Sunrise 5:13 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 2:39 AM   Moonset 4:08 PM

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LMZ080 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 307 Pm Cdt Sun Jun 2 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Tonight - North winds 5 to 10 kt veering to southeast. Patchy fog possible. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 1 to 3 ft. Monday night - South winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Thursday - West winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Friday - Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 022304 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 704 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and slightly less humid through Monday.

- Low confidence chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday.

- More widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Cooler with lingering showers Thursday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

An overall active pattern is expected through the forecast period with brief lulls in between each key feature.

A "cool" front has nearly cleared the forecast area with dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60 in its wake and low to mid 60s ahead of it. Cloud cover has been stubborn to depart even with increasing subsidence. Sufficient convergence and modest instability has allowed for a few showers to develop in far southeast area which will quickly exit by 4 pm. The cloud cover sticking around leads to a more uncertain forecast in whether fog will develop across the area. Considered adding a patchy fog mention given cross-over temps should be exceeded and plenty of low level moisture remains. Will defer to the evening shift to monitor trends.

A northern stream closed low, currently located off the NW US coast, will move east through the first half of the week, brining an eventual shift in our pattern. Prior to that, shower/storm chances will be modulated by poorly modeled, subtle disturbances that may largely be convectively induced (MCVs). Greatest plume of higher theta-e air will reside just to our west with the nose of it intruding on far NW areas Monday evening before spreading slowly east Tuesday. Models handle convective chances in multiple ways, none of which seem to suggest more than chc pops Mon night into Tuesday with no threat for severe weather.

Models are in agreement on the aforementioned upper level low moving to northern ND by 00Z Wed with the longwave trough digging further into Great Lakes by 18Z Wed. The closed low itself will actual shift northward somewhat, keeping the strongest dynamics well removed from the area. A cold front is still expected to sweep through Tuesday night into Wednesday with good chances for what should be non-severe showers and thunderstorms. Abundant moisture will lead to pockets of heavy rainfall with hydro trends needing to be monitored.

Beyond Wednesday, medium range models then diverge on handling of the southward shift of the upper low over the Great Lakes through the remainder of the period. These discrepancies are posing challenges in not only forecasted temperatures but timing of periodic shower chances. The result is a splattering of slgt chc to chc pops through the end of the forecast with highs near or below normal.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 655 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

With both TAF sites now behind the cool frontal passage, winds have trended lower and cigs have begun to lift and KSBN already has clearing skies. With better radiational cooling conditions and still fairly moist low levels, dew points in upper 50s currently, overnight even with some drier air moving into the region dew point depressions will be small. Some patchy ground fog will be possible overnight and did continue to message vsbys down to around 3SM in mist. However, confidence in coverage is lacking. VFR conditions expected after 13-14z Mon for both TAF sites.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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