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FXUS65 KBOU 022050 AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 250 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A couple severe storms over the northeast corner of the state through early evening.

- Scattered storms through early evening, possibly as far south as I-70.

- Summer heat through most of this week, with a few 90 degree readings over the plains. Breezy but a little cooler Tuesday.

- Chance of showers and storms for Monday night

- Return to more normal temperatures and a chance of storms towards next weekend

SHORT TERM /Through Monday/
Issued at 231 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Lift from the wave tracking across the region is producing strong to severe thunderstorms over southern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Additional thunderstorms extend west-southwest into north central Colorado. As these storms progress eastward, they will encounter a more moist and unstable airmass. MLCAPE has climbed to 1000-2000J/kg over the northeast plains and as storms move into and/or form over the area, they should become severe with large hail (tennis ball size) and damaging winds. Easterly winds are prevailing across much of northeast Colorado and are helping to retain low level moisture. Earlier model runs showed dry gusty west winds for most of the area and not these northeast winds, thus forecast confidence is on the low side and expect convection a little more south. The 18Z NAM shows 400-800 J/kg with upper 30s dew points, so we could see some stronger storms as far south of I-70. By mid to late evening, expect the storms to progress east of the area with dry conditions then in place for the night.

For Monday, weak ridging in the westerly flow will prevail. It will be a warm day with highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s across northeast Colorado. With dew points in the 30s and CAPE less than 300 J/kg, expect dry conditions, though there should be high-based cumulus clouds with virga and perhaps dry microbursts.
Better chance for showers and storms will come Monday night as a short wave trough tracks across the region.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Models have a weak upper trough move across the CWA Monday night into Tuesday morning. This feature looks a bit stronger than it did yesterday. The QG fields show weak upward vertical velocity for the CWA Monday night, then weak downward motion Tuesday.
There is neutral energy progged Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The low level pressure and wind fields show downsloping surface winds to dominate both Tuesday and Wednesday, with drainage patterns during the nights.

For moisture, precipitable water values are in the 0.50 to 1.10 inch range over the CWA Monday night. CAPE is just fair Monday evening, and mainly just over the eastern half of the plains. The northern half of the CWA will have the highest pops, with 30-50%s in the mountains and 30-40%s over the northeast corner. For Tuesday through Wednesday night, moisture dries out and there is no CAPE progged. Will keep those periods dry. Of note, cross sections show a bit of a mountain wave set-up later Monday night into Tuesday after the upper trough passes, so I will make sure to beef-up the downsloping winds a bit along and east of the divide in the mountains and foothills.

For temperatures, Tuesday's highs are a tad cooler than Monday's, but Wedensday's highs are 1-4 C warmer. So "now" it looks like the first Denver 90 degree F reading will be on Wednesday?

For that later days, Thursday through Sunday, models have upper ridging in control of Thursday's weather. By Friday, continuing through the weekend, the upper ridge gets pushed a bit west, at least enough to allow for cooler air to get into the CWA
Precipitable water values and surface dew points are pretty high.
Instability is decent too. Scattered pops seem reasonable; perhaps even higher, but that is still quite a few days away. Temperatures could cool to below seasonal normals for highs on Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/
Issued at 1154 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Generally light northerly winds are expected at DEN through 19-20Z. A good amount of uncertainty if gusty west-northwest winds will form after 20Z ahead of a strong northerly wind shift. At APA, gusty west-southwest winds have formed, but are expected to stay south of DEN. The cold front/outflow boundary races south across the Denver area 22-23Z bringing gusty north winds to 35 knots. Behind it, isolated showers are expected to form with a slight chance (~10%) for a thunderstorm. Brief light/moderate rain and gusty winds will be possible with activity.
North/northeast winds linger into 00-03Z window and then turn clockwise and settle a southerly direction around 06Z.

For Monday, light winds prevail through 18-20Z. A round of high- based showers and thunderstorms are expected after 20Z. Gusty outflow winds will be common and are expected to produce wind shifts at the Denver airports.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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