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PZZ133 Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- 257 Am Pdt Sun Jun 2 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am pdt this morning through this evening - .
Today - SE wind 20 to 25 kt. Waves around 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain early this morning, then rain late this morning and afternoon. Tonight - S wind 20 to 25 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 3 ft, then 2 ft or less. Rain.Mon - SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Rain.Mon night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less, then 3 ft. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight. Tue - SE wind 25 to 30 kt, veering to S 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Tue night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less. A chance of showers in the evening. Wed - SW wind around 5 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Wed night - NW wind around 5 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Thu - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Thu night - NW wind 5 to 10 kt, easing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less.

PZZ100 257 Am Pdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters - A strong front will approach the waters today and move onshore by early Monday morning. Another front is expected to arrive on Tuesday. High pressure will then build back into the coastal waters on Wednesday and persist into Thursday.

FXUS66 KSEW 021635 AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 934 AM PDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Atmospheric river pattern over Western Washington today will continue through Tuesday, consisting of two separate waves of heavier rain moving through the area. The first will continue until early Monday morning and the second starting Monday evening and continuing into Tuesday. This second wave will be weaker than the first. Upper level ridging builds over the area Wednesday and will remain in place through at least the weekend, bringing dry and much warmer weather to the region.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Not surprisingly, W WA pretty socked in with clouds per satellite imagery given the incoming wet system. Radar showing slow and steady eastward progress of initial front which is currently just a little inland from the coastline...however, there are some patches of pre-frontal showers resulting in some light rainfall such as Everett, Port Townsend, Shelton and Port Angeles. The transition to more consistent rainfall still looks to occur in the late morning hours, possibly early afternoon for locations east of the Sound. Forecast continues to be on track, so see no reason for any morning updates. Will reiterate key points for the short term forecast period before engaging in more detailed discussion.

Key Messages for Upcoming Active Weather Pattern

* A late season atmospheric river pattern will develop today and continue with breaks through Tuesday.

* Heavy rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches in the mountains, with possible 6 inch event totals over the southern slopes of the Olympics, and 2 to 4 inches along the coast.

* Moderate to heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across the lowlands during this timeframe.

* Snow levels above 6500 feet will promote additional runoff with several area rivers flowing out of the Cascades forecast to enter action or even minor flood stage. A Flood Watch remains in effect across portions of Western Washington.

The front currently moving in is only the first of two systems that are expected throughout this event. Even though the front will pass through W WA and move into E WA by late this afternoon/early this evening, the parent upper level low moves in quickly thereafter, ensuring persistent wet conditions tonight and much of Monday.
Latest deterministic forecasts having a difficult time showing it, but ensembles clearly suggest perhaps a little bit of a break...or at the very least an easing up of activity...come Monday evening or Monday night, as there is the tiniest of gaps between the exiting low and the next incoming front. That is not to say that the CWA will dry out, but at the very least will see a dip in PoPs for a narrow 6-8 hour window. The next frontal system makes its way into W WA late Monday night/early Tuesday morning and will continue for much of the day before tapering off Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. Does not appear to be as much QPF with this system as with the first one but this one-two punch of AR-style systems will still merit keeping an eye on hydro concerns...which will be discussed below. Also meriting vigilance will be burn scars within the area.
Although not expecting any significant activity there at this time, continued monitoring will be necessary should precip amounts or rates exceed those currently forecast. All of that said, the inherited Flood Watch will remain in place without any alteration.

Along with precip, could see some breezy to locally windy conditions with occasional gusts throughout the short term with each of these frontal passages. Wind speeds do not look to merit any headlines at this time, however this combination of heavy rains and increased winds may allow for isolated instances of either branches or entire trees being felled. Caution is encouraged.

As would be expected, temps will take a bit of a hit today when compared to yesterday, with most locations only getting into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs cool even further Monday as most locations will sit in the upper 50s with the occasional spot hitting 60. A warming trend will kick off on Tuesday with highs returning to the lower 60s. Overnight lows will be pretty static, with both nights in the upper 40s to lower 50s...so not much of a diurnal spread expected.

18

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
From Previous Discussion...In a version of weather whiplash, an upper level ridge builds over the area Wednesday with the ridge remaining in place through the weekend giving Western Washington dry and increasing warmer weather as we get to the weekend. 500 mb heights rising into the lower 580 dms by Friday.
Low level flow never turns strongly offshore and model 850 mb winds don't turn easterly for much of the period Friday and Saturday. There are a few ensemble solutions that put highs well into the 80s Saturday but most of the solutions are are in the lower to mid 80s. With the lack of strong offshore flow in the models right now will stay with this idea and keep the warmest temperatures Saturday in the mid 80s. Highs Wednesday in the mid 60s to lower 70s with 70s to lower 80s by Friday and the mentioned mid 70s to mid 80s Saturday. Lots of the ensemble solutions are showing an upper level blocking pattern developing over the Eastern Pacific over the weekend. Blocks are hard to break down this time of year. If this pattern does develop Western Washington could be in for the longest dry spell since last August. Felton

