Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bozeman, MT
June 2, 2024 5:02 PM MDT (23:02 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:35 AM Sunset 9:09 PM Moonrise 2:14 AM Moonset 3:55 PM |
FXUS65 KBYZ 022017 AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 217 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
DISCUSSION
Rest of Today through Monday Night...
Several ripples of short wave energy continue to track across our region in a W/SW mid level flow pattern. This will continue to produce scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms through the early evening before most of the activity dissipates...mainly over our southern sections and mountains. Look for breezy conditions in the foothills tonight with considerable high level cloudiness over our area. This will keep lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s overnight.
Ascent will increase thru the day Monday as the next wave approaches. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected by afternoon, with greatest coverage (50-90%) over the west sections of the CWA while the southeast remains dry through the day. Models suggest the cloud cover will keep instability limited to 200-500 J/KG, so thunderstorms will remain weak, but could produce elevated wind gusts (40-50 mph) in our west by late afternoon.
Highs tomorrow will range from the lower 70s west to mid 80s east.
The risk of showers/thunderstorms and gusty winds will spread east and continue Monday evening as the upper short wave trough tracks across northern Montana, pushing the associated cold front east across the high plains. Look for numerous showers and weak thunderstorms Monday evening, lingering in the east/southeast sections late.
Subsidence quickly takes over behind the fast moving weather system Monday night. Downslope flow with downward motion in our west will lead to increasing wind in our foothills late Monday night. 700mb winds increase into Tuesday. Local research tools and NBM guidance indicate a 50-60% chance of wind gusts reaching at least 60 mph in our foothills Tuesday. We have issued a high wind watch from 3 AM Monday night until 9 PM Tuesday evening from Judith Gap to Big Timber
For more information
please see the extended discussion below. BT
Monday Night through Sunday...
A strong upper level jet will be moving over the region Tuesday and Wednesday leading to strong winds both days. 700mb winds will be in the 40-50kt range for locations over the plains and could even approach 60kts for locations over the higher terrain near our gap areas. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature a dry downsloping pattern leading to steep low level lapse rates in the 8-9C/km range. This will create efficient mixing over the plains bringing some of the high upper level winds to the surface. NBM is currently giving most areas across the plains a 50-80% chance of getting a wind gust over 40mph. Wednesday will see slightly lower probabilities for most of the plains with the biggest threat shifting more to the east where locations such as Fallon County will have a 50-70% chance of getting a gust over 50mph. Winds will be strongest in the western gap areas where the NBM is showing a 60-80% chance of getting a gust over 60mph. Winds look to die down significantly for these areas on Wednesday as probabilities drop to 10-20%. Strong winds will be more persistent in the gap areas during the overnight hours as these winds don't rely on daytime mixdown like the plains. A high wind watch has been issued for these areas.
There is good ensemble agreement that the long term will be dominated by ridging leading to a warm and dry pattern. Wednesday and Thursday will see temperatures in the 70s before rising into the 80s for most throughout the longterm. Torgerson
AVIATION
Scattered showers and weak isolated thunderstorms are expected near the mountains and foothills...possibly extending east along the MT/WY border region through early evening. A few of the stronger cells may produce surface gusts to 40 mph. Mountains may be obscured. Much of the activity should die off by 02Z with dry conditions overnight. Overall, VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 055/077 049/074 054/079 050/081 055/083 057/082 056/082 13/T 70/N 00/U 00/U 01/U 11/B 11/B LVM 052/069 041/070 054/078 048/084 053/083 053/081 053/081 18/T 70/N 00/N 00/U 11/B 12/T 12/T HDN 053/081 048/075 052/079 047/082 052/086 056/084 055/084 12/T 70/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 11/U MLS 054/081 050/072 054/074 047/080 051/082 055/083 055/082 12/T 61/N 00/N 00/U 00/U 10/U 11/U 4BQ 053/082 051/072 054/075 047/080 051/083 055/082 054/081 11/B 41/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 11/U BHK 050/082 048/070 049/074 044/078 047/079 050/079 049/078 12/T 51/N 00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U SHR 050/080 045/073 049/078 046/081 051/084 053/082 053/081 11/B 41/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 22/T 22/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...High Wind Watch in effect from late Monday night through Tuesday evening FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 217 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
DISCUSSION
Rest of Today through Monday Night...
