Sunrise 5:26 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 2:49 AM   Moonset 4:12 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 317 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming around 5 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers early this evening, then chance of showers late this evening and overnight. Mon - W winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds, becoming se 1 ft at 2 seconds. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 2 seconds. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms after midnight. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely with chance of tstms. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers. Fri - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers. Fri night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 317 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure slides south of the area as a weak disturbance moves through tonight and into the beginning of Monday. High pressure then builds back across the area Monday night, lingering through mid- week before heading out into the atlantic for the latter half of the week. A series of frontal system then approaches from the west Thursday through next weekend.

FXUS61 KPHI 022038 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 438 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak system approaches for tonight into Monday. High pressure moves in on Monday Night remaining in control through early Wednesday. An upper level low then will move into the Great Lakes, keeping things unsettled into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A weakening shortwave approaches late this afternoon through tonight, rotating around the backside of an upper level low over the north Atlantic. This will bring some scattered showers and perhaps a garden-variety rumble of thunder, but nothing to write home about.
Chances for showers will begin in our western zones around sunset with rain chances increasing to around 30-50% for most of the area after midnight, except a bit higher (around 60 percent) over portions of Delmarva and far southern NJ, where the best chance for thunderstorms overnight are also located. Expect lows mostly in the mid 60s.

A few lingering showers and an isolated thunderstorm across southern NJ and southern Delmarva will clear out Monday morning with a brief dry period for most before another shortwave pivoting around an offshore upper low swings down across the region. Skies are expected to be partly sunny throughout the morning hours and into the early afternoon for much of the region, allowing for modest destabilization ahead of this shortwave. Hi res guidance shows MUCAPE values around the 1000J/kg range by the afternoon. With dew points in the 60s, the ingredients are there for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop by mid afternoon. The severe potential with these storms, however, will remain on the low end with deep layer shear being rather lackluster in the afternoon. With PWAT values in the 1-1.5 inch range, a few good downpours may be possible with a stronger storm, but any flooding concerns will be very localized and brief. High temperatures are forecast to reach the low to mid 80s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
We dry out Monday Night through Tuesday as high pressure nudges in from the north. With the high positioned just offshore, an onshore flow will develop which will result in temperatures in the low to mid 70s near the coast, with upper 70s/low 80s elsewhere. Tuesday Night should be dry, though the high begins to retreat offshore.
Clouds will increase through the night as the next system approaches. Lows will drop into the upper 50s/low 60s.

A shortwave approaches for Wednesday ahead of a large upper level low swinging down from Canada. This will result in some showers and isolated thunderstorms moving through, primarily in the afternoon and evening. Looking at some of the ensembles and deterministic guidance, there really isn't a strong signal for any severe weather as instability looks meager. The same goes for any shear. Thinking the day will be mainly cloudy, with some periods of rain with some rumbles of thunder mixed in. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s/low 80s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Long term period will be marked by unsettled weather due to a closed low moving into the Great Lakes region and meandering through the weekend. This will result in numerous shortwaves rounding the base of the closed low and moving towards our region with several associated frontal systems passing through and an unsettled end of the week and weekend.

The strongest shortwave looks to approach on Thursday, with an associated cold front moving through sometime late in the week. Both the 00z and 12z guidance continues to speed up the timing of the initial from to come through more towards Thursday morning. This would limit the severe potential, compared to if the front come through later in the day. Overall, the signal for severe weather isn't overly strong given the instability currently forecast does not look that impressive. Out ahead of the front, widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms look to develop. Wednesday Night/Thursday time frame has the highest rain chances (around 60-70%). Outside of that window, generally expecting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon/early evening timeframe of Friday through Sunday. PoPs for those days are only around 20-40%, so it is fair to call it unsettled but not a total washout as the upper level hangs around.

Temperatures will hover near or perhaps a touch below normal for early June for the long term period.

AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today (through 00Z)...VFR with increasing mid-high level clouds. Some showers may arrive across RDG/ABE around the 23Z-00Z timeframe. Southwest winds 5-10 knots. High confidence.

Tonight...Clouds lowering but remaining VFR through at least the evening. Some restrictions possible overnight as some showers move in along with lower cigs and the potential for some patchy fog as well. Winds generally SW around 5 knots or less. Moderate confidence.

Monday... VFR much of the time. Chance (25%-40%) of a scattered shower/tstm. Brief period of sub-VFR conditions possible with a stronger storm. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Monday Night...Primarily VFR. Some patchy fog possible (20-30%) at KACY/KMIV.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night...VFR. No significant weather.

Wednesday...Primarily VFR though showers/isolated thunderstorms arriving late in the day could bring some restrictions.

Wednesday Night through Thursday...Restrictions likely (70-80%) with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms moving through.

Thursday Night through Friday...Conditions should lift back to VFR at some point but lingering showers/isolated thunderstorms could result in further restrictions.

MARINE
No marine headlines anticipated through Monday. S to SSW winds 10-15 kts may briefly gust up to 20 kts this evening before diminishing to 5-10 kts by Monday morning where they will linger through the rest of the day. Seas 2-3 feet. A few showers and thunderstorms possible tonight and Monday afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected. Fair weather.

Wednesday Night through Thursday...SCA conditions possible (30-40% chance) with gusts nearing 25 kt. Periods of showers and thunderstorms likely.

Rip Currents...

A LOW risk for the development of rip currents is in place for Monday and Tuesday. While winds turn partially onshore for Monday and then fully onshore for Tuesday, wind speeds will be around 10 MPH, with continuing 1 to 2 foot waves and short to medium period which keeps the overall risk for rip current development low.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers. Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the water.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Red Bank
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Sun -- 01:09 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:37 AM EDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:20 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:14 PM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Red Bank, Navesink River, New Jersey, Tide feet

The Narrows
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Sun -- 01:20 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:46 AM EDT     1.54 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:44 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:02 AM EDT     -2.12 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:30 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:18 PM EDT     1.99 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:27 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:39 PM EDT     -2.23 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current, knots

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