AVIATION
Southwesterly flow will persist aloft as an upper level low over the Gulf of Alaska digs southward towards the coast of southern BC today. At the surface, an approaching frontal system will bring periods of moderate to heavy rain, lower ceilings, and gusty winds to the area today. Steady rain is moving into the coastal terminals already and will advance into the Puget Sound terminals by 18z. Southerly surface winds will increase through the mid to late morning hours, with gusts around 25 kt expected.
Widespread MVFR conditions expected for much of the day, with periods of IFR to LIFR possible in moderate to heavy rain. With stronger southerly flow just off the surface and initially weaker surface winds, expect areas of LLWS at many of the terminals until the stronger winds mix down to the surface in a more uniform distribution of speed.

KSEA...Expect predominantly MVFR ceilings with some fluctuations this morning ahead of main rain line. After 18z, steadier rain moves into the terminal area with low ceilings and visibility restrictions expected. Meanwhile, gusty southerly surface winds increase through the afternoon and into the overnight period. LLWS concerns mostly late afternoon with strong low level winds and somewhat weaker winds at the surface, though this concern may fade as surface winds increase toward 00z. Cullen

MARINE
More active conditions commence across the area waters today as a strong frontal system approaches the area. Winds have already started to increase towards small craft strength across the coastal waters this morning. Guidance does still hint at the possibility of a few isolated gusts to gale, especially for the coastal waters south of Point Grenville should a coastal jet develop ahead of the front. Gusts to gale will also be possible in the vicinity of the front, but guidance still suggests that these will be short-lived, with more of the widespread, persistent gales remaining south of Cape Shoalwater. Thus, have maintained the small craft advisories in effect for the coastal waters. Seas will sharply build in response to the winds with this front and will be rather steep today and will persist into Monday.

Small craft advisories also remain in effect for the eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca, as southeasterly winds are expected to ramp up ahead of the front this morning. Expect winds to then transition to westerly in the wake of the frontal passage late tonight into Monday. Though winds look marginal, have also issued an SCA for post- frontal westerlies for the central Strait. May have to extend SCAs with additional pushes expected down the Strait through early this week.

SCAs have also been issued for the Northern Inland Waters and Admiralty Inlet, as latest guidance indicates SCA strength winds should be widespread in these zones. Have held off on Puget Sound for now, but will need to monitor this through the day.

Overall, expect the pattern to remain active through the first half of the week, with yet another frontal system expected to move across the region on Tuesday. Latest guidance suggests the winds with this next system could be stronger, with more widespread gales possible.
Seas are expected to build towards 10-13 ft. Wave periods look to remain rather short, near 8 seconds, and will maintain steep seas at times.

High pressure then looks to build into the coastal waters near midweek for overall calmer conditions the second half of the week.
High pressure will persist into Thursday and looks to interact with lower pressure inland through late in the week. 14

HYDROLOGY
From Previous Discussion...Today through Tuesday forecasted rain totals are still 3 to 5 inches for the Olympics and the Cascades, with the possibility of 6 inch bullseyes along the southwest slopes of the Olympics. Snow levels will be in the 7000 to 8500 foot range for for the first wave of the atmospheric river and just a little lower for the second round. West southwesterly flow aloft favors the heaviest rainfall to be along the southwest slopes of the Olympics and the Central Washington Cascades. Several rivers flowing out of the Central Cascades and Southern Olympics are forecast to reach action stage. The river with the best chance to reach flood stage is the Skokomish River in Mason county. Even with some of the rivers only reaching action stage, these levels would be records for this time of the year. The flood watch for Skagit, Snohomish, King, Pierce, Mason and Lewis county remains in effect.

In addition to the high flows on area rivers, the water temperatures in the rivers continues to be very cold. Most rivers flowing out of the Cascades are still in the mid 40s to lower 50s for water temperature. Felton

CLIMATE
Here are some daily rainfall records for around the area today, Seattle 0.48 inches in 2001, Olympia 0.68 inches in 2010, Bellingham 0.48 inches in 1962, Quillayute 1.63 inches in 2010 and Hoquiam 1.35 inches in 1962. Felton

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Bellevue and Vicinity- East Puget Sound Lowlands-Everett and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-Olympics-Seattle and Vicinity-Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-West Slopes North Cascades and Passes-West Slopes North Central Cascades and Passes-West Slopes South Central Cascades and Passes- Western Skagit County.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Monday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Monday for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Admiralty Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

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Bellingham
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Sun -- 01:44 AM PDT     8.74 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:57 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:02 AM PDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:27 PM PDT     6.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:49 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:16 PM PDT     4.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bellingham, Washington (3), Tide feet

Bellingham
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Sun -- 01:28 AM PDT     9.18 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:57 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:54 AM PDT     1.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:46 PM PDT     6.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:49 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:47 PM PDT     5.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bellingham, Washington, Tide feet

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