Several ripples of short wave energy continue to track across our region in a W/SW mid level flow pattern. This will continue to produce scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms through the early evening before most of the activity dissipates...mainly over our southern sections and mountains. Look for breezy conditions in the foothills tonight with considerable high level cloudiness over our area. This will keep lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s overnight.
Ascent will increase thru the day Monday as the next wave approaches. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected by afternoon, with greatest coverage (50-90%) over the west sections of the CWA while the southeast remains dry through the day. Models suggest the cloud cover will keep instability limited to 200-500 J/KG, so thunderstorms will remain weak, but could produce elevated wind gusts (40-50 mph) in our west by late afternoon.
Highs tomorrow will range from the lower 70s west to mid 80s east.
The risk of showers/thunderstorms and gusty winds will spread east and continue Monday evening as the upper short wave trough tracks across northern Montana, pushing the associated cold front east across the high plains. Look for numerous showers and weak thunderstorms Monday evening, lingering in the east/southeast sections late.
Subsidence quickly takes over behind the fast moving weather system Monday night. Downslope flow with downward motion in our west will lead to increasing wind in our foothills late Monday night. 700mb winds increase into Tuesday. Local research tools and NBM guidance indicate a 50-60% chance of wind gusts reaching at least 60 mph in our foothills Tuesday. We have issued a high wind watch from 3 AM Monday night until 9 PM Tuesday evening from Judith Gap to Big Timber
For more information
please see the extended discussion below. BT
Monday Night through Sunday...
A strong upper level jet will be moving over the region Tuesday and Wednesday leading to strong winds both days. 700mb winds will be in the 40-50kt range for locations over the plains and could even approach 60kts for locations over the higher terrain near our gap areas. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature a dry downsloping pattern leading to steep low level lapse rates in the 8-9C/km range. This will create efficient mixing over the plains bringing some of the high upper level winds to the surface. NBM is currently giving most areas across the plains a 50-80% chance of getting a wind gust over 40mph. Wednesday will see slightly lower probabilities for most of the plains with the biggest threat shifting more to the east where locations such as Fallon County will have a 50-70% chance of getting a gust over 50mph. Winds will be strongest in the western gap areas where the NBM is showing a 60-80% chance of getting a gust over 60mph. Winds look to die down significantly for these areas on Wednesday as probabilities drop to 10-20%. Strong winds will be more persistent in the gap areas during the overnight hours as these winds don't rely on daytime mixdown like the plains. A high wind watch has been issued for these areas.
There is good ensemble agreement that the long term will be dominated by ridging leading to a warm and dry pattern. Wednesday and Thursday will see temperatures in the 70s before rising into the 80s for most throughout the longterm. Torgerson
AVIATION
Scattered showers and weak isolated thunderstorms are expected near the mountains and foothills...possibly extending east along the MT/WY border region through early evening. A few of the stronger cells may produce surface gusts to 40 mph. Mountains may be obscured. Much of the activity should die off by 02Z with dry conditions overnight. Overall, VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 055/077 049/074 054/079 050/081 055/083 057/082 056/082 13/T 70/N 00/U 00/U 01/U 11/B 11/B LVM 052/069 041/070 054/078 048/084 053/083 053/081 053/081 18/T 70/N 00/N 00/U 11/B 12/T 12/T HDN 053/081 048/075 052/079 047/082 052/086 056/084 055/084 12/T 70/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 11/U MLS 054/081 050/072 054/074 047/080 051/082 055/083 055/082 12/T 61/N 00/N 00/U 00/U 10/U 11/U 4BQ 053/082 051/072 054/075 047/080 051/083 055/082 054/081 11/B 41/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 11/U BHK 050/082 048/070 049/074 044/078 047/079 050/079 049/078 12/T 51/N 00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U SHR 050/080 045/073 049/078 046/081 051/084 053/082 053/081 11/B 41/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 22/T 22/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...High Wind Watch in effect from late Monday night through Tuesday evening FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
WY...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBZN BOZEMAN YELLOWSTONE INTL,MT | 10 sm | 66 min | var 04 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 68°F | 43°F | 40% | 29.83 |
Billings, MT,
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