SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 151 AM PDT Fri Oct 11 2024

Fairly quite weather through today with an increase in clouds as an upper level low approaches the coast. Temperatures will generally range from the upper 70's to mid 80's across the interior, with low- to-mid 70's just inland, and 60's near the coast. These temperatures will generally be near seasonal averages.

Tonight, expecting increased moisture as the upper level low nears the coast with possible post frontal drizzle and/or light rain. A modest marine layer will promote low clouds to spread inland into the coastal adjacent valleys. However, temperatures will remain in the upper 40's to mid 50's across much of the region.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 151 AM PDT Fri Oct 11 2024

Light rain will spread into the North Bay early Saturday morning and spread southward throughout the morning and into the afternoon.
Rainfall amounts will be greatest over the North Bay with coastal areas of Sonoma and Marin counties picking up between 0.15" and 0.30" with less than 0.10" for Napa and San Francisco counties.
Elsewhere, trace amounts to around 0.05" will be possible in the Santa Cruz Mountains and Monterey Bay region.

From previous forecaster: "After the front passes, some cooler air aloft could support a few isolated showers on Sunday, but it doesn't look very impressive. The sun should try to peek back out Sunday afternoon. An active long wave pattern will allow ridging to rebuild Monday-Tuesday causing a brief rebound in temperatures. While the uncertainty starts to balloon, there is an increasing chance of a deeper trough with a better moisture tap bringing more widespread rain on Wednesday or so."



AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 PM PDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Satellite showing stratus is already rebuilding along the coast with a slight push inland. Therefore, expect a mix of IFR/LIFR conditions tonight over Monterey Bay and North Bay terminals and MVFR conditions over KOAK. Moderate confidence on timing of KOAK ceilings, but models have ceilings arriving near 10Z. General onshore winds have diminished to variable and light to moderate.
Onshore winds will rebuild to breezy Friday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...Moderate confidence that VFR will prevail through the TAF period. There is a chance for MVFR/IFR ceilings to develop near the terminals after 10Z but models show widespread disagreement and low possibility. Therefore, MVFR/IFR were left out the TAFs at this moment. Onshore winds will rebuild by Friday afternoon with a chance of gusty winds up to 20 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR for the moment but ceilings are expect to build near 07-08Z, which will bring IFR/LIFR conditions tonight.
Exact visibility is a bit uncertain as some models show lower than 1SM visibility tonight, which will be closely monitored for any necessary amendments. Clearing back to VFR will occur near 16-17Z.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1029 PM PDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Light to gentle northwest winds continue, but are expected to become more moderate and shift southwesterly late Friday into Saturday as an upper level low approaches the Pacific Northwest.
This system will bring locally breezy conditions and increased precipitation chances over the coastal waters, particularly the northern waters, late Friday through early Sunday. Winds will weaken and turn northwesterly on Sunday, gradually building to a fresh breeze by mid week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...None.