Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 2:33 AM   Moonset 3:41 PM

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FXUS64 KEWX 021943 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 243 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Confidence in shower and thunderstorm chances remains low this afternoon and evening across the region. We will keep a low chance for showers and storms in the forecast out west across far western Val Verde county to account for any activity that develops over the lower Trans-Pecos region. In addition, the complex of storms currently over northwest Texas could survive and make it into portions of the northern Hill Country and nearby I-35 corridor.
Otherwise, look for another warm night with low temperatures mainly in the 70s. On Monday, temperatures continue to nudge upward and we could be close to Heat Advisory thresholds across portions of the Rio Grande plains south of Del Rio into the San Antonio Metro area.
There will also be another low chance for showers and storms across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor north of San Antonio as a weak upper disturbance moves across north Texas.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Rain has basically been removed from consideration in the long term.
A weak perturbation is still shown in the 12Z ECM data for Tuesday afternoon/evening and repeating again Wednesday, but the GFS has trended with the NBM and lowering rain chances to being unworthy of mention. As heights aloft build east into the west half of TX, the H7 winds turn more westerly and remove the moisture that might get have gotten convection going in the northerly flow aloft. Instead, we'll get more sunshine and heating as is shown in the MEX MOS trends for the middle of the week. Highs will likely reach 100 for the SAT area and will potentially get there for the first time this year around Austin. However, we'll stop shy of that forecast as we noted a pretty good amount of cumulative rain totals of 1.5 to over 3 inches in the past 5 days which should consume some of that heating with evapotranspiration. Heat index values already have jumped above 100 degrees over the Coastal Prairies today and this will likely trend higher into advisory levels by Tuesday. Some of the Apparent T values might suggest we get into another excessive heat category, but this may settle out as the air gets drier each day. Pattern-wise, our hottest two days might be Wednesday and Thursday with the mid and upper level ridges parked over Central TX. On Friday, the H7 ridge axis goes east and potentially opens up a deeper marine layer for a temperature trend reversal. However, ridging above this level remains, and we may still see some near heat advisory conditions Friday. Hopefully by this time we begin to see some deeper inland intrusions of the sea breeze which typically makes the evening air much more tolerable. Just outside the 7-day forecast there remains some signs of upper ridge weakening and potential some convective potential, but the patterns with each model run do not show much consistency or agreement with one another.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Clouds continue to lift and VFR will return by 19Z at all sites. Some isolated convection remains possible this afternoon across portions of the Hill Country and nearby I-35 corridor. With coverage remaining very isolated, we will not mention any convection for the I-35 sites.
Farther west at DRT, some isolated convection may approach late this evening. With low confidence this activity makes it to DRT, we will also not mention any convection in the latest forecast. Otherwise, MVFR clouds return late this evening and continue through mid to late morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 77 94 78 96 / 10 10 20 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 94 77 96 / 10 10 20 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 98 77 98 / 0 10 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 75 91 75 93 / 10 10 20 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 81 103 80 106 / 10 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 92 76 95 / 10 10 20 0 Hondo Muni Airport 77 99 76 102 / 10 10 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 95 76 97 / 0 10 20 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 78 91 78 93 / 0 10 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 97 78 99 / 10 10 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 79 99 78 101 / 10 10 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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