Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Michigan Beach, MI
June 2, 2024 6:55 PM EDT (22:55 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:09 AM Sunset 9:15 PM Moonrise 2:38 AM Moonset 4:06 PM |
LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 443 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Through early evening - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Areas of fog. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight - Northeast winds around 5 knots veering southeast after midnight. Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday - South winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Areas of fog. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots veering west. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday - West winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ800
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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 021902 AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 302 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry and slightly less humid through Monday.
- Low confidence chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday.
- More widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday.
- Cooler with lingering showers Thursday into the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
An overall active pattern is expected through the forecast period with brief lulls in between each key feature.
A "cool" front has nearly cleared the forecast area with dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60 in its wake and low to mid 60s ahead of it. Cloud cover has been stubborn to depart even with increasing subsidence. Sufficient convergence and modest instability has allowed for a few showers to develop in far southeast area which will quickly exit by 4 pm. The cloud cover sticking around leads to a more uncertain forecast in whether fog will develop across the area. Considered adding a patchy fog mention given cross-over temps should be exceeded and plenty of low level moisture remains. Will defer to the evening shift to monitor trends.
A northern stream closed low, currently located off the NW US coast, will move east through the first half of the week, brining an eventual shift in our pattern. Prior to that, shower/storm chances will be modulated by poorly modeled, subtle disturbances that may largely be convectively induced (MCVs). Greatest plume of higher theta-e air will reside just to our west with the nose of it intruding on far NW areas Monday evening before spreading slowly east Tuesday. Models handle convective chances in multiple ways, none of which seem to suggest more than chc pops Mon night into Tuesday with no threat for severe weather.
Models are in agreement on the aforementioned upper level low moving to northern ND by 00Z Wed with the longwave trough digging further into Great Lakes by 18Z Wed. The closed low itself will actual shift northward somewhat, keeping the strongest dynamics well removed from the area. A cold front is still expected to sweep through Tuesday night into Wednesday with good chances for what should be non-severe showers and thunderstorms. Abundant moisture will lead to pockets of heavy rainfall with hydro trends needing to be monitored.
Beyond Wednesday, medium range models then diverge on handling of the southward shift of the upper low over the Great Lakes through the remainder of the period. These discrepancies are posing challenges in not only forecasted temperatures but timing of periodic shower chances. The result is a splattering of slgt chc to chc pops through the end of the forecast with highs near or below normal.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
As the cold front is now almost through our entire forecast area, low stratus will slowly continue to lift through the afternoon with VFR expected by late afternoon and early evening.
The TAFs will likely need amendments when this occurs, because for now, have left MVFR ceilings in there. There is a lot of lingering moisture near the ground, and as clouds dissipate and winds diminish tonight, fog will be possible at KSBN and KFWA.
Have added a TEMPO group from 09Z to 13Z for both TAF sites given this possibility. Dry conditions and VFR then return for most of the day Monday.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 302 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry and slightly less humid through Monday.
- Low confidence chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday.
- More widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday.
- Cooler with lingering showers Thursday into the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
An overall active pattern is expected through the forecast period with brief lulls in between each key feature.
A "cool" front has nearly cleared the forecast area with dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60 in its wake and low to mid 60s ahead of it. Cloud cover has been stubborn to depart even with increasing subsidence. Sufficient convergence and modest instability has allowed for a few showers to develop in far southeast area which will quickly exit by 4 pm. The cloud cover sticking around leads to a more uncertain forecast in whether fog will develop across the area. Considered adding a patchy fog mention given cross-over temps should be exceeded and plenty of low level moisture remains. Will defer to the evening shift to monitor trends.
A northern stream closed low, currently located off the NW US coast, will move east through the first half of the week, brining an eventual shift in our pattern. Prior to that, shower/storm chances will be modulated by poorly modeled, subtle disturbances that may largely be convectively induced (MCVs). Greatest plume of higher theta-e air will reside just to our west with the nose of it intruding on far NW areas Monday evening before spreading slowly east Tuesday. Models handle convective chances in multiple ways, none of which seem to suggest more than chc pops Mon night into Tuesday with no threat for severe weather.
Models are in agreement on the aforementioned upper level low moving to northern ND by 00Z Wed with the longwave trough digging further into Great Lakes by 18Z Wed. The closed low itself will actual shift northward somewhat, keeping the strongest dynamics well removed from the area. A cold front is still expected to sweep through Tuesday night into Wednesday with good chances for what should be non-severe showers and thunderstorms. Abundant moisture will lead to pockets of heavy rainfall with hydro trends needing to be monitored.
Beyond Wednesday, medium range models then diverge on handling of the southward shift of the upper low over the Great Lakes through the remainder of the period. These discrepancies are posing challenges in not only forecasted temperatures but timing of periodic shower chances. The result is a splattering of slgt chc to chc pops through the end of the forecast with highs near or below normal.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
As the cold front is now almost through our entire forecast area, low stratus will slowly continue to lift through the afternoon with VFR expected by late afternoon and early evening.
The TAFs will likely need amendments when this occurs, because for now, have left MVFR ceilings in there. There is a lot of lingering moisture near the ground, and as clouds dissipate and winds diminish tonight, fog will be possible at KSBN and KFWA.
Have added a TEMPO group from 09Z to 13Z for both TAF sites given this possibility. Dry conditions and VFR then return for most of the day Monday.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI | 8 mi | 56 min | W 1.9G | 68°F | 30.03 | |||
| 45168 | 15 mi | 46 min | WSW 3.9G | 57°F | 59°F | 1 ft | 30.01 | 55°F |
| SVNM4 - South Haven, MI | 16 mi | 46 min | S 5.1G | 57°F | ||||
| 45026 - St. Joseph, MI | 18 mi | 46 min | NNW 1.9G | 61°F | 64°F | 1 ft | 30.01 | 55°F |
| 45170 | 41 mi | 46 min | NE 3.9G | 61°F | 1 ft | 29.98 | ||
| HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI | 41 mi | 56 min | WSW 2.9G | 59°F | 57°F | 29.95 | 57°F | |
| MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN | 41 mi | 36 min | E 2.9G | 61°F | 29.98 | 57°F | ||
| 45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI | 43 mi | 46 min | WSW 3.9G | 59°F | 56°F | 29.99 | 58°F | |
| 45029 | 48 mi | 36 min | W 1.9G | 58°F | 57°F | 1 ft | 58°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBEH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN RGNL,MI | 7 sm | 62 min | WNW 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 57°F | 73% | 29.99 | |
| KLWA SOUTH HAVEN AREA RGNL,MI | 15 sm | 20 min | WNW 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 63°F | 59°F | 88% | 29.99 |
Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,
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