Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kissee Mills, MO
June 2, 2024 4:52 PM CDT (21:52 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:52 AM Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 2:09 AM Moonset 3:27 PM |
Area Discussion for - Springfield, MO
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FXUS63 KSGF 021912 AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 212 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm and muggy summer-like pattern into midweek with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Highest chance for thunderstorms (greater than 50%) is currently Monday into Tuesday night. Severe threat remains marginal however a slight risk for excessive rainfall exists.
- A pattern change will occur late in the week with near normal temperatures and lower rain chances (less than 30 percent)
however confidence is low with the details of this pattern shift.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show generally westerly flow over the CONUS with a mid/upper level trough axis over the Rockies. There are some embedded more mesoscale vorticity which were aiding in the thunderstorm complex over the southern plains. Regional radar shows a linear complex stretching from central OK into north TX along the Red River. Surface based CAPES have risen into the 3500-4000 j/kg range over our far western CWA, but we have some capping over the area which is keeping any vertical development at bay. Temperatures were ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s with dew points from the mid to upper 60s.
Tonight: A frontal boundary in the plains along with upper level energy and a low level jet will aid in additional thunderstorm development well to our west. This thunderstorm activity should push east and possibly into our far western CWA towards sunrise.
Most areas of the CWA should remain dry tonight with lows from the mid 50s to low 60s.
Monday: Remnant showers and thunderstorms from the convection to our west tonight will move into the western CWA during the morning. Moisture should continue to increase over the area with PW values increasing into the 1.4 to 1.6" range during the day.
Remnant outflows and/or MCV will be the focus for additional convection during the afternoon as instability increases. Heavy rain will be likely with any storms that develop with a slight chance of excessive rainfall. The stronger storms will also be capable of a damaging wind risk with up to 60 mph winds.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Monday night into Tuesday night: Several waves of energy will push across the area with decent rain chances continuing through the period(50-80%). Given the high moisture content continuing over the area, the excessive rainfall risk will continue. We do have some areas of 1-3" potential through Wednesday, with some LPMM pockets of 4-5". Pinpointing these higher totals with the mesoscale features will be difficult, however the potential will be there.
Wednesday - Saturday: An upper level wave should push through early Wednesday with the main area of rain exiting to the east.
High pressure will move into the area behind the surface front with a cooler and drier air mass along with northwesterly flow aloft. Upper level high pressure to our southwest and the main low to our northeast should keep us in a northwesterly pattern into the weekend. There are some differences in model solutions, but this setup should keep pops generally on the low side (30% or less) through Saturday. Temperatures will be seasonal for this time of year through the period.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Late in the period, some scattered thunderstorms will be possible, but at this time confidence of this occurring at the TAF sites is less than 30 percent, so we are not including the 18z TAFS.
Additional thunderstorm development will be possible outside of this TAF period along any remnant boundaries or upper level MCV's.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 212 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm and muggy summer-like pattern into midweek with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Highest chance for thunderstorms (greater than 50%) is currently Monday into Tuesday night. Severe threat remains marginal however a slight risk for excessive rainfall exists.
- A pattern change will occur late in the week with near normal temperatures and lower rain chances (less than 30 percent)
however confidence is low with the details of this pattern shift.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show generally westerly flow over the CONUS with a mid/upper level trough axis over the Rockies. There are some embedded more mesoscale vorticity which were aiding in the thunderstorm complex over the southern plains. Regional radar shows a linear complex stretching from central OK into north TX along the Red River. Surface based CAPES have risen into the 3500-4000 j/kg range over our far western CWA, but we have some capping over the area which is keeping any vertical development at bay. Temperatures were ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s with dew points from the mid to upper 60s.
Tonight: A frontal boundary in the plains along with upper level energy and a low level jet will aid in additional thunderstorm development well to our west. This thunderstorm activity should push east and possibly into our far western CWA towards sunrise.
Most areas of the CWA should remain dry tonight with lows from the mid 50s to low 60s.
Monday: Remnant showers and thunderstorms from the convection to our west tonight will move into the western CWA during the morning. Moisture should continue to increase over the area with PW values increasing into the 1.4 to 1.6" range during the day.
Remnant outflows and/or MCV will be the focus for additional convection during the afternoon as instability increases. Heavy rain will be likely with any storms that develop with a slight chance of excessive rainfall. The stronger storms will also be capable of a damaging wind risk with up to 60 mph winds.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Monday night into Tuesday night: Several waves of energy will push across the area with decent rain chances continuing through the period(50-80%). Given the high moisture content continuing over the area, the excessive rainfall risk will continue. We do have some areas of 1-3" potential through Wednesday, with some LPMM pockets of 4-5". Pinpointing these higher totals with the mesoscale features will be difficult, however the potential will be there.
Wednesday - Saturday: An upper level wave should push through early Wednesday with the main area of rain exiting to the east.
High pressure will move into the area behind the surface front with a cooler and drier air mass along with northwesterly flow aloft. Upper level high pressure to our southwest and the main low to our northeast should keep us in a northwesterly pattern into the weekend. There are some differences in model solutions, but this setup should keep pops generally on the low side (30% or less) through Saturday. Temperatures will be seasonal for this time of year through the period.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Late in the period, some scattered thunderstorms will be possible, but at this time confidence of this occurring at the TAF sites is less than 30 percent, so we are not including the 18z TAFS.
Additional thunderstorm development will be possible outside of this TAF period along any remnant boundaries or upper level MCV's.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBBG BRANSON,MO | 14 sm | 67 min | ESE 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 81°F | 72°F | 74% | 29.97 | |
| KFWB BRANSON WEST MUNI EMERSON FIELD,MO | 21 sm | 17 min | ESE 09G15 | 10 sm | Clear | 81°F | 70°F | 70% | 29.93 |
Springfield, MO,
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