am
1.9
7
am
2
8
am
1.7
9
am
1.1
10
am
0.2
11
am
-0.5
12
pm
-0.7
1
pm
-0.6
2
pm
-0.3
3
pm
-0
4
pm
0.5
5
pm
1
6
pm
1.3
7
pm
1
8
pm
0.5
9
pm
-0.3
10
pm
-1.1
11
pm
-1.9


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Central West Coast   
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San Francisco Bay Area, CA,




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