Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 2:18 AM   Moonset 3:24 PM

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GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 432 Am Cdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Today - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning and afternoon. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Monday night - South winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Wednesday - South winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Thursday - South winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. Thursday night - South winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 432 Am Cdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis -
weak high pressure will ridge across the northern gulf of mexico and provide mainly light onshore flow for today. Scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms will continue through the day before diminishing this evening. High pressure ridging across the northern gulf and a series of low pressure systems over the plains will allow for modest southerly winds during next week.

FXUS64 KLCH 021750 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1250 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Grids/zones, namely PoP and weather, were updated earlier based on radar trends at the time. Outside the ongoing convection over the Atchafalaya Basin, new development has been slow to get going today with expansive cloud cover limiting heating...although latest radar imagery indicate this trend is ending and convective development is on the uptick.

25

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Rather busy night as short wave moving across along with a speed max has created some upper level divergence to keep going and enhance thunderstorm activity, mainly over south central Louisiana and coastal waters, with radar signatures suggesting very large hail and damaging microburst winds.

Current activity is expected to diminish for the most part by sunrise, although tail end of short wave energy may keep shower activity along the Atchafalaya Basin.

Only minor height rises noted over the forecast area, so upper level ridge will likely not build enough into the forecast area today to preclude shower and thunderstorm activity. Therefore, expect daytime heating to initiate showers and thunderstorms once air mass recovers by late morning/noon time range.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase through the afternoon with an approach of another short wave, along with interactions from numerous mesoscale boundaries.

Once again, a very moist and unstable air mass will be in place, PWAT values will be in the 1.75 to 2 inch range, forecast CAPES between 3000 and 4000 j/kg with Downdraft CAPE between 1000 and 1500 j/kg, to go along with favorable mid level lapse rates.
Therefore, storms that develop will have the potential to produce microburst damaging winds and large hail, and also high rainfall rates that may lead to flash flooding, especially with slow moving cell mergers and possible training along surface boundaries. As of now, a Marginal Risk for both severe storms and excessive rainfall has been outlined for the forecast area.

On Monday, the upper level ridge is expected to start to build into the forecast area. However, still think there will be enough instability and high moisture around to get at least isolated diurnal activity going. There is also another disturbance seen in the west-northwest flow that may reach the forecast area by late afternoon, although guidance does not have a good handle on it.

By Tuesday, indications are that the upper level ridge will build in allow for a decrease in shower activity.

Rua

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

An upper level cutoff trough will center over Alabama by Wednesday morning. Locally, temperatures will still remain around climatological norms near 90F while southerly flow continues across SETX / SWLA. Broad ridging extending across the western Atlantic into the central Gulf of Mexico will advect moisture into the Mississippi Valley, however, signals for widespread precipitation aren't showing up due to a lack of forcing working it's way south to the coast. A very strong vertically stacked upper level low will briefly stall north of Michigan, however, much of the guidance keeps the precipitation north and east of the area. Additionally, forecast soundings indicate the presence of the low level ridge creating enough of stable layer to prevent organized convection. Thursday, there is some indication that stable layer will decrease, thus some isolated POPs return again.

The remainder of the long range continues to contain elements of an unsettled behavior with respect to the unorganized upper air pattern. Friday, the boundary to the north will further sink south across the region, however, guidance does not populate much precipitation given the stronger divergence aloft remains NE of LA.
While the onset of next weekend does not favor any significant precipitation, confidence in the weekend staying rain free is not high.

Kowalski/30

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Expecting VFR conditions to eventually develop across the entire forecast area with ceilings rising with daytime heating. Also expecting convection to become a little more widespread across the whole area, although did temper down expectations to just PROB30 mentions at KAEX/KBPT. Otherwise, a general repeat of past days with with ceilings lowering again late evening/overnight to MVFR levels before recovering after sunrise on Monday.

25

MARINE
Issued at 444 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Weak high pressure will ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico and provide mainly light onshore flow for today with south to southeast winds around 10 to 15 knots. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today into the evening as a very moist and unstable air mass remains in place. Winds and seas will be higher in and near the storms.

An upper level ridge will begin to build in on Monday providing lower chances for showers that will decrease further next week.

High pressure ridging across the northern Gulf and a series of low pressure systems over the Plains will allow for modest southerly winds during next week with wind speeds averaging around 15 knots possibly up to 20 knots, and small craft exercise caution may be headlined at various times when speeds near 20 knots.

Rua

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 88 70 90 72 / 70 30 20 0 LCH 88 75 88 76 / 60 30 20 0 LFT 88 75 90 76 / 70 40 20 0 BPT 89 75 90 76 / 60 20 20 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Mesquite Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:20 AM CDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:17 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:15 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:00 AM CDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:31 PM CDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:22 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:32 PM CDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mesquite Point, Sabine Pass, Texas, Tide feet

Sabine Pass
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Sun -- 01:39 AM CDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:17 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:15 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:01 AM CDT     1.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:32 PM CDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:22 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:23 PM CDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sabine Pass, North, Texas, Tide feet